[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Padres Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 San Diego Padres Preview
Thank goodness for San Diego’s great weather, because otherwise, it’s shaping
up to be a long, painful summer at the ballpark. Coming off a 99-loss season
that was their worst in 15 years, the Padres spent the offseason shedding
salary due to owner John Moores’ difficult divorce and could open the season
with a $40 million payroll. Moores is exploring selling all or part of the team
as he and wife Becky split up their assets to comply with California’s
community property laws. Ace Jake Peavy, owed $63 million during the next four
seasons, likely would be with Atlanta or the Chicago Cubs if not for the fact
the Padres had so little leverage in trying to move his big contract. Trevor
Hoffman’s long, record-setting stint with the Padres ended when the Padres
pulled a $4 million offer off the table. Last place in the weak NL West seems
almost assured.
Rotation
Peavy is expected to be the Opening Day starter, although the cash-strapped
Padres will entertain any offers from teams willing to take on the ace’s big
contract. The Padres’ party line is that they lost 99 games with Peavy, but
they certainly didn’t lose 99 games because of Peavy. He had a dropoff from
his Cy Young Award-winning season of 2007 but remains a fiery competitor who’s
not afraid to voice his opinion about the team’s direction. No. 2 starter
Chris Young will be looking to rebound from an excruciatingly painful season.
His nose was broken when he was hit by a line drive by Albert Pujols in late
May, sidelining him for two months. He went on the DL again in August with a
forearm strain. The rotation lost Greg Maddux’s encyclopedic knowledge,
enthusiasm and dry sense of humor when he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers
and then retired in December. Following Peavy and Young will be Cha Seung Baek,
Josh Geer and Wade LeBlanc, although that could change after spring training.
Bullpen
Hoffman is off to Milwaukee, meaning Petco Park will be a much less raucous
place in the ninth inning. Baseball’s all-time saves leader was offended when
the club abruptly pulled its $4 million offer off the table, apparently because
Hoffman had sought a meeting with Moores, CEO Sandy Alderson and GM Kevin
Towers about his future and the direction the club was heading. Hoffman’s
departure leaves durable setup man Heath Bell as the Padres’ closer. Bell has
two career saves, a mere 552 behind Hoffman’s career record. Cla Meredith, who
has appeared in 153 games in two years with the Padres, will fill the vacant
setup role. Overall, the bullpen struggled in 2008, and several jobs will be up
for grabs in spring training.
Middle infield
Three spring trainings ago, the Padres thought the homegrown double-play tandem
of Khalil Greene and Josh Barfield would serve them for years, just as Alan
Trammell and Lou Whitaker did for the Detroit Tigers for nearly two decades.
Well, Barfield was gone after the 2006 season and Greene was traded to the St.
Louis Cardinals during this past offseason. That leaves Luis Rodriguez as the
incumbent at shortstop and the newly acquired David Eckstein at second base.
Rodriguez hit a career-high .287 last year, his first in San Diego, but he has
never had more than 210 at-bats in his four-year big league career. The
34-year-old Eckstein had more lucrative offers from other teams, but signed
with San Diego because the Padres offered a full-time job at second base, his
preferred position.
Corners
This is the strength of the Padres’ defense. First baseman Adrian Gonzalez,
who is just as valuable with his glove as he is with his bat, was San Diego’s
only All-Star in 2008 and won his first Gold Glove Award. Manager Bud Black
likes Gonzalez’s aggressive defense, and Gonzo loves to turn the 3-6-3 double
play. A quiet leader, Gonzalez eclipsed the 30-homer, 100-RBI mark for the
second straight year. He was seventh in the National League with 36 home runs
and third with 119 RBIs, and he hit .279. Plus, he got the added bonus of
playing with his older brother, Edgar. Kevin Kouzmanoff continues to be solid
at third base. Although he hit just .194 during the last month of the season,
he hit .260 overall and had a career-high 23 home runs. He had arthroscopic
surgery on his right shoulder in mid-November and is expected to be ready by
the start of spring training.
Outfield
For those who were confused when the Padres exercised right fielder Brian Giles
’ $9 million option while in the midst of a salary dump, consider the fact
that the dude can flat out get on base. Not exercising Giles’ option would
have been counter to the Padres’ offensive philosophy, and they would have had
to pay him a $3 million buyout if they decided they didn’t want him back. That
’s not to say the team won’t try to move Giles before the trading deadline as
it did last year, when Giles nixed a trade to the Boston Red Sox. Giles had a
.398 on-base percentage, one of baseball’s best. He led the Padres with a .306
average, hit 40 doubles and 12 homers, had 63 RBIs and 87 walks. The Padres
finally brought up their top prospect, left fielder Chase Headley, who hit nine
homers but also struck out 104 times in 331 at-bats. Jody Gerut appears to have
settled in at center, and Will Venable is another solid young player.
Catching
Rookie Nick Hundley had an impressive debut for the Padres after injuries
sidelined Josh Bard and Michael Barrett. Hundley has both confidence and a
strong throwing arm, the latter of which was sorely lacking in recent seasons.
The Padres inked veteran Henry Blanco late in the offseason as insurance and
mentor for Hundley. Blanco can throw as well as anyone, but hitting and running
have never been his strong suits.
Bench
If Venable, Cliff Floyd and Scott Hairston can stay healthy, this could be one
of the strengths of the team. The Padres clearly missed Geoff Blum coming off
the bench last year, for either late-game defensive purposes or to pinch hit.
Hairston has hit his share of clutch home runs in his Padres’ tenure, and
Venable showed during his September call-up that he’s capable of handling big
league pitching. Floyd was instrumental in the Rays’ success last season
serving as their primary DH. Infield depth will come from Edgar Gonzalez,
Travis Denker and Matt Antonelli.
Management
Towers has always done the best he could on a limited budget, working the trade
front and trolling for free agent bargains. There have been speed bumps,
though, like the acquisition of Jim Edmonds, who was injured and unproductive
before being released in early May. The Padres waited until the day after the
season ended to announce that Black would be back for his third season as the
manager. There’s a general feeling that Black, who is 152–173 in two years,
is doing the best he can with the roster he’s been given. His calm, steady
demeanor is good for a team such as the Padres, but expect Black’s hair to get
grayer and grayer.
Final analysis
The New York Mets’ modern record of 120 losses in 1962 probably is safe, but it
’s alarming how quickly the Padres went from contenders to resembling the
likes of Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Moores’ divorce seemingly has the front
office in gridlock and the fans wondering how bad the on-field product is going
to be this season. As it is, a good deal of the farm system made the jump to
the big leagues last season. The Padres resembled a Triple-A team for much of
2008, and fans are bracing for a lot more of the same. Topping last year’s
total of 63 wins might make the 2009 season a success.
Beyond the Boxscore
Sign of the times The Padres are one of a handful of teams that chose not to
raise ticket prices during the economic downturn. While holding the line on
season ticket prices, the Padres announced that through a reclassification of
many seat locations, the price of tickets for about 10,000 seats will go down,
some by as much as $8 per ticket. More than 36 percent of season ticket
accounts are potentially affected.
Hall call Two players with Padres ties were on the Hall of Fame ballot for the
first time this winter. Rickey Henderson, one of the game’s greatest leadoff
hitters who was with San Diego in 1996 and part of 1997, and again in 2001, was
expected to be voted in. He is baseball’s career leader in stolen bases and
runs scored. While with the Padres in 2001 he broke Ty Cobb’s record for runs
scored — on a home run, no less — and got his 3,000th hit on the last day of
the season, which happened to be Tony Gwynn’s last game. Also on the ballot
was Greg Vaughn, who hit 50 home runs in 1998, the last time the Padres reached
the World Series.
Roster moves There was an interesting addition to the 40-man roster, and a
notable deletion. Matt Bush, the No. 1 pick overall in the 2004 draft, was
added to the 40-man as a pitcher. He was drafted as a shortstop, but his march
to the majors has been slowed by arm surgery and off-field problems. Removed
from the 40-man roster was right-handed pitcher Clay Hensley, who surrendered
Barry Bonds’ record-tying 755th home run on Aug. 4, 2007.
Happy anniversary The Padres will celebrate their 40th anniversary in 2009. The
anniversary logo will feature the Swinging Friar, which debuted as the Pacific
Coast League Padres’ official insignia in 1961 and was utilized by the big
league Padres from 1969 through 1984. After a hiatus, the logo returned in
1995, followed by the Swinging Friar coming to life in the form of a mascot in
1996.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — The Padres were elated they were able to grab Wake
Forest first baseman Allan Dykstra — who went to San Diego’s Rancho Bernardo
High — in the first round of the June draft. But his entry into pro ball was
delayed for two months because of concerns about hip surgery he had in high
school. The two sides finally agreed to a deal just before the deadline for
unsigned draft picks. The power-hitting first baseman gives the organization
depth at a position where its best player, Adrian Gonzalez, currently starts.
2007 Top Pick — Nick Schmidt, LHP, Arkansas
Missed entire 2008 season after elbow surgery; pitched in Dominican
instructional league.
2006 Top Pick — Matt Antonelli, 3B, Wake Forest
Has made the move to second; called up to bigs in September but struggled at
the plate.
2005 Top Pick — Cesar Carrillo, RHP, Miami
Added to 40-man roster after bouncing back from having elbow surgery in 2007.
2004 Top Pick — Matt Bush, SS, Mission Bay (Calif.) High School
Is now a right-handed pitcher who was claimed off waivers by Toronto.
2003 Top Pick — Tim Stauffer, RHP, Richmond
Missed all of ’08 with a shoulder strain and was outrighted to Triple-A
Portland.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
1B Kyle Blanks (22)
Organization’s Minor League Player of Year jumps to Triple-A. Hit .325 with 20
homers and 107 RBIs in Double-A.
CF Cedric Hunter (21)
Slated for Double-A after hitting .318 with 11 HRs, 84 RBIs in Single-A.
RHP Mat Latos (21)
Will start out at Class-A Lake Elsinore, sometimes a springboard to San Diego.
OF Jaff Decker (19)
Went from preps to hitting .352 with five home runs and 34 RBIs in rookie ball.
OF Kellen Kulbacki (23)
Sandwich round pick in ’07 draft slated for Lake Elsinore or San Antonio.
Statistician
4 >> Consecutive winning seasons for the Padres before last year’s debacle.
3 >> Players in Padres history with consecutive 30-HR, 100-RBI seasons,
including Adrian Gonzalez.
$8 >> Cost, in millions, of the Padres’ Dominican Republic Baseball Academy.
11 >> Padres who hit their first big league homer in 2008.
15 >> Padres who recorded their first major league hit in ’08.
99 >> Losses for the Padres, their most since losing 101 in 1993.
36 >> Stolen bases for the Padres in 2008, last in the majors and 21 behind
the 29th-place Pirates. No Padre swiped double-digit bags.
552 >> Saves in a Padres uniform for Trevor Hoffman, who owns the big league
record with 554.
.398 >> Brian Giles’ on-base percentage last season, which ranked sixth in the
National League.
.317 >> Team on-base percentage for the Padres in ’08, worst in the majors.
Difference Maker
Heath Bell’s first task as the Padres’ new closer is going to be picking a
new song. AC/DC’s ‘’Hells Bells,’’ which blared for 10-plus seasons to
announce Trevor Hoffman’s arrival from the bullpen, is going to have to be
retired. Bell is big, durable, hard-throwing and appears to be up to the
unenviable job of replacing an icon. The former Met has two career saves in the
majors — both coming in 2007, his first year with the Padres — but he
notched 108 saves over nine minor league seasons.
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