[翻譯]Five question: Philadelphia Phillies

看板Phillies作者jerrt (上班都在逛PTT)時間14年前 (2010/04/01 11:29)推噓6(6推 0噓 15→)

留言21則, 5人參與討論串1/1

※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板] 作者: jerrt (上班都在逛PTT) 看板: MLB 標題: [翻譯]Five question: Philadelphia Phillies 時間: Thu Apr 1 11:28:40 2010 1. Was 2009 a fluke season for Cole Hamels? 對於Cole Hamels來說 2009年是否只是單純運氣不佳的一季？ Yes, mostly due to their batting averages on balls in play (BABIP). Pitchers have very little control over their BABIP, so it normally hovers around .300. In 2008, when Cole Hamels was brilliant, his BABIP was .270. Last year, it was .325. An increase of .055 is a lot! 答案是肯定的,原因則是在於他的BABIP. 投手們並無法去掌控自己的BABIP, 所以大部分投手大概都落在3成左右.在2008球季,Cole Hamels的BABIP是2成7, 去年,這個數字則大幅成長到3成25. There were 581 balls put in play against Hamels in '09. If hitters batted .300 instead of .325, they get 174 hits instead of 189. 64.5 percent of the hits Hamels allowed were singles, 21.5 percent were doubles, 2.5 percent were triples, and 11.5 percent were home runs. If we assume the same distribution of hits, then Hamels would have given up nine fewer singles, three fewer doubles, one fewer triple, and two fewer home runs. In other words, opposing hitters' SLG would drop from .440 to .406 and their OBP would drop from .315 to .296. 去年,Hamels總共有581個投球被擊在場內.若他的BABIP為0.3而非0.325, 則他的被安打數會從189降為174. 在Hamels被擊出的安打裡面,有64.5%為一壘安打, 21.5%為二壘安打, 2.5%為三壘安打, 11.5%為全壘打. 假如我們套用這個數據在剛才的假設上, 則Hamels會被少敲出9隻一壘安打,3隻二壘安打,1隻三壘安打和2隻全壘打. 換句話說,去年對手的SLG會從0.44降為0.406, 而OBP會從0.315降為0.296. Overall, Hamels was the same pitcher last year as he was in 2008. His FIP was 3.72 in both years; xFIP only had him 0.06 worse in '09; tRA thought he was .014 better last year. 總體來說,Hamels去年的表現和2008年一樣. FIP都是3.72, xFIP僅小幅的衰退了0.06, 而tRA則是進步了0.014. His strikeouts and walks stayed at the same level. So did his batted ball splits. 他的三振與保送的數據維持平盤. 被擊球的分布也差不多(平飛,高飛,滾地). And, finally, Hamels was actually more consistent with his release points. 事實上,他投球時的放球點甚至越來越穩定. If I was a betting man, I would bet that Hamels has a bounce-back 2010 season. 假如我是雨刷,我賭他在2010球季一定會觸底反彈. 2. Why didn't GM Ruben Amaro keep Cliff Lee? 為什麼GM Ruben Amaro不留住Cliff Lee? Fans salivated at the thought of having Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Hamels in the same starting rotation. Opposing managers cringed at the thought of facing all three consecutively in the playoffs. Yes, it would have been nice to have all three wearing a Phillies uniform in 2010. 曾經,費城的球迷對有著Doc, 小李飛刀和黑魔使的先發輪值留口水. 他隊GM則對於需要在季後賽面對連續三名強投的想法感到不安. 當然,若上述三位投手在2010球季都能穿上Phillies的球衣的確是美事一件. Jimmy Rollins: Drafted in the 2nd round in 1996 Jimmy Rollins: 1996年第2輪 Ryan Madson: Drafted in the 9th round in 1998 Ryan Madson: 1998年第9輪 Chase Utley: Drafted 15th overall in 2000 Chase Utley: 2000年第15順位 Ryan Howard: Drafted in the 5th round in 2001 猴兒: 2001年第5輪 Cole Hamels: Drafted 17th overall in 2002 黑魔使: 2002年第17順位 J.A. Happ: Drafted in the 3rd round in 2004 黑皮: 2004年第3輪 The Phillies organization has drafted remarkably well and built around a core of home-grown players. Partially resulting from the Cliff Lee trade last year, and partially due to having lower draft picks due to their recent success, the Phillies' minor league system has fallen into the bottom-third of the league according to most rankings. Emptying what's left in the farm for one year of Lee would have been devastating to the Phillies beyond 2012. 在過去幾年,費城人在選秀方面取的驚人的成功並以這些球員為核心打造了一支具有競爭力的隊伍. 但在近年出色的戰績以及小李飛刀的交易案背後, 費成人的農場已經在最近的排名落到全聯盟倒數第三. 為了多留小李飛刀一年而將農場一掃而空的作法將會對2012年後的費城人具有破壞性的影響. Essentially swapping Lee for Halladay allowed the Phillies to keep some prospects that will be able to fill in as the current group of Phillies dwindles while also signing one of the best pitchers in baseball to a multi-year contract extension. 基本上將小李飛刀換成Doc對於費城來說不僅可以保住為數不多的農場新秀, 以使的球隊的未來不致於大受影響,更可以用複數年合約綁住目前大聯盟中最好的投手. Phillies fans will curse Amaro if the Phillies fail to win the World Series in 2010, but they will be thanking him by 2013. His job is not just to put a competitive team on the field this year, but to ensure that he will be able to do the same in '11, and '12, and '13, and so on. 假如費城人再度於2010的WS中鍛羽而歸,費城球迷的砲口將會指向GM Amaro(編案：我也是!!) 但到了2013年,這些球迷將會感謝Amaro當初的決定. 因為他的工作不僅僅只是在2010年打造一支具有競爭力的球隊, 他也要能夠確保費城人在2011, 12, 13甚至未來都能夠複製一模一樣的成績. 3.How good has the running game been, and will it continue to improve? 費城人已經很快了,而他們能夠更快嘛？ With first base coach Davey Lopes, the Phillies' base runners have been historically great. In 2007, Lopes' first year on the job, the Phillies stole bases at an 88 percent success rate, setting an all-time Major League record. In '08 and '09, their success rates were 84 percent and 81 percent, respectively. From 2007-09, the Phillies were the most efficient baseball team in terms of stealing bases. 在一壘指導教練Davey Lopes的帶領下, 費城人的球員在跑壘方面有著顯著的好成績. 在2007年, 也就是Lopes走馬上任的第一年, 費城人的盜壘成功率是至今仍為大聯盟記錄的88%. 而在2008及2009年,他們的盜壘成功率分別為84%和81%. 從2007年到2009年, 費城是全大聯盟盜壘最有效率的隊伍. The team has also become more aggressive under Lopes. In the three years prior to his hiring, 2004-06, the Phillies were just in the top half to top one-third in the majors in terms of base-stealing aggressiveness(attempts to steal). With Lopes, from '07-09, the Phillies have been in the top one-fourth to one-sixth. 這隻球隊在Lopes的指導下越來越有侵略性. 在他之前(2004-06), 費城在嘗試盜壘的數據上頂多只能排到全聯盟的前半或是前三分之一. 而從07年開始一直到今天,費城已經在這項數據上排到全聯盟的前四分之一. While it is obvious that Lopes has made his runners attempt to steal second more often, he has also done the same at third base. Phillies runners have become more aggressive trying to steal third base. Lopes不僅僅只是讓他的球員們多嘗試盜二壘而已. 在他的要求下,現在費城的球員更義無反顧的往三壘衝. It isn't just blind aggression, either. From 2007-09, the Phillies successfully stole third base 85 percent, 89 percent, and 72 percent respectively, well above the 75 percent break-even point in two out of the three years. 但盜三壘對於他們來說卻不是個盲目的行為. 從2007到09, 費城人盜三壘的成功率分別為85%, 89%和72%. (下面這句小弟不才實在翻不出來..) In 2010, the same group of runners -- Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley, and Jayson Werth -- will be back and they have replaced a poor base runner in Pedro Feliz with a good base runner in Placido Polanco. Expect them to once again be the best in the game at swiping bags with efficiency. 在2010年, 原班人馬將會捲土重來,這次,除了Jimmy Rollins, 飛翔的夏威夷人,忍者阿特力以及Edge之外, 原本跑壘能力不算甚佳的Pedro Feliz也換成了Polanco. 球迷們可以期待他們在速度方面仍然可以有全聯盟的最佳表現. 4.Will the Phillies be able to keep Jayson Werth away from free agency? 費城人會不會留下Jayson Werth? A lot depends on what happens with Carl Crawford, as he is the only other soon-to-be free agent outfielder in Werth's stratosphere. The four-year, $66 million contract Jason Bay received from the New York Mets will also help determine how much Werth will make in free agency. 關於這個問題有很大的部份取決於Carl Crawford的動向, 他是目前唯一一個與Werth同等級且即將成為自由球員的外野手. 而Jason Bay在今年與梅子簽下4年66M的合約也會成為Werth在自由球員市場價格的指標. According to FanGraphs, Crawford has been worth 11.3 WAR over the past three seasons. Bay is tallied at 6.4 WAR over the same period of time, while Werth comes in at 13.6. It stands to reason that Werth could ask for more than Bay got from the Mets. 根據FanGraphs的統計,在過去三年,Crawford的WAR是11.3. 同時期貝爺的WAR是6.4. 而Werth的WAR為13.6. 因此,我們可以合理的推測Werth會要求一只比Bay更肥的合約. As for the Phillies' ability to retain him, it seems unlikely. The team already has nearly $133 million committed to 17 players in 2011 with the arbitration cases of Kyle Kendrick, Ben Francisco, and Greg Dobbs (who likely will not receive an offer) to handle. The Phillies front office imposed a $140 million payroll cap this season and it is unlikely that the Phillies will raise it up to the $160-170 million range that would be necessary to afford Werth. 光就這點而言,費城似乎沒有能力留下Werth. 光是在2011年,球隊就必須花將近133M在陣中17位球員的身上, 其中還包含Kyle Kendrick, Ben Francisco 以及Greg Dobbs(雖然費城不太可能會給他offer)的arbitration. 費城高層暗示今年球隊的預算將會落在140M附近而不太可能會為了要留下Werth而將預算提高到160-170M. If Werth truly wants to continue his career in Philadelphia, he could agree to backload his contract. For instance, a three-year deal worth $50 million could pay him $12 million in the first year and $19 million in the final two years. 假如Werth想要繼續待在費城, 他也許會同意球隊延遲付款. 舉例來說,簽下一紙三年50M的合約, 第1年Werth可以拿到12M,而在第2,第3年他各可以領到19M. I have suggested (here and here) that the Phillies should trade Ryan Howard in an effort to clear payroll, which would give them the ability to re-sign Werth. However, this is unlikely to occur given Howard's star power, his popularity in Philadelphia, and a rather small market for expensive, power-hitting, one-dimensional first basemen. 我曾經建議過費城人應該要想辦法把猴兒給交易出去以清出薪資空間, 如此一來,他們將有能力可以留下Werth(編按:...別鬧了..Orz) 但是,考量猴兒的吸票能力,在費城當地受歡迎的程度以及相對來說更昂貴的強力一壘手市場,這個提議不太可能會被採納. 5.Did the Phillies upgrade at third base by signing Placido Polanco? 簽下Polanco = 三壘升級 ? Comparing Polanco to Pedro Feliz, the answer is simple: yes. Feliz compiled 2.7 WAR in 2008 and '09 in Philadelphia, while Polanco accrued 6.1 WAR in the same period of time. 單純就Polanco與Feliz做比較,答案很明顯的是肯定的. 在2008與09年, Feliz的WAR是2.7, 同時期Polanco的WAR為6.1. However, there is concern because Polanco will be playing at third base, a position he hasn't played regularly since 2002 and hasn't played at all since '05. At second base, he was one of the best defensive players in baseball. Chase Utley was the only second baseman to outrank Polanco in UZR/150 last year, 11.3 to 11.0. 儘管如此,仍有人擔心Polanco在新的球季中將要擔任三壘的守備任務. 從02年開始他便不是個專職的三壘手. 甚至從05年後他便在也沒有守過這個位置. 他曾是聯盟最佳的二壘防守球員之一. 在去年,Polanco在UZR/150的數據上只輸給了一個人:忍者阿特力, 11.3對11.0. (Polanco表示: ......) Polanco has been working with the Phillies coaching staff and logging significant innings during spring training in an effort to re-learn the position. However, if he simply provides league-average offense and defense at third base, he will have earned his $5.2 million salary, part of the below-market, three-year $18 million contract the Phillies awarded him in December. Polanco在春訓期間與教練配合努力的重新學習如何守備三壘. 但只要能夠在三壘提供聯盟平均等級的攻擊與守備能力, 他就算對得起在去年12月與費城簽下的這紙3年18M的合約了. (這個部分小弟不太會翻,還有請版上前輩指教) While it is certainly true that Amaro could have slightly loosened his grip on his wallet and signed Chone Figgins, he felt that Polanco was a perfect fit in the lineup in the No. 2 spot behind Jimmy Rollins. Polanco rarely walks just as he rarely strikes out, but Charlie Manuel likes his propensity for contact combined with Rollins' speed. Most sabermetrics-using Phillies fans prefer Shane Victorino to lead off rather than Rollins, but that is neither here nor there. 儘管Amaro有能力在提高一點點預算的情況下簽下Chone Figgins, 他覺得Polanco會是個絕佳的第二棒人選. 就像他不常被三振一般,Polanco也不常等到四壞球, 但Charlie Manual喜歡Polanco的contact能力加上Rollins的速度的這個構想. 大部份了解棒球統計的球迷都喜歡以飛翔的夏威夷人更勝於用Rollins擔任開路先鋒, 不過這不太可能會成真. BONUS: Should Victorino lead-off instead of Rollins? 順道一提：是不是該讓Victorino取代Rollins打第一棒？ We'll simply use the lineup analysis tool from Baseball Musings. I plugged in the PECOTA projections for each of the Phillies, first using the lineup that will be used in 2010 and then using the one most of us stat-nerd Phillies fans want. Note: for pitchers, I simply used last year's aggregate OBP/SLG by Phillies pitchers. 數據會說話,以下便是用Lineup analysis tool算出來的成績比較. 2010 Phillies開季先發名單: Rollins-Polanco-Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez-Victorino-Ruiz-Pitcher 每場平均得分數: 4.940 全年(162場)得分數: 800.3 2010 Phillies建議先發名單: Victorino-Polanco-Utley-Howard-Werth-Ibanez-Victorino-Ruiz-Pitcher 每場平均得分數: 4.971 全年(162場)得分數: 805.3 2010 Phillies最佳先發名單: Utley-Werth-Polanco-Howard-Victorino-Rollins-Ibanez-Pitcher-Ruiz 每場平均得分數: 5.185 全年(162場)得分數: 840 The difference between the two lineups is about five runs over a 162-game season, or roughly about half a win. The difference between the optimal lineup is 35-40 runs, or roughly 3.5-4 wins. Of course, the "optimal lineup" will never be used by anyone other than Tony LaRussa, and only if he's found his flask. 開季先發與建議先發之間的差距大約是半場左右的勝場數. 而開季先發與最佳先發間的差距則來到了3.5-4場. 當然,沒有總教練會採用最佳先發名單,除了喝醉的Tony LaRussa以外. P.S. 小弟初次嘗試翻譯,若有疏漏還煩請版上前輩包含~~ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 12.229.87.62 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 12.229.87.62

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