[討論] JS Orioles Top 20 Prospects for 2012
Baltimore Orioles Top 20 Prospects for 2012 http://ppt.cc/x2db
1) Manny Machado, SS, Grade A: He wasn't quite the same after the knee injury
and he was rushed to High-A, but I am still very impressed with the overall
balance of skills and tools, and he's still just 19.
2) Dylan Bundy, RHP, Grade A-: Number One starter potential, but I'd like to
see how his talent translates into pro ball before going with a higher grade.
As high school pitchers go, I am very confident in him, but until we see him
pitch in pro ball I'll go with position-player Machado.
3) Jonathan Schoop, INF, Grade B: Borderline B+. We will have to see where he
settles in positionally. I think the bat is going to develop even more than
people currently anticipate. Might go with the straight B+.
4) Jason Esposito, 3B, Grade B-: Excellent defender at third base, could win
gold gloves if he hits enough to play regularly. Has power, but approach/plate
discipline are questionable.
5) Robert Bundy, RHP, Grade B-: Doesn't have as much talent as his younger
brother but a solid prospect, could develop into number three or four
starter/workhorse type, or perhaps a power reliever if changeup gives trouble.
6) Dan Klein, RHP, Grade B-: Knows how to pitch, good stuff, persistent
shoulder problems are the issue here. If he stays healthy it is plausible he
could make the team out of spring training if given the opportunity.
7) Nick Delmonico, 3B, Grade B-: Excellent power potential, but he didn't hit
as well in high school as he should have and glove at third base will need
work. Potential to rank several spots higher next year if he adapts properly.
8) Parker Bridwell, RHP, Grade C+: High-ceiling arm, scouts love his ceiling
and projectability but still learning how to pitch and integrate his secondary
pitches with sinking fastball.
9) Ryan Adams, 2B, Grade C+: He has some flaws (strikeouts), but he's also got
pop and the ability to handle second and third base. Not a star, but I expect a
long career.
10) Glynn Davis, OF, Grade C+: Bold ranking for me, but there is something
about this guy I like. Local undrafted talent signed for $100,000. Blazing
speed, somewhat raw at the plate but will already take some walks, and 6-3, 170
body offers power projection. NY-P sources were very impressed.
11) L.J. Hoes, OF, Grade C+: Hits for average, make contact, can swipe a base,
but lacks the power for corner outfield. Some people like him better than this
but he looks like a tweener-type to me. Less risk than Davis and closer to the
majors but not as much upside.
12) Clay Schrader, RHP, Grade C+: One of several high-ceiling relief arms with
big strikeout numbers but control issues.
13) Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Grade C+: We need to see him at a higher level than
the Gulf Coast League, but he's deceptive and well ahead of most 18-year-olds
in pitchability.
14) Oliver Drake, RHP, Grade C+: Nice fastball/slider combination, could
develop into workhorse starter or more likely a reliever, added to 40-man
roster.
15) David Baker, RHP, Grade C+: Live arm, secondary pitches coming around,
performed well in Low-A, under-the-radar sleeper due to limited innings but a
breakthrough candidate.
16) Mike Wright, RHP, Grade C+: Nice power sinker, good slider, another guy who
could be an impressive reliever or a less-dominant-but-workhorse starter.
17) Trent Mummey, OF, Grade C+: Forgotten man due to missing season with
injury, but when healthy I think he has a broader range of skills than Matt
Angle and Kyle Hudson, his competitors in "future fourth outfielder" contest
although they will get chances before he does.
18) Kyle Simon, RHP, Grade C+: Ground ball expert from 2011 draft, former
University of Arizona ace.
19) Joe Mahoney, 1B, Grade C: He's proven he can mash Double-A pitching, but he
turns 25 in May and some scouts still doubt that he'll be anything more than a
Quadruple-A slugger.
20) Gabriel Lino, C, Grade C: Strong defensive catcher, hit well in the GCL but
78 at-bat sample is small. Orioles sources regard him as a major sleeper. I
might bump him up to a C+ which would put him ahead of Mahoney and maybe higher.
OTHERS: Matt Angle, OF; Matt Antonelli, 2B; Xavier Avery, OF; Roderick
Bernadina, OF; Zach Davies, RHP; Jaime Esquivel, RHP; Pedro Florimon Jr, SS;
Mychal Givens, INF; Randy Henry, RHP; Matt Hobgood, RHP; Trent Howard, LHP;
Kyle Hudson, OF; Greg Miclat, INF; Connor Narron, 3B; Wynn Pelzer, RHP; Ashur
Tolliver, LHP; Tyler Townsend, 1B; Sebastian Vader, RHP.
This isn't a great system and there is a distinct lack of star potential once
you get past the top three, but it is NOT empty and progress has been made in
recent years. There is good depth in Grade B-/C+ types, and some of them (and
some of the Grade Cs) are young and/or projectable enough to rank higher next
year with proper development.
The ranking of the C+ guys is problematic. Everything #10 and later is quite
fluid, and you are going to see a lot of variation in Orioles prospect lists
beyond the top few.
I am particularly interested in the development of arms like Bridwell,
Schrader, Rodriguez, and Baker. Sebastian Vader is also a prospect to watch
although we need to see him outside the GCL and non-Orioles sources aren't as
intrigued as Baltimore fans or sci-fi geeks. Vader's batterymate Lino is also
quite interesting as a potentially strong defender with power in his bat. Also
keep track of young pitchers Jaime Esquivel and especially Zach Davies.
There are several role players ready or almost ready for the majors, with
Adams, Klein, Hoes, Drake, Mahoney, Angle, and Hudson all plausible
contributors in the next year or two. None of them are going to be
cornerstones, but they can all do something. The ranking of Glynn Davis is
aggressive. He's risky, but has upside, my intuition is binging positive on him
and word-of-mouth is good.
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