[外電] Mailbag: O's future looks bright
Mailbag: O's future looks bright
Beat reporter Spencer Fordin answers fans' questions
By Spencer Fordin / MLB.com
Is there a possibility that first-round Draft pick Brian Matusz may not be
signed before the Aug. 15 deadline? If so, can we even call this a rebuilding
organization?
-- Brett C., Pikesville, Md.
Of course there's a possibility, especially with less than two weeks
remaining until the deadline. The Orioles absolutely thought it would be
easier to sign Matusz than it has been, and the overwhelming odds still say
that he'll eventually reach an agreement. After all, if he doesn't, Matusz
would have to wait a year before he could be drafted again.
The Orioles already went through this kind of brinksmanship with Matt
Wieters, who was selected with the fifth overall choice in the first round
last year and didn't agree to terms until there were quite literally minutes
remaining before the deadline. Matusz was supposed to be much easier to sign
than Wieters, but for whatever reason that hasn't been the case.
Here's the silver lining: The Orioles are hardly alone in not being able to
reach terms with their first-round choice. Seven of the top 10 picks have yet
to sign, including the second, third, fourth, fifth and seventh overall
selections. Matusz, who was selected fourth by Baltimore, is therefore right
where he belongs, which in this case means working on proper market value.
Both sides -- Matusz and the Orioles -- have more to gain by reaching an
agreement than they do by missing out. Baltimore clearly needs the southpaw's
talent, which is regarded as substantial and potentially fast-rising. And
Matusz needs a place to play and would lose leverage if he had to go back
into the Draft, not to mention waste a year of his career.
Eventually, you can count on Matusz and the Orioles to reach an intersection
of self-interest.
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With Ramon Hernandez entering the final year of his contract and the success
of Wieters in the farm system, what are the chances of the Orioles changing
the guard behind the plate next season?
-- Lee M., Alexandria, Va.
Wieters has been as good as advertised -- if not better -- and right now the
question isn't whether he'll be ready for the big leagues next year, it's how
soon the Orioles want to hand him the job. The switch-hitter signed too late
last year to play in an organized full-season league, but he's absolutely
crushed the competition in his first full professional season.
The backstop batted .345 with 15 home runs and a .448 on-base percentage in
69 games for Class A Frederick, and now he's batting .371 with six home runs
and a .468 on-base mark in his first 36 games for Double-A Bowie. The Orioles
may yet test Wieters at Triple-A Norfolk, and a September callup to the
parent club doesn't seem out of the question.
Either way, the Orioles may well decide that Wieters is ready to play in the
big leagues by Opening Day. The last time Baltimore had this kind of
offensive prospect was Nick Markakis, and he was rushed as quickly as he
could handle it. Markakis played just 33 games for Bowie before he got the
big league call, and all he's done is hit since then.
In short, Wieters is a virtual lock to join the Orioles sometime next season
and an odds-on bet to break camp after Spring Training. Hernandez could be
invaluable as a tutor during his first season, but Baltimore could also elect
to trade the veteran and let Wieters learn as he goes. Either way, the
Orioles appear to have a great one on their hands.
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When Brandon Snyder was drafted a few years ago, he was hailed as the catcher
of the future. With Wieters in the organization, what is the amended plan for
Snyder?
-- Ian S., Freeport, Bahamas
Snyder, the 13th overall selection in the 2005 First-Year Player Draft, has
revived his status the old-fashioned way: By swinging the bat. The youngster
has hit .296 with 11 home runs and 65 RBIs for Class A Frederick, and he's
done so while mostly playing first base. A shoulder injury prematurely ended
his catching career, and he'll go as far as his bat takes him.
Unlike both Matusz and Markakis, Snyder was neither a top 10 selection nor a
college player. Snyder was chosen out of high school, which severely
increased his learning curve and the time it might take him to make it to the
Major Leagues. Even now, three years after being drafted, the infielder is
still just 21 years old and has yet to play at Bowie.
Snyder will turn 22 in November, and he remains one of Baltimore's brightest
position player prospects. In fact, he's outplayed fellow high pick Billy
Rowell, the ninth overall selection in the 2006 First-Year Player Draft.
Rowell, thought by many to be the best prep power hitter in that Draft, has
struggled to a .229 average with five homers for Frederick this year.
With numbers like that, the Orioles may elect to let Rowell go back to
Frederick next year, while Snyder will almost assuredly play for Bowie. And
if he moves up quicker than Rowell, he may even get a chance at third base.
Snyder will face a real test at Double-A, and if he hits there, it won't be
long before the Orioles start plotting his path to the big leagues.
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How is the outfield going to work in the next few years with players like
Markakis and Adam Jones already in and players like Nolan Reimold at Triple-A
Norfolk and Luis Montanez at Double-A Bowie?
-- Brian D., Jacksonville, Fla.
The outfield's going to work pretty simply. When Jones and Markakis are
healthy, they'll be in the lineup. The Orioles also have left fielder Luke
Scott under team control for the next few seasons, but he could slot in as
designated hitter if Reimold or Montanez makes an impression. And Reimold,
who has 19 homers for Bowie, will likely get the first shot.
The Orioles like Reimold's ability to play an all-around game and think he
could slot in as a left fielder for years to come. Montanez, meanwhile, is
more of an organizational soldier who has crushed his way to a career year.
The former first-round pick recently hit for the cycle and is a candidate for
Most Valuable Player honors in the Double-A Eastern League.
Montanez is currently slugging .601 for Bowie, and he's only slugged within
100 points of that mark once in his Minor League career. This year may well
be a blip on the radar, but it may also be evidence of Montanez learning how
to use his substantial talents. Only time will tell, but the Orioles would
love to see him sustain his progress at Norfolk.
Regardless of who steps up to take left field, the Orioles can be reasonably
certain that they have two-thirds of their outfield filled for the
foreseeable future. Jones and Markakis promise to be a dynamic pairing in the
outfield for the next several seasons, giving Baltimore a substantial
building block toward fielding a competitive team in the near future.
From:http://tinyurl.com/6ktkc3
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