[情報] What to Make of Steven Pearce
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Saturday, 10 May 2008
By Alex Eisenberg
Steven Pearce started his professional career much later than most top
prospects. He was drafted out of college at age 22 and was moved slowly up the
Pirates organizational ladder. At each level, Pearce has put up excellent
numbers and finally in 2007, after dominating three levels of competition,
Pearce was promoted to the big league level.
Pearce has shown the ability to hit for a moderate average with plus power to
left field. While he never has had great plate discipline, he did make strides
in cutting down his strikeouts without any noticeable loss of power and was
even a semi-high contact hitter last year.
He has shown no true split against righties or lefties and in an attempt to
improve Pearce's versatility, the Pirates moved Pearce from first base to a
corner outfield spot this past year.
However, the numbers aren't really the issue with Pearce as he only has a few
negatives to point out, one of which is his average plate discipline. The two
biggest issues for Pearce are his age (he turned 25 on April 13th) and the fact
he plays a position where his bat will have to produce.
Pearce is also a pull hitter to the extreme and he hasn't displayed the ability
to go other way and hit for average or power. Below is a quote from a scout
Baseball America talked to at last year's Future's Game:
"Several scouts addressed concerns about Pearce’s ability to handle quality
breaking balls at the upper levels of the minors on his path to Pittsburgh.
“I think he's got to make a little bit of an adjustment with his approach,” a
scout from a National League club said. “He’s a straight pull guy who swings
at everything as hard as he can."
“That's not going to play at the upper levels, no way. He's a pull guy that
wants to go out there and get it. If he can get out there and use the other
side of the field a little more they might have something. If he can't, then
he'll get eaten alive.”
First, lets take a look Pearce's batted ball data from AA and AAA of last year.
These two graphics are from firstinning.com:
We can see just how extreme a pull hitter Pearce was last year by looking at
the charts above. Only two of his 19 homeruns last year came from anywhere
other than left field and he had exactly zero opposite field homeruns.
Then we have an interesting analysis from Sandlot Swashbucklers of the Most
Valuable Network.
"What I’m worried about, though, is how Pearce’s power will eventually
translate to PNC Park’s expansive left field."
Now lets put up the graphic that shows PNC Park's dimensions from MLB.com:
We can see the dimensions are not favorable to Pearce, if you click the link
above and look at his batted ball data, he does have two doubles he hit to the
opposite field. So there is hope after all.
Future Role
Thus far in 2008, Pearce has struggled. His numbers are down across the board
and this may be due to him pressing to get back up to the big league level.
However, without taking into consideration this year’s numbers, there is still
some question about just how good Pearce’s bat is and the fact he plays a
position where his bat will have to carry him, it is hard to see Pearce’s
upside as anything more than an average regular.
Grade:
7 Upside, Low-Average Probability
5 Downside, Low-Average Probability
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