Top 10 Prospects
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1. Matt Wieters - C - DOB: 05/21/86 - ETA: June 2009
.345/.448/.576, 15 HR, 40 RBI, 47/44 K/BB, 1 SB in 229 AB (A+ Frederick)
.365/.460/.625, 12 HR, 51 RBI, 29/38 K/BB, 1 SB in 208 AB (AA Bowie)
.301/.407/.438, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 16/12 K/BB, 1 SB in 73 AB (AFL)
Now we wait. Wieters' first pro season couldn't have gone much better, as the
switch-hitter from Georgia Tech compiled a 1053 OPS and showed just as much
polish on defense as expected. The Orioles declined to give him a September
callup and are expected to send him down for the first two months of 2009,
guaranteeing that he won't be arbitration eligible until after 2012 or a free
agent until after 2015. Some Triple-A time won't hurt, but Wieters certainly
seems ready. He hits for power from both sides of the plate and could have
some 30-homer seasons in the majors even with catching chores limiting him to
450-500 at-bats per year. Wieters should also prove to be an above average
defender, though because his arm isn't particularly strong, he may not record
the flashy caught stealing numbers that would make him an annual Gold Glove
contender. He will have several All-Star appearances in his future.
2. Chris Tillman - RHP - DOB: 04/15/88 - ETA: July 2009
11-4, 3.18 ERA, 115 H, 154/65 K/BB in 135 2/3 IP (AA Bowie)
Tillman, who went 6-7 with a 5.26 ERA in the California League in 2007,
appeared to be a raw product after coming over from Seattle as a big part of
the Erik Bedard trade. The Orioles pushed him up to Double-A anyway, and he
excelled immediately. Tillman went 7-3 with a 2.94 ERA in the first half, and
while his ERA did increase in June and July, he bounced back to go 4-1 with a
1.80 ERA and a 51/11 K/BB ratio in 35 innings in August. Tillman was more
consistently in the 91-95 mph range with his fastball last year, and his
curveball continued its development into one of the top strikeout pitches in
the minors. Below average command remains an issue and he's yet to turn his
changeup into a quality third pitch, so the Orioles are taking the right tact
in declining to rush him into their 2009 rotation. He might get his first
opportunity in June or July.
3. Brian Matusz - LHP - DOB: 02/11/87 - DOB: April 2010
2-4, 4.73 ERA, 26 H, 31/7 K/BB in 26 2/3 IP (AFL)
It wasn't a midnight deal, but the Orioles went through the same process with
Matusz that they did with Wieters a year earlier. After making him the fourth
overall pick in the 2008 draft, they waited until the Aug. 15 deadline to get
him signed to a major league contract worth $3.2 million. That meant Matusz
wouldn't have a chance to pitch in the minors, but he did debut in the AFL
and was rather impressive there. Matusz, who came out of the University of
San Diego, throws 89-92 mph and has four potential major league pitches,
including an excellent changeup that he'll have to use frequently against all
of the quality right-handed hitters in the AL East. The command is there to
make him a candidate to succeed in the majors this year. Still, it's more
likely that he'll have to wait until 2010 for an extended look. He has No.
2-starter potential.
4. Jake Arrieta - RHP - DOB: 03/06/86 - ETA: Sept. 2009
6-5, 2.87 ERA, 80 H, 120/51 K/BB in 113 IP (A+ Frederick)
The Orioles lacked second-, third- and fourth-round picks in 2007, but they
made up for it by grabbing Wieters and landing another first-round talent in
round five. Arrieta, who slipped because of bonus demands, ended up signing
for $1.1 million and he was a big success in the AFL in 2007 and in the
Carolina League last season. Possessing a low-90s fastball and a sharp
slider, he's very tough on right-handers. He does need to come up with a
better changeup to use against lefties, but he has No. 3 starter potential.
5. Brandon Erbe - RHP - DOB: 12/25/87 - ETA: July 2010
10-12, 4.30 ERA, 120 H, 151/50 K/BB in 150 2/3 IP (A+ Frederick)
Erbe, the Orioles' No. 1 prospect two years ago, rebounded from an awful 2007
to limit hitters to a .216 average as a repeater in the Carolina League.
Improved command was the key, as he went from 4.7 walks per nine innings to
3.0. Erbe is still quite young and his mid-90s fastball hasn't gone anywhere,
so there's good reason for optimism. He's made progress with a changeup that
was quite raw a couple of years ago. However, he does need to get more
consistent with his No. 2 pitch, a late-breaking slider. Even though he's
been around longer than the rest of the Orioles' top pitching prospects, he's
the one member of the group with no real chance of contributing this year.
6. David Hernandez - RHP - DOB: 05/13/85 - ETA: Aug. 2009
10-4, 2.68 ERA, 112 H, 166/71 K/BB in 141 IP (AA Bowie)
Thanks to a big curveball and a deceptive delivery, Hernandez has fanned 10.5
batters per nine innings in the minors the last two years. Of course,
pitchers with that kind of profile have a long history of flaming out in the
majors. Hernandez, though, does have a legitimate low-90s fastball that
should give him a chance to survive as a No. 4 starter. First, he needs to
get his walk rate back to where it was in the lower minors. He'll give up his
share of homers in the majors, especially at Camden Yards, so he can't be
issuing free passes every other inning.
7. Nolan Reimold - OF - DOB: 10/12/83 - ETA: Aug. 2009
.284/.367/.501, 25 HR, 84 RBI, 82/63 K/BB, 7 SB in 507 AB (AA Bowie)
.261/.352/.478, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 20/11 K/BB, 2 SB in 92 AB (AFL)
Healthy again after missing much of 2007 with a strained oblique, Riemold was
more solid than spectacular at Double-A Bowie. It looked like he helped his
case with the Orioles by cutting back on the strikeouts. However, that didn't
stop the team from acquiring Felix Pie as another potential long-term
outfielder. Reimold's Triple-A performance this year will go a long way
towards determining whether he's still looked at as a potential regular or if
he's just a fourth outfielder. He hits lefties well and is a strong defensive
corner outfielder capable of playing center when necessary, so there will be
a place for him in the majors come 2010.
8. Billy Rowell - 3B Orioles - DOB: 09/10/88 - ETA: 2011
.248/.315/.368, 7 HR, 50 RBI, 104/36 K/BB, 1 SB in 375 AB (A+ Frederick)
That he was a 19-year-old in the Carolina League serves as a pretty good
excuse for his rough season, both Rowell was quite a disappointment. He hit
in the .180s against lefties for the second straight season, and while he did
raise his overall average some in the second half, he never showed much in
the way of power. Rowell, the ninth overall pick in the 2006 draft, still has
a great deal of offensive potential. His swing promises 25- or 30-homer
ability down the line, and he did enter last season with a .293 average as a
pro. If he were a legitimate third baseman, he'd rank higher on this list.
Unfortunately, he's probably going to have to make it at first base.
9. Zach Britton - LHP - DOB: 12/22/87 - ETA: 2011
12-7, 3.12 ERA, 118 H, 114/49 K/BB in 147 1/3 IP (A- Delmarva)
Britton struggled some after being drafted in the third round in 2006 and was
held out of full-season ball in 2007 as a result, but he was excellent in the
Sally League last year. He got more than two outs on the ground for each one
through the air, and his strikeout rate went up as the season went on. While
a low-90s sinker is Britton's bread and butter, both his slider and changeup
have made ample progress. He's another possible middle-of-the-rotation
starter for the Orioles.
10. Kam Mickolio - RHP - DOB: 05/10/84 - ETA: July 2009
2-1, 1 Sv, 4.70 ERA, 39 H, 40/22 K/BB in 38 1/3 IP (AA Bowie)
1-0, 2 Sv, 1.80 ERA, 13 H, 23/9 K/BB in 20 IP (AAA New Orleans)
0-1, 0 Sv, 5.87 ERA, 8 H, 8/4 K/BB in 7 2/3 IP (Baltimore)
The 6-foot-9 Mickolio lacks polish for a guy entering his age-25 season, but
he has a huge weapon in his moving 92-95 mph fastball. Even if he never
figures out how to hit the corners, he should be a decent major league
reliever while walking four batters per nine innings. If he gains better
command and tightens up his slider, he could be a closer.
Next five: 1B Brandon Snyder, RHP Chorye Spoone, 2B L.J. Hoes, LHP Troy
Patton, OF Lou Montanez
Snyder looks like a better prospect now than he did when he ranked ninth a
year ago, and he probably would have made 25 of the 30 top 10s, which shows
just how much stronger the O's system has gotten. … Spoone and Patton are
both working their way back from shoulder injuries. Though they're close in
the rankings, I like Spoone's chances quite a bit better than Patton's at
this point. … Hoes, a 2008 third-round pick, hit .308/.416/.390 with 10
steals in 48 games for the Rookie GCL Orioles in his pro debut.
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