[轉錄][外電] Paying Big For Posey

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※ [本文轉錄自 Celtics 看板] 作者: SexyCassell (其實我很帥) 看板: Celtics 標題: [外電] Paying Big For Posey 時間: Thu Jul 17 22:55:18 2008 More than a pocketful for Posey in this lucrative deal By John Hollinger (ESPN Insider) July 16, 2008 http://0rz.tw/9a4si 來看看ESPN的專家對posey這筆交易的看法 ----------------------------------------- You knew this was coming -- the inevitable overreaction to a role player on a championship team in free agency. Every year there's one guy whom teams can't stop fawning over, and this year it was James Posey. Sure, he was an integral part of championship teams for both Miami and Boston, but as with a lot of players who win rings it can be hard for us to look at him rationally. That's why role players on title winners tend to get unusually generous contracts, and Posey appears to be the latest example. The same guy who inked a two-year deal (the second was a player option) for just a portion of the midlevel exception last summer to join the Celtics suddenly finds himself enriched with a four-year, $25 million deal by the Hornets. If that seems excessive for a 31-year-old who hasn't averaged more than 8.1 points per game in any of the past four seasons, it's because it is. It's true that Posey brings three things to the table: defense, rebounding and 3-point shooting. He's not an all-defense guy, but he's an above-average defender who can play multiple positions, and that's certainly helpful. So are the 3s -- in his past three campaigns he's hit 40.3 percent, 37.5 percent and 38.0 percent from downtown. And he's an underrated defensive rebounder who had the third-best defensive rebound rate among small forwards last season. But those strengths need to be seen in the context of the bigger picture. The guy has all but abandoned shooting anything besides a 3 -- two-thirds of his shots were triples, the fourth-highest rate in the league and the highest among nonguards -- so despite the 3s, he's a fairly inert offensive player. And, as I mentioned, he's a 31-year-old who will be handsomely paid 'til age 35. Nobody wanted to pay him this kind of dough when he was 30, and his production wasn't any different last year -- just the result in June. And since this is so hard for people to remember, I'll say it again: The Hornets aren't paying for what Posey gave the Celtics last year, or what he gave the Heat in 2006, but for what he can potentially give the Hornets from 2008 to 2012. And that production is likely to diminish substantially from its already modest levels. Comb through the books and try to find perimeter players who played well until 35 -- it's tough. Now try to find some who played well 'til that age after scoring single figures in their 20s. Good luck. For better insight into Posey's future, let's take a look at what happened to some similar players -- those who rated as statistically similar based on their performance at the same age, played primarily on the wing and were in his league as a defender. The top names on that list are Bryon Russell, Dan Majerle, Jaren Jackson, Rick Fox and Raja Bell. ‧ Majerle declined sharply starting at 30 and had his last useful season at 32. ‧ Jackson had a quality season at 32 but played 25 games the rest of his career. ‧ Russell lost it at 31 and never got it back, though he managed to hang around for four more years. ‧ Fox played reasonably well until 33 and then lost it, hard, and was out of the league by 35. Swim deeper in the similarity pool and you'll find similar stories from Walter McCarty, Shandon Anderson, Lucious Harris, Doug Christie, Eddie Jones and Aaron McKie. Yes, you'll find a couple exceptions if you look hard enough, most notably Mario Elie and Bruce Bowen. But the big-picture takeaway is that most players decline sharply between ages 31 and 35, and if Posey wasn't that good at 31 he's likely to be unplayable by the time he's 35. That's why nobody else wanted to give him four guaranteed years. First, it doesn't address their main weaknesses. New Orleans badly needs additional frontcourt depth and it seemed only reasonable that it would use the midlevel exception to address that need. If not a frontcourt player, one presumed the Hornets would at least use the midlevel to target a shooting guard, where Morris Peterson was up and down this past season. Perhaps they think Posey can play the 2 full time, but that seems a major stretch for a guy who has played almost exclusively the 3 and 4 with Miami and Boston. Second, Posey creates a playing-time problem because he's a natural 3 who can swing to the 4 in small-ball lineups -- just like their 2007 first-round pick, Julian Wright. Presumably Wright will now be buried on the bench -- even though he was immensely productive in his limited minutes last season and figures to be better in his second season. As for Boston, losing Posey certainly was a blow, but it was correct not to match the Hornets' overreaction. If Tony Allen comes back healthy he can replace a lot of the defensive mettle Posey provided, while the hope is that rookies J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker can also fill in some of the departed production. And if those options don't work out, of course, it's easier for the Celtics to sign or trade for a replacement if they're not saddled by a long-term midlevel commitment to Posey. So I'm not a big fan of his move. The Hornets have the nucleus of an outstanding team with Chris Paul, David West and Tyson Chandler, but I worry that they're forcing the issue with big-money veteran signings like Posey and Peja Stojakovic two years ago instead of a more patient approach. The fact that this move didn't address any apparent need, while overpaying a player who seems certain to decline, only makes it more puzzling. New Orleans has enough talent on hand that the Hornets may very well make a deep playoff run anyway, but it's hard for me to see how this improved their odds much. ------------------------------ 以下是阿陸仔的翻譯，經本人修正整理如下：每當一支球隊奪得總冠軍之後，隊中的角色球員不可避免的會受到過度吹捧。每年都有一個傢伙被其他球隊趨之若鶩，今年的這個傢伙是James Posey。的確，在熱火和塞爾提克的奪冠過程中他都起到了很重要的作用，但是一旦他戴上了冠軍戒指，我們就很難理性的看待他的價值。這就是那些冠軍隊的角色球員往往能夠獲得肥約的原因，Posey就是最新的一個例子。去年夏天和塞爾提克簽下兩年合約時，他的薪水還只有中產階級合同金額的一半，今年夏天，他突然發現自己可以從黃蜂那裏得到一份4年價值2500萬的大合同。給一位場均得分不超過8.1分的31歲老將這樣一份肥約，實在有些過分。沒錯，Posey的防守，籃板以及三分能力能夠幫助黃蜂。他並不是一個只會防守的肉盾，而是一個能力在平均水平以上的防守型搖擺人。過去三個賽季，他的三分球命中率分別是 40.3%，37.5%，38.0%。而且他還是一個被低谷的後場籃板好手，上賽季他的籃板效率排在聯盟所有小前鋒中的第三位。但是他只有在一支強隊中才能展現以上優點。他有浪投三分的毛病，他的所有出手中有三分之二是三分球，這個比例是聯盟所有球員中第四高的。不管他的命中率有多好，他的進攻態度的確有些懶惰。而且，他已經31歲“高齡”，直到35歲時，他都可以領著一份非常體面的薪水。上賽季，他的資料並沒有有什麼大的變化，僅從常規賽來看，沒有人會想給這樣一個30多歲的老將那麼多的錢，但是6月份的結果使情況發生了改變。在此，我不得不強一點：黃蜂花的這筆錢並不是因為Posey在塞爾提克或者熱火奪冠期間作出的貢獻，而是因為他在2008-2012年為可能會黃蜂做出的貢獻，這種貢獻很有可能會越來越小。翻一下NBA名冊，你就會發現35歲還能有出色表現的球員屈指可數。至於那些20多歲時得分只有個位數的球員中幾乎沒有人能夠在35歲打出高水準。為了更好的預測Posey的未來，我們來看看那些年齡，資料，場上位置都與他類似的球員在職業生涯末期的表現。這份名單中包括Bryon Russell, Dan Majerle, Jaren Jackson, Rick Fox ,Raja Bell. Bell僅僅比Posey大一歲，上賽季他的狀態明顯下滑；Jackson在32歲那年打了一個不錯的賽季，但是接下來的幾個賽季他總共才打了25場比賽；Russell從31歲開始失去狀態，再也沒有能夠找回，雖然他一直混到35歲才退役；在33歲之前，Fox一直表現不錯，但是從那以後他就開始下滑，最終在35歲時退役。還有很多例子，比如Walter McCarty, Shandon Anderson, Lucious Harris, Doug Christie, Eddie Jones and Aaron McKie.。當然，你可以找到一兩個例外的人，最著名的就是Mario Elie and Bruce Bowen。但是絕大多數球員都是在31歲到35歲之間開始下滑的，如果Posey在31歲之前沒有達到Bowen那種狀態，那麼他很可能在35歲之前退役。這就是其他球隊不願意給他四年保障合同的原因。此外，從黃蜂的前景來看，我對這筆交易還有兩點疑問：首先，簽下Posey並沒有填補黃蜂陣容中的最大漏洞-內線板凳深度，要想解決這個問題，黃蜂起碼得付出一份中產階級合同。如果找不到好的內線替補，鑒於上賽季Morris Peterson起伏不定的狀態，黃蜂就應該把這筆錢招來一個得分後衛。也許他們認為Posey能夠出任首發得分後衛，但是Posey在熱火和塞爾提克期間主要是在大小前鋒兩個位置上搖擺，要他打得分後衛顯然有些勉為其難。其次，Posey引起了黃蜂內部在上場時間分配上的矛盾，黃蜂去年選中的首輪新秀Julian Wright 和Posey位置重疊，新賽季Wright可能會要在板凳上虛度光陰，即便上賽季他在有限的上場時間裏效率非常高，很多人也看好他今年會有很大進步。對塞爾提克而言，失去Posey當然是一大打擊，但是他們不匹配黃蜂報價的決定是正確的。如果Tony Allen保持健康的話，他能夠攬下Posey走後留下的大部分防守任務，J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker能夠分擔一部分。如果以上三人都不堪重用，塞爾提克也能通過先簽後換的方式找到一個合適的替代者。我並不看好黃蜂的這個簽約。黃蜂有一套非常傑出的核心組合Chris Paul, David West and Tyson Chandler，但是我擔心類似Posey和Peja Stojakovic的巨額爛合同會影響球隊以後的引援工作。這筆交易並沒有解決黃蜂的當務之急，只是給了一位元狀態鐵定會下滑的老將一份過高的合同。黃蜂已經有了向明年的西部冠軍發起猛烈衝擊的資本，我實在看不出這筆交易對他們有多大的幫助。 ---------------------------------------- 基本上我個人是部份同意這個專家的論點雖然我也很喜歡POSEY，不過POSEY要的長約和價碼老實說我覺得是有稍微多一點了儘管很多人都說很值得囧嘛~~見仁見智囉 # -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.230.86.208

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