The Bell Tolls for Heath
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With veteran Trevor Hoffman possibly ending his 16-year relationship with the
San Diego Padres, the familiar late-game tune of AC/DC’s “Hell’s Bells”
may no longer blare through the speakers at Petco Park. However, another
Bell might step into the all-time save leader’s role: Heath Bell (may I
suggest Metallica’s “For Whom The Bell Tolls”?) The 31 year-old had to
wait an awfully long time to get his shot in the majors, but he has done
excellent work for the Fathers over the past two seasons.
Bell was originally selected by the Tampa Bay (then) Devil Rays in the 69th
round of the 1997 draft. Suffice it to say, the 1583rd pick in the draft was
not considered much of a prospect at the time. The hefty right-hander never
signed on the dotted line with Tampa, and he went undrafted the following
June. Bell was eventually scooped up by the New York Mets.
Despite his lack of scouting support, Bell often dominated in the minor
leagues. In 468.1 frames, he whiffed 10.4 batters per nine innings, while
issuing a solid 2.5 BB/9. Despite the more than 4-to-1 K/BB ratio, the 6-3,
240 pounder did not make his Queens debut until 2004, at the age of 26. In
24.1 innings for the Mets that season, Bell struck out 27 and surrendered 6
free passes.
The next two seasons, Bell would dominate the International League while
shuttling back and forth between Norfolk and New York. His peripherals were
excellent (78/24 K/BB in 83.2 combined innings with the Mets), but Bell was
the recipient of some insanely poor luck on balls put in play: his BABIP was
.374 in 2005 and an astronomical .394 in 2006. With every hitter turning into
Ted Williams when the ball was put in play, Bell’s ERA was well over five
during ‘05 and ‘06.
Apparently feeling that Bell was lousy as opposed to unlucky, the Mets
shipped Heath (along with lefty Royce Ring) to the Padres for Jon Adkins and
Ben Johnson following the 2006 season.
Finally liberated, Bell would post one of the better relief seasons in the
game in 2007. Shouldering a very heavy workload (appearing in 81 games and
tossing 93.2 innings), Bell posted a 2.50 Fielding Independent ERA (FIP).
Using a mid-90’s heater and a low 80’s slider, Bell punched out 9.8 batters
per nine innings and walked 2.88. Bell led all relievers in innings pitched
and appeared in the 6th-most games. His 3.47 WPA ranked 6th among all
relievers, sandwiched between Joakim Soria and newly-minted Met Francisco
Rodriguez.
Bell’s 2008 season wasn’t as dominant, though he still turned in another
quality campaign. With 8.19 K/9 and 3.23 BB/9, Bell posted a 3.34 FIP. His
fastball usage increased from 64% to 72%, but the offering lost over a tick
in terms of speed (down to 93.4 MPH). His Contact% increased from 75.4% in ‘
07 to 79.5% in ‘08, suggesting that his stuff was down a bit compared to his
crazy 2007 season.
After his frequent usage in 2007 and more heavy lifting during the first half
of the ‘08 season (46 G, 50.1 IP during the first half), Bell seemed to tire
down the stretch. After posting a 42/13 K/BB ratio before the All-Star break,
the Oceanside, California native struggled with his control late in the
season (29/15 K/BB, 19 R in 27.2 IP during the second half). Bell’s heater
peaked at 94.4 MPH during June, but he was down to 92.3 MPH by September.
Take a look at Bell’s pitch F/X data from 2007 compared to 2008:
2007
Fastball: -4.3 X, 9.36 Z
Slider: 5.34 X, -2.69 Z
2008
Fastball: -1.32 X, 9.44 Z
Slider: 4.22 X, -1.91 Z
(X is horizontal movement. A negative X number means that the pitch is moving
in toward a right-handed hitter, while a positive X means that the pitch is
moving away from a righty hitter (in to a lefty). Z is vertical movement- the
lower the Z number, the more the pitch “drops” in the strike zone.)
In addition to a drop in speed, Bell’s fastball lost about 3 inches of
horizontal movement, meaning the pitch was not tailing in on right-handers
nearly as much. His slider also wasn’t quite as sharp, with less break away
from righties and less “tilt” down in the zone. Perhaps it was just a blip
on the radar or the product of inherently small samples when dealing with
relievers, but Bell went from stifling righties in ‘07 (.157/.216/.203) to
giving up a good deal of extra base hits against them in 2008
(.254/.307/.435).
Bell may well be in line to take over for Hoffman in San Diego, and he has
produced one otherworldly season followed by another impressive showing in
2008. However, there are some danger signs here: Bell has tossed a combined
171.2 innings over the past two seasons, as strenuous a workload as any
reliever has faced. His strikeout rate took a pretty large dip, down about
1.6 per nine innings, and his fastball lost both speed and movement. Perhaps
an offseason of rest will help abate some of these trends, but it seems
possible that Bell’s work over the past two years will go down as the
highlight of his career.
As is, Bell is still a pretty good reliever. Just don’t expect the 2007
version to come trotting out of that bullpen gate, no matter what tune he
settles on as his ninth-inning ditty.
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