"Can we say Peavy sucks?"
(Stats used are prior to his July 21 start)
Based on his strikeout rate, unintentional walk rate, and the types of batted
balls he's allowed, Peavy should be doing well. Basically, he's allowed 3
more singles, 7 more doubles, 3 more triples and 3 more home runs than you'd
expect given his batted balls allowed and an average fielding team in a
neutral park. Now, the three home runs could be explained away by the fact
that the park has been kind to home run hitters this year. The extra hits
that stayed in the park are strange given that the Padres turn batted balls
into outs better than any team in the Majors other than the Tigers.
Combine that with the fact that he's grouped those hits, walks and outs in a
most unfortunate way and you're looking at an ERA not in line with how Jake
has pitched.
There's a few ways one could disagree with this.
1) You believe that a line drive allowed by one pitcher is more/less likely
to be an out/hit than one allowed by another pitcher. Read: it's a pitcher's
skill that determines if a ball lined to center is caught or not.
2) You believe that batted ball data is not tracked well enough to be used in
any real analysis. Debatable.
3) You believe that component ERA means less in determining how well a
pitcher pitched than actual ERA. Read: Pitcher A and Pitcher B both allow
three singles and a double, but the fact that Pitcher B allowed them Double,
Single, Single, Single instead of Single, Single, Single, Double means he
pitched better than Pitcher A.
4) You really believe Peavy sucks and there's no convincing you otherwise.
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