[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Orioles Preview
Athlon Baseball
2009 Baltimore Orioles Preview
The Orioles are committed to their rebuilding project, which bodes well for the
future — but not the 2009 season. Not by a long shot, which also is how they’
ll be viewed when the experts handicap the AL East race. Eleven straight losing
seasons should give way to 12. Last place seems to be waiting for them again
because of a thin rotation and their failure to sign hometown slugger Mark
Teixeira. The Orioles are just biding their time until their young pitching
prospects are ready to contribute at the major league level. And they’re in
the wrong division. They can’t even count on the Rays to cushion their fall.
Rotation
It begins with Jeremy Guthrie and tails off considerably. Guthrie is the
undisputed ace after going 10–12 (the most wins on the staff) with a 3.63 ERA
and 120 strikeouts in 190.2 innings. He’s also the only pitcher who’s
guaranteed a spot in the rotation heading into spring training. The Orioles
attempted to add a few veterans who could eat up innings and give the prospects
at Triple-A Norfolk more time to develop. They signed lefthander Mark
Hendrickson, who might be used as a swingman. He’s 50–63 with a 5.07 ERA in
215 career games, including 7–8 with a 5.45 ERA for the Marlins last season.
Koji Uehara became the first Japanese native to sign with the Orioles. He’s an
eight-time Japanese All-Star, but an unproven commodity on U.S. soil.
Lefthander Rich Hill was acquired from the Cubs for Garrett Olson. Olson
dominated in the minors but struggled with the Orioles, posting a 6.65 ERA in
132.2 innings last season. Hill has much the same history with the Cubs.
Radhames Liz, rushed to the majors, is trying to prove that his future isn’t
in the bullpen. Matt Albers was a valuable middle reliever before suffering a
torn labrum. He bypassed surgery and will try to win a starting job. Manager
Dave Trembley can sort through a pile that includes Brian Burres, Brian Bass,
Hayden Penn, Danys Baez and lefthander Chris Waters.
Bullpen
The pen is easily the team’s strength and its deepest area. George Sherrill
saved 31 games and made the All-Star team in his first season as closer, and
Chris Ray returns from Tommy John surgery to assist in that role. Former
starter Jim Johnson emerged as a dominant setup man, and the Orioles are hoping
that left-handed specialist Jamie Walker, who pitched through arm pain much of
the season, will rebound from a poor season. Dennis Sarfate is a power arm for
the middle innings. Baez returns after undergoing Tommy John surgery and could
resume his usual relief duties if he doesn’t make the rotation. Jim Miller
also is in contention after making eight appearances as a rookie. So is Kam
Mickolio, another rookie last season who posted a 5.87 ERA in nine games with
the Orioles, and a 1.80 ERA in 17 Triple-A appearances. Burres and Bass could
be long relievers.
Middle infield
Assuming second baseman Brian Roberts isn’t traded before Opening Day, the
Orioles are solid up the middle. Roberts plays Gold Glove-caliber defense and
is a doubles machine; he had a career-high 51 last year and has had 40 or more
in four of the past five seasons. He’s a prototypical leadoff hitter who gets
on base and then steals them. The Orioles upgraded the shortstop position and
stopped the revolving door by signing free agent Cesar Izturis to a two-year,
$5 million contract. Izturis won a Gold Glove in 2004 and made the All-Star
team the following year with the Dodgers. He has no power but isn’t an
automatic out.
Corners
Third baseman Melvin Mora got a cortisone injection in his sore right shoulder
during the break and had a monster second half, hitting .376 with a .656
slugging percentage. He topped 20 homers for the third time his career and 100
RBIs for the second time. The Orioles need another productive season from the
11th-year veteran. Aubrey Huff, the team’s MVP last season, could move from DH
to first base. He won his first Silver Slugger Award and the Edgar Martinez
Award as the best DH, but he might be needed at first. His defense wasn’t as
bad as his reputation.
Outfield
The Orioles appear to be set in center and right for a long time. Center
fielder Adam Jones, acquired from the Mariners last winter in the Erik Bedard
trade, is a five-tool star in the making. He just needs more experience. He hit
.270 in his first season with more than 100 at bats. Right fielder Nick
Markakis deserved a Gold Glove last season after leading the majors with 17
outfield assists, and he also set career highs in six offensive categories,
including average (.306) and doubles (48). Luke Scott, acquired from the Astros
in the Miguel Tejada trade, must have felt like the Third Tenor despite hitting
a career-high 23 home runs. He will get plenty of at-bats playing either in
left or as the designated hitter.
Catching
Ramon Hernandez was traded to the Reds during the winter meetings, and the job
eventually will belong to Matt Wieters, the fifth overall pick in the 2007
draft and Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year. The Orioles are
expected to start him out at Triple-A and promote him during the summer.
Veteran Gregg Zaun and Chad Moeller, who signed a minor league deal, will
bridge the gap until Wieters is called up.
DH/Bench
Ty Wigginton was signed to a two-year deal and will get a full-time share of
at-bats, mostly at DH. He is primarily a corner infielder with some experience
in the outfield. He has played 120 games at second base over the years, and
could be an option there should Roberts be dealt. He hit 23 homers for Houston
last season in 386 at-bats. The Hernandez trade brought Ryan Freel in return,
and he’ll come in handy. He can play all three outfield positions and back up
at second and third base. The challenge will be keeping him in one piece. He
plays at break-neck speed and is always a risk to break his neck. Lou Montanez
won the Triple Crown in the Eastern League despite an August call-up. He will
try to hang on as a spare outfielder. He can hit, but his defense has come into
question, especially the accuracy on his throws and his routes on fly balls.
Donnie Murphy was signed as a potential spare infielder. He has starting
experience and can back up Izturis. The Orioles love Oscar Salazar’s bat, and
he raked in the Venezuelan Winter League, but he’s not much help in the field.
He’s primarily a corner infielder, which isn’t a dire need.
Management
Team president Andy MacPhail clearly is calling all the shots for this
ballclub. Everything funnels to him. And his commitment to building through the
draft, strengthening the farm system and improving foreign scouting have the
organization pointed in the right direction. His critics say he’s too
deliberate, but he has a track record that’s hard to dispute. And he has the
absolute trust of owner Peter Angelos, which is no small accomplishment.
Trembley, with his extensive minor league background and no-nonsense approach,
seems like the right man to guide a team that was the fourth-youngest in the AL
last year and is going to rely heavily on its young pitchers and position
players.
Final analysis
It will be a small miracle if the Orioles contend in 2009. Their rotation is a
major concern. It’s too soon to bring up the kids. If history is any
indication, the club will start fast, then fade in August and September due to
a serious lack of depth. The bullpen will be taxed. Fans will be told to remain
patient. And 2010 can’t come soon enough for them. But there’s a solid core
of young talent here with Markakis, Jones and Wieters. And Roberts either gives
them a first-rate leadoff hitter or the promise of more prospects in a trade.
The Rays have proved that you don’t have to be a big spender to win. The
Orioles need to make it their mantra.
Statistician
11 >> Consecutive losing seasons for this franchise.
21 >> Runs scored by the Orioles in Jeremy Guthrie’s 12 losses.
51 >> Doubles by Brian Roberts, breaking his own AL record for a
switch-hitter.
10 >> Orioles who made their major league debuts last season.
3 >> Runners that Jim Johnson allowed to score of the 20 inherited.
6 >> Players who started at shortstop in 2008, beginning with Luis Hernandez.
82 >> Extra-base hits for Aubrey Huff, who led the AL.
17 >> Outfield assists for right fielder Nick Markakis, tops in the majors.
.304 >> Lefthanders’ batting average against lefty specialist Jamie Walker.
Difference Maker
Even if he starts the year in the minors, catcher Matt Wieters could make a
huge impact, and in a variety of ways. He’s got all the tools — a
switch-hitter with power from both sides, a strong and accurate throwing arm
and leadership qualities that belie his age. The job is supposed to be his by
the break, if not sooner, after he dominated at two levels of the minors and
followed up with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League. And he’ll give
fans a reason to come to Camden Yards and get excited about this team again.
Beyond the Boxscore
September blues Talk about staggering to the finish: The Orioles went 5–20 in
September, a .200 winning percentage that ranked as the second-worst in club
history for that month. The 2002 club went 4–24 (.143).
First timers Pitchers Jim Johnson and Radhames Liz recorded their first major
league wins on consecutive June days. According to the Elias Sports Bureau,
this was the first such occurrence since September 1978, when the Orioles’
Dave Ford and Sammy Stewart beat the White Sox.
Big fly Luke Scott’s home run onto Eutaw Street on Sept. 8 was the eighth ball
to land beyond the right field flag court, the most in one season since Camden
Yards opened in 1992. His 420-foot blast off Detroit’s Freddy Doisi on July 19
was the first walk-off homer to bounce on Eutaw Street.
Sunday struggles Forget Mondays: The Orioles had a bad case of the Sundays,
going 4–21 on the final day of the weekend. Their futility included a 1–12
mark on the road. They lost 15 consecutive Sunday games from April 13 through
July 20 to tie the Diamondbacks’ record (15 straight Saturdays in 2004).
Youngsters Based on Opening Day rosters, including players on the disabled
list, the Orioles were the fourth-youngest team in the AL at an average age of
28.74 years. They trailed only the Athletics (28.20), the Rays (28.24) and the
Twins (28.28).
Control issues Orioles pitchers allowed 869 runs in ’08, with 213 reaching
base via a walk or hit batter. By comparison, the Orioles scored 782 runs, with
141 reaching via walk or hit batter.
Royal domination A May 10 win over Kansas City gave the Orioles 12 straight
victories against the Royals. To find the last time that the Orioles defeated
an opponent more than 12 times in a row, you have to go all the way back to
1978-79, when the Blue Jays were beaten in 15 straight games.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — Brian Matusz, a lefty from the University of San Diego,
was more impressive in the Arizona Fall League than his 2–4 record and 4.73
ERA suggest. Matusz, the No. 4 overall pick in the draft, struck out 31 and
walked only seven in 26.2 innings. He also showed a willingness to learn,
seeking out veterans and coaches for advice. Scouts compare him to the Phillies
’ Cole Hamels, and he should move quickly through the system. Matusz is
expected to start out at Single-A Frederick and perhaps earn a midseason
promotion to Double-A Bowie. It’s not inconceivable that he’ll be part of the
Orioles’ rotation in 2010.
2007 Top Pick – Matt Wieters, C, Georgia Tech
Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year hit .355 with 27 HRs and 91
RBIs at two levels.
2006 Top Pick – Billy Rowell, 3B, Bishop Eustace (N.J.) Prep
Ninth overall pick turned 20 after struggling most of year at Single-A.
2005 Top Pick – Brandon Snyder, 1B, Westfield (Va.) High School
Former catcher and third baseman had monster second half at Single-A and put up
impressive numbers in AFL.
2004 Top Pick – Wade Townsend, RHP, Rice
Re-entered the draft and later signed with Rays.
2003 Top Pick – Nick Markakis, OF, Young Harris College
The seventh overall pick is one of the top right fielders in baseball and
getting better.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
RH Chris Tillman (20)
Former Mariners farmhand went 11–4 with 3.18 ERA at Double-A. Could join
Orioles over summer.
OF Nolan Reimold (25)
Second-round pick in 2005 finished tied for second in Eastern League with 25
homers. Will compete for left field job.
RHP David Hernandez (23)
Led Eastern League in strikeouts (166) and ranked third in ERA (2.68 ERA).
RHP Brandon Erbe (21)
Rebounded from rough 2007 season to lead Carolina League in strikeouts with 151
at age 20.
RHP Brad Bergesen (23)
Was unheralded Single-A pitcher to start year; organization’s Minor League
Pitcher of the Year to end it.
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