[外電] The New Orleans Pelicans’ Biggest Pro

看板Pelicans (新奧爾良鵜鶘)作者eliczone (C'est la vie)時間12年前 (2013/12/27 18:44)推噓12(12推 0噓 20→)

留言32則, 9人參與討論串1/1

http://0rz.tw/YjCry I am about to introduce a ground-breaking concept, so prepare to be amazed. In the game of basketball, there are only three ways (excluding the clock expiring at the end of a quarter) that a possession can end: a made shot, a missed shot + defensive rebound, or a turnover. The defense’s objective, therefore, is to force one of the latter two options. Wild, right?! 在籃球比賽，只有三種方式結束一回合：投進，沒進加上防守籃板，或者失誤。防守的目的就是要造成後面兩種結果，對吧？ To date, the Pelicans have forced their opponents into turning the ball over on 16% of their possessions, which ranks in the top third of all NBA defenses. However, their overall defensive rating of 105.4 points allowed per 100 possessions is 6th worst in the NBA. The resulting conclusion, then, is simple – when the Pelicans are not forcing turnovers, they are giving up a lot of made shots. Why have they been so bad at shot defense? Let’s take a look. 到目前為止，鵜鶘製造對手的失誤率為16%，排名第三高。但是他們整體防守率是第6爛，每一百回合會失105.4分。所以很簡單可以導引出一個結論，當鵜鶘沒辦法製造對手犯規時，他們失了太多分。為什麼他們在投籃防守方面這麼爛呢？ Shot Locations 投籃位置 So where are these shots coming from? With the season about a third of the way complete, we’re at a point where hot streaks and cold spells will largely have had enough time to level off, which means that there is a high likelihood that opponents haven’t just been getting lucky with ill-advised attempts. The numbers appear to support this hypothesis as well: the Pelicans force their opponents into shooting only 38.3 percent of all shot attempts between the rim and the 3-point line, fourth lowest in the NBA. For comparison ’s sake, the Bulls and Pacers lead the league by forcing about 49% of their opponents’ shot attempts from this distance. To make matters worse, New Orleans’ opponents are making about 40.5% of those shots, which is 6th highest in the NBA. That number can be somewhat fluky, however, so the #1 goal should be forcing more shots from this area regardless of previous teams ’ success rates. 所以這些投籃是從哪裡來的？球季已經進行三分之一，所以代表著對手不是只是運氣進球。鵜鶘讓對手在籃框和三分線之間的投射比例只有38.3%，排名第四低。來跟公牛和溜馬比一下，他們讓對手在這個距離的投籃有49%，全聯盟最高。更糟的是，紐奧良的對手在這些投射中還命中了40.5%，排行第六高。數字可能有點運氣成份，所以最重要的目標就是要讓對手在這個距離投更多籃，儘管對手的成功率很高。 Now that we know where the shots are NOT coming from, we can easily infer where they are coming from – either right at the rim or from 3-point range. New Orleans allows 27.4% of their opponents’ total field goal attempts from 3-point range, 8th highest in the NBA. While that’s not great, they defend the 3-point shots they do give up at about the league average rate, so the team’s three point defense is a little below average but likely isn’t as much of an issue as previously thought. 現在知道這些投射不是來自哪裡，那就可以很簡單知道是來自哪裡 - "要不是在籃框附近不然就是三分線後"。紐奧良讓對手有27.4%的投射在三分線後，排名第八高。儘管這不是很好的成績，他們在防守三分的時候放棄掉的投射比例是在聯盟平均，所以球隊對於三分的防守是低於聯盟平均，但很可能這不是問題所在。 Finally, we come to New Orleans’ defense on shots taken at the rim. The Pelicans allow 34.3% of opponents’ total field goal attempts from the restricted area, 8th highest in the NBA. Unlike the team’s mediocre 3-point defense, however, they compound this issue with poor interior defense on these shots, allowing opponents to make them at a rate of 61.5% (22nd in the NBA). 最後，就來到了紐奧良對於籃框周圍的防守。鵜鶘讓對手在三秒區內的投射比例為34.3% ，聯盟第八高。不像球隊中庸的三分防守，他們讓對手在這邊的命中率高達61.5%，聯盟排行第22。 Additional Scoring Opportunities The Pelicans allow the 7th worst effective field goal percentage (FG% weighted for the added value of a 3-pointer) of 51.4%. Despite everything detailed above, that ranking doesn’t appear to be bad enough to result in the league’s 6th worst defense given how good the team is at forcing turnovers. So what gives? As it turns out, there are two additional factors which are dragging the Pelicans’ defense down even further. 鵜鶘對手的EFG%是第七糟，有51.4%。儘管上述的每一項都列出來，但也不太像是一支這麼會製造對手犯規的球隊會在防守排名第六爛的原因。所以還有兩項額外的因素。 First, by allowing opponents to shoot the ball right at the rim so frequently, they are also much more prone to fouling and subsequent free throw attempts. Sure enough, New Orleans is tied with Miami for the 3rd worst free throw rate allowed to opponents, as they attempt .313 free throws per field goal attempt. The end result of this statistic is easy to see, as the Pelicans allow just over 25 free throw attempts per 48 minutes, 8th worst in the NBA. That’s almost 7 more free throw attempts allowed per game than the division rival Spurs, whose 18.5 free throw attempts allowed per game rank 2nd best in the NBA. Given the league average free throw percentage of right around 75%, that’s about 5 more points per game New Orleans is allowing from the free throw line than San Antonio. Add those 5 points per 48 minutes to the Pelicans’ average scoring margin, and they’d be sitting right in between the Clippers and Rockets at 7th best in the NBA. While that example is certainly a stretch, it gives some perspective in regards to how important it is to both attempt shots at the rim and prevent opponents from doing the same. 首先，因為常常讓對手在籃框附近投籃，所以也就很容易犯規，讓對手罰球。的確，紐奧良和邁阿密一起在讓對手罰球率的排行排名第三爛，每一次出手就會有.313次的罰球機會。結果很顯而易見，鵜鶘每48分鐘會讓對手罰25球，是在聯盟排第八爛的。每場比賽幾乎比馬刺還要多將近7次，他們每場比賽只有讓對手罰18.5次，排名第二好。聯盟的罰球命中率差不多75%，也就是鵜鶘每場比賽在罰球線上比馬刺還要多丟5分。這5分加上去可以讓鵜鶘排名在快艇和火箭之間，在聯盟中排名第七。這也證明了進攻的時候在籃框附近投籃以及避免讓對手在籃框附近投籃是有多重要的事。 The second problem comes via the glass. Even if you’re able to force missed shots, it means relatively little if opponents grab the ensuing rebounds and give themselves extra scoring opportunities. Sure enough, the Pelicans allow an opponents’ offensive rebound rate of 27%, the 6th worst percentage in the league and a ranking which makes them the only team to fall in the league’s bottom 7 in both opponents’ eFG% and opponents’ ORR%. So, to put it simply, the Pelicans are giving up a high percentage of made shots and a lot of extra scoring opportunities after missed shots. Not exactly a recipe for success. 第二個問題就是籃板。就算你能夠讓對手投不進，如果讓對手抓到進攻籃板，那也沒有用。鵜鶘對手的進攻籃板率為27%，排名第六爛，也使得他們是唯一一支球隊在對手的eFG% 以及對手的ORR%都在聯盟的倒數七名內。簡單來說，鵜鶘就是讓對手投太多高命中率的投籃以及太多二次進攻機會。 Conclusion 結論 Plain and simple, the Pelicans need to take back the paint on defense. Given the fact that the team has Anthony Davis, this shouldn’t be as big of a problem as it is, but he ends up outside of the paint far too frequently. If the team won’t commit to playing him at center, then he’s going to end up chasing some players away from the rim or getting tied up in pick and rolls. The result, as Zach Lowe alluded to in his recent Grantland column, is no interior defense left to either protect the rim or come down with defensive rebounds. When Anthony Davis and Ryan Anderson play together, Davis HAS to be played as a true center and last line of defense between the ball and the hoop (see: Hibbert, Roy). Otherwise, this team will continue to get dominated for position inside and give up tons of points down low until it can find a legitimate defensive center who doesn’t commit fouls every 30 seconds and is competent enough on the offensive end to be played regularly. This Pelicans team can’t become the Pacers overnight, but they really should not be as bad on defense as they have been so far. With a greater commitment to protecting the rim, we could start to see some real improvements on the defensive side of the ball. 簡單明瞭，鵜鶘要鞏固禁區防守。球隊有AD照理來說不應該是大問題，但問題就在於他常常在禁區之外。如果球隊不讓他打中鋒，那他就會去追一些外圍的球員，或者在擋拆的時候被綁住。就會變得沒有禁區防守或者抓不下防守籃板。當AD和Ryno一起上場時，AD必須打得像中鋒，要做球和籃框之間最後的屏障。否則這支球隊會持續在禁區被吃死死，直到找到一名堪用的防守中鋒，他不能每30秒就犯規一次，還要在進攻上能夠將球塞進籃框。鵜鶘不會一晚就變成溜馬，但他們真的不應該爛成這個樣子。有一個很好的籃框保護者，就會在防守端上看到進步。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 219.85.121.5

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