[外電] Mailbag: What's next for rebuilding O's?
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Mailbag: What's next for rebuilding O's?
Beat reporter Spencer Fordin answers fans' questions
By Spencer Fordin / MLB.com
It seems to me that the O's went into the 2008 season to "rebuild" and
started that process with the trades of Miguel Tejada and Erik Bedard. Then
the team had some early success and it seems that Andy MacPhail [the Orioles'
president of baseball operations] didn't want to throw away the season and
was either hesitant to trade other veterans or was asking too much. Either
you bite the bullet and rebuild or you try to compete for the playoffs. What
are your thoughts?
-- Rob S., Guilford, Conn.
My first thought is that your introductory analysis is correct. The Orioles
did in fact call it a rebuilding season, a label they consciously avoided
using in several seasons prior to 2008. But I'm not sure I'd go with the rest
of your thoughts. MacPhail wasn't really seduced by the team's quick start.
He knew he had to follow through on his rebuilding program, most of which is
centered on being patient while the team's best prospects progress through
the Minor Leagues. MacPhail may not have wanted to pull the rug out from
under his veterans in 2008, but he certainly would've pulled the trigger if
he thought he could improve his situation via a trade.
And really, who could he have traded to improve his long-term situation?
MacPhail is relentlessly patient and never got the offer he wanted for Brian
Roberts, and now there's a chance to extend the second baseman to a long-term
contract. The Orioles never really had a chance to deal Jay Payton or Melvin
Mora for prospects, so they kept them in the fold.
The same could be said for veterans Aubrey Huff and Ramon Hernandez, both of
whom might be available on the trade market this winter. MacPhail also might
elect to trade closer George Sherrill if the right situation presents itself.
By waiting and avoiding any rash moves at the deadline, MacPhail preserved
all of his options for an eventful winter.
And now, the Orioles find themselves at a crossroads. They'd like to sign a
few veteran pitchers to help lessen the load on their pitching prospects, but
they don't want to break the bank unless those free agents can help them a
few years into the future. The way MacPhail shops this winter may well tell
you how far away he thinks he is from contention.
Will the Orioles bring back Jay Payton or go younger for a backup outfield
spot?
-- Ryan R., Ocean City, Md.
I don't know that the Orioles could bring back Payton under any circumstance.
The veteran wants to go somewhere where he can play every day, and barring
that, he wants to play for a team that's a little closer to contention.
Payton chafed at part-time play last season, and the Orioles struggled to
keep him happy and keep Luke Scott in the lineup.
Now, he's a free agent, which means Baltimore will likely lose him without
compensation. The Orioles would've entertained trade offers for him last
season, but there was never any team that wanted him badly enough to make a
deal. That ambivalence may well be registered on the free-agent market when
Payton casts about for a starting job.
At any rate, the Orioles do have several options to fill his slot from
within. Baltimore can let Lou Montanez stick as the fourth outfielder,
allowing him to prove whether he can hit big league pitching or whether his
Double-A Eastern League Triple Crown was a mirage. Otherwise, the Orioles
could challenge prospect Nolan Reimold with a big league assignment.
Baltimore also had Minor League veterans Chris Roberson and Tike Redman under
contract last season, and former fan favorite Jeff Fiorentino left the
organization via a waiver claim and came back by the same process. The
Orioles seem set in the outfield, and Payton may well miss the team a little
bit more than it winds up missing him.
Who are the Orioles sending of their top prospects to play winter ball? And
does this help getting any of them closer to the Majors next year as regular
players?
-- Ron C., Baltimore
The Orioles sent a star-studded cast to the Arizona Fall League, a class best
represented by Brian Matusz and Matt Wieters, their two first-round choices
from the last two seasons. And those two were recently recognized by scouting
directors around the league and honored by being named to play in the AFL's
Rising Stars Game, which will take place Friday.
Wieters will likely make his big league debut at some point this season --
perhaps as early as Opening Day -- but Matsuz has yet to pitch professionally
and may have to take things a little slower. Baltimore also sent Reimold to
the AFL, an assignment that may serve as a final primer before gauging how
close he is to the big leagues during Spring Training.
Brandon Snyder, another of Baltimore's top prospects, is also playing in the
AFL, but he's probably still a season or two away from consideration at the
big league level. Snyder has yet to play at Double-A Bowie and will likely be
tested there this season, but the AFL is an early way to test his bat against
some upper-level pitching prospects.
Blake Davis, perhaps the best shortstop prospect within the organization, is
also out in Arizona. Shortstop is a wide open position in Baltimore, and if
Davis thrives in Spring Training, he may put himself in position to play next
year. Of course, that assumes that the Orioles don't sign or trade for a
shortstop, which is a highly speculative position at this point.
Isn't the program Matt Albers is using to strengthen his injured shoulder the
same course that didn't work for Troy Patton? Why would it work for Albers?
-- Buzzy B., Fredericksburg, Va.
Because they have different shoulders. Yes, the rehabilitation program didn't
work for Patton, which is why he went on to have surgery at the end of Spring
Training. But that doesn't mean it won't work for Albers. Several pitchers
have elected to go the strengthening route, including former pitching
prospect Adam Loewen, who had a labrum tear early in his career.
Loewen avoided the surgeon's knife and pitched with a healthy shoulder until
recently, when his elbow gave out under the workload of the regular season
twice in two years. It would take a surgeon to determine whether the two
injuries are related, but one thing is certain: Albers has consulted multiple
doctors who recommended his route before he took it.
And really, he had nothing to lose. If the strengthening program works, he
will have successfully avoided an operation that could put his career in
jeopardy. And if it doesn't, he can always have the surgery at a later point
in time. Nobody knows whether Albers will be fully healthy in Spring Training
-- perhaps not even Albers or Baltimore's training staff.
What we do know is that if he had the surgery, he'd be out at least 10-12
months trying to rehabilitate. And even then, it's uncertain whether his
shoulder would ever be the same. Elbow operations may be almost routine in
today's game, but as noted in last week's mailbag, medical science is still
searching for a better way to fix the shoulder.
--
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