[Note] Arbitration Eligibles

看板Orioles作者a88152660 (Erictseng)時間12年前 (2013/10/28 01:08)推噓9(9推 0噓 11→)

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Arbitration Eligibles: Baltimore Orioles By Tim Dierkes [October 24, 2013 at 9:05am CST] Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Orioles are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows. 根據MLBTR預估，擁有仲裁資格的球員薪水大致如下： ‧ Jim Johnson (5.165): $10.8MM ‧ Chris Davis (4.061): $10MM ‧ Matt Wieters (4.129): $7.9MM ‧ Bud Norris (4.068): $5MM ‧ Tommy Hunter (4.066): $3.1MM ‧ Brian Matusz (3.156): $2.1MM ‧ Nolan Reimold (4.004): $1.2MM ‧ Troy Patton (3.150): $1.2MM ‧ Steve Pearce (4.116): $1.1MM ‧ Chris Dickerson (3.133): $700K ‧ Dan Johnson (3.168): Contract includes $800K club option for 2014. If declined, MLBTR's projected arbitration salary is equal to the league minimum $500K. Davis put together a monster, MVP-caliber season: .286 average, 53 home runs, 138 RBI, and 103 runs scored as the Orioles' first baseman. It wasn't from completely out of nowhere, as he hit 33 home runs in 2012. Only 16 other players in baseball history have hit as many home runs in a season, and Davis led MLB in RBI this year as well. Davis今年表現得非常好，這並不完全是矇到的：他在去年已經有33支全壘打的紀錄。在紀錄上，只有十六位球員有跟他一樣或甚至更多的全壘打，而且他的打點數也是大聯盟第一。 This year Matt and I created what we call the Kimbrel Rule in our arbitration projections: a player's raise cannot be more than $1MM more than the previous record raise. Normally Davis' stats would justify a salary close to $11MM, meaning a raise of $7.5MM. The largest raise on record we've found is Jacoby Ellsbury's $5.65MM bump, so with our new rule we're capping Davis' raise at $6.65MM to put him at $9.95MM. We'll call it an even $10MM, since that's a nice benchmark for agent Scott Boras. Can Boras get there? After hitting 54 home runs in 2010, Jose Bautista sought an $8.1MM raise in arbitration, with the Blue Jays countering at $5.2MM for a midpoint raise of $6.65MM, exactly where we've capped Davis. Bautista ultimately signed a five-year, $65MM deal instead, which I don't think is going to happen with Davis and Boras. Boras has done some two-year arbitration year deals, which is more feasible if the Orioles want to avoid the arbitration process after 2014. 我和前面提到設計出預測工具的Matt提出了一個Kimbrel Rule來解釋一個情形：一個球員薪水的漲幅不會比之前的最高紀錄多出1MM。之前的漲幅紀錄是Ellsbury的5.65MM，因此即使預測出來的薪水會落在接近11MM，這意味著漲幅高達7.5MM，但最終加薪額度應該還是會落在6.65MM，因此最終預估的薪資是接近9.95MM，或是會到10MM，因為他有一個好的經紀人Boras。2010年，在擊出54發全壘打後，Bautista希望能夠加薪8.1MM，藍鳥則提出5.2MM，其中點正好是6.65MM。Bautista最終簽了個五年65MM的約，不過我認為這種事不會發生在Davis和Boras身上。或許金鶯可以考慮直接用合約綁人，以避免掉未來的仲裁。 On the strength of a second consecutive 50 save season, closer Jim Johnson is due a large raise as well. This one is more difficult to stomach, as Johnson's salary would exceed our predicted average annual value of free agent closers Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit, and approach that of an elite closer in Joe Nathan. Johnson led MLB in saves in 2012 and tied for the lead in 2013, but he also led MLB in save opportunities each year. This year, in particular, his 84.7% success rate was pedestrian, ranking 23rd among those with at least 15 opportunities. There's an argument to be made that if Kevin Gregg, Brad Ziegler, or Ernesto Frieri received 59 opportunities this year, they would have saved 50 games as well. 有著連兩季50次救援成功的表現，Johnson應該也要有實質上的大幅加薪獎勵。不過這有點難讓人接受，他的薪水應該會超越在FA裡的Grant Balfour和Joaquin Benoit，到達Nathan那種境界。Johnson連續兩年救援成功都是大聯盟第一，不過救援機會相對的也是最多。尤其是今年，成功率只有平凡的84.7%，在所有有15次機會的投手中排在23位。更有人指出，如果讓Gregg、Ziegler和Frieri這種級數的人來投，應該也會有同樣的表現。 That's not to say Johnson is a bad reliever -- his ERA has been under 3.00 in each of the past three seasons, he maintains a low walk rate, and he gets tons of groundballs. Though he blew nine saves in 2013, any team would be happy to have him in their bullpen in a late inning role. The problem is the salary inflation brought about by saving 101 games over the last two seasons. This doesn't seem to concern Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette, who told Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com in September the O's will tender Johnson a contract and intend to bring him back in 2014. "He's established himself as one of the top closers in the game," explained Duquette, and I suppose a one-year, high-salary deal is more favorable than the three years he might get on the open market. 這並不代表Johnson是個很爛的救援投手，起碼他的ERA在過去三年都壓在三以下，並且將保送率維持得很低，而且製造出一大堆滾地球。雖然他今年失手了九次，不過任何球隊都還是很歡迎擁有這樣一位後援投手。問題在於薪水隨著兩年來救援成功101次暴增。不過這對Duquette來說並不成問題，他表示將會留下Johnson。而且我認為一紙一年但高薪的合約會比他有可能在球員市場裡能得到的複數年合約來的更好。 Wieters is another big Boras case, a year after beating our most aggressive salary projection by almost 20%. The Orioles offered an extension of at least five years around April, but it seems to have fallen short of the player's requirements. Though his counting stats and durability were good in 2013, Wieters' already-low batting average took a dip, as did his walk rate. The result was an unimpressive .287 on-base percentage. Still, Wieters is in line for another solid raise, with free agency looming after 2015. It might be time to consider a trade, if only the Orioles had a ready replacement behind the dish. Wieters是Boras的另一個大案子。金鶯在季初曾提出至少五年的約打算綁人，不過看來似乎和要求落差不小。雖然帳面上的數字和耐操這點還是不錯的，但Wieters的打擊率創新低，保送率也一樣，結果是一個非常難看的0.287上壘率。同時，Wieters的薪水還會繼續上漲，直到2015年球季結束進FA後。這可能是一個考慮交易他的好時機，如果金鶯已經有了備胎（Steve Clevenger？）的話。 Norris, acquired from Houston at the trade deadline, bumped his strikeout rate significantly with Baltimore but also saw his rates of walks, home runs, hits allowed, and ERA rise. He's still penciled in for a 2014 rotation spot. Hunter's first full year in relief went well, with 21 holds. He'll be joined again in the bullpen by Matusz and Patton, who remain affordable. 交易期限前從太空人那找來的Norris到了金鶯之後投得跌跌撞撞的，但他應該仍然會是明年先發輪值的一員。Hunter第一個完全擔任牛棚投手的球季表現得不錯，他會跟Matusz和Patton這些球隊仍負擔的起的人一起留在牛棚裡。 The Orioles removed Pearce from their 40-man roster in December, and he rejoined the club on a minor league deal and made the team out of Spring Training. He had two DL stints for a wrist injury, but was otherwise solid with a .261/.362/.420 line in 138 plate appearances. I think he'll stick around. Pearce有些傷病，不過同時在138個打席中也有.261/.362/.420這樣不錯的表現，我認為他仍會是陣中的一員。 Reimold, Dickerson, and Dan Johnson are non-tender candidates. Reimold has been limited to 56 games over the last two seasons due to neck issues. Dickerson joined the big club in April after signing a minor league deal in the offseason. He was designated for assignment in July and accepted an outright assignment, getting his 40-man roster spot back in September. Johnson spent most of the year with the Yankees' Triple-A club, landing a minor league deal with the Orioles in late August and later getting into three September games for the Major League team. Reimold、Dickerson和Dan Johnson都是不續約的人選。Reimold因為頸傷，過去兩年只出賽56場。Dickerson在四月簽了一紙小聯盟合約，在七月被DFA，最後在九月又回到四十人名單中。Johnson在八月底跟金鶯簽了紙小聯盟合約，並在九月出賽三場。 If the Orioles tender contracts to Jim Johnson, Davis, Wieters, Norris, Hunter, Matusz, Patton and Pearce, they're looking at an estimated $41.2MM for eight arbitration eligible players. 如果金鶯留下Jim Johnson、Davis、Wieters、Norris、Hunter、Matusz、Patton和Pearce，這八個人大概要花掉41.2MM。資料來源：http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/arbitration-eligibles-baltimore-orioles.html -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.46.202.42 ※ 編輯: a88152660 來自: 114.46.202.42 (10/28 01:10) ※ 編輯: a88152660 來自: 114.46.202.42 (10/28 01:12) ※ 編輯: a88152660 來自: 114.46.202.42 (10/28 01:14) ※ 編輯: a88152660 來自: 114.46.202.42 (10/28 01:16)

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