New Pirates: Scouting Tabata, Ohlendorf, McCuthen, Karstens

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http://tinyurl.com/5ovwhd Tuesday, July 29, 2008 | By Alex Eisenberg After looking over what impact the recent Pirate/Yankee deal will have on New York, now we take a look at what this deal looks like on the Pittsburgh end of things. Who are the players they received from the Yankees and what does this say about Pittsburgh's direction as a franchise? To read the first article, which covers the Yankee side of the deal, please click here. Jose Tabata | OF | Age - 20 In terms of physical tools and raw talent, Tabata is amongst the best in minor league baseball. However, Tabata has yet to turn that talent into production. By the Numbers Tabata has seen decreased production over each of the last three years, but this year Tabata has struggled immensely, posting a .629 OPS with an .062 ISO power and a .248 batting average. The interesting thing is that his walk and strikeout ratios remain similar. The 7.8 BB% is just .2% worse than his 2007 BB% and his 14.8 K% is actually .4% better than his 2007 K%. Tabata's numbers this year indicate a problem with hitting the ball for authority. The high GB%, the low BABIP, the low ISO-power, the low LD%, and even the lower K%--all correlate with hitting the ball with less authority. The Swing Jose-Tabata Jose Tabata on 5/3/08 Jose-Tabata-Hands *Credit to Mike Ashmore's Thunder Thoughts Tabata is blessed with quick wrists to generate plenty of bat speed. He loads his hands well and keeps his swing short in the process. I'm not sure I like the way he carries his weight forward...I don't think he is generating as much momentum as he could, which would be something that stymies his power production. In fact, the more I look at the above clip, the more I don't like how he carries his weight forward and plants...something looks off to me; for instance , he "gets tall" on his back leg, something that could make his weight transfer less efficienct, but I can't make any conclusions because 1.) too many frames are missing and 2.) this could be a result of this one particular swing. By most accounts, Tabata has excellent hand-eye coordination and is able to center the ball well, leading to contact that is usually of the hard variety. But what we've seen this year ishe hasn't been making hard contact. Off the Field Issues Tabata has been labeled as a player with make-up issues and the problems have been exacerbated this year with a couple of incidents that did The first incident happened in late April when Tabata, frustrated after a striking out and feeling the burden of a poor start to the season on his shoulders, left the team in the middle of the game. He was suspended three games for the incident. However, just a month later, Tabata found himself again being disciplined by the Yankee organization, this time for unspecified reasons . Before the year started, some were already questioning Tabata's commitment to baseball, calling him lazy and lacking the focus necessary to reach his level of his potential. This was fueled by the fact he reported to camp in 2007 overweight and out of shape. In addition to questions about attitude and make-up, Tabata has been plagued by injuries. He battled through a wrist/hand injury in 2006 and suffered what was labeled a severe hamstring injury earlier this month and the question of whether he'll play again this year is still up in the air. Future Impact While Tabata is a clear top-level talent, there is no question his star as a prospect has dimmed. A change of scenery might be just what he needs to turn things around. Prospect Grade 8.5 Upside, Very Low Probability 5.5 Mid-Level, Low-Average Probability 4 Downside, Low Probability Ross Ohlendorf | RHP | Age - 26 Ohlendorf is the best of the three arms Pittsburgh received in this trade. He has struggled at the major league level this year, but he has major league quality stuff. Fastball - ranges anywhere from 91 - 96 with good movement. He is very affective when he is down in the zone, but when Ohlendorf leaves the pitch up in the zone, he gets hammered as it straightens out. Grade - 55 Now, 60 Future Slider - late breaking pitch that comes in between 80 - 84. He throws it with intent (see how the head is jerked forward slightly?) and it comes in on a similar plane as his fastball, so each pitch is played up because of this similarity. Grade - 60 Now, 60 Future However, he doesn't throw the pitch for strikes and he relies almost exclusively on his fastball when he falls behind in the count, allowing hitters to sit on the pitch. Mechanics Ohlendorf pitches exclusively from the stretch. He has a short leg kick, but generates his power by using a step-over move that kick-starts an aggressive hip rotation. I slow down the key sequence in the graphics above. It's essentially a way for Ohlendorf to add extra momentum heading into foot plant. I mentioned how his head jerks forward at release. This is the intent to throw hard or the intent to deceive the hitter into thinking you're throwing hard. That is one of the reasons why his slider is such an effective pitch. However, often times when a pitcher jerks their head a certain way, it has a negative effect on their control and Ohlendorf does at times suffer from inconsistent command. Future Impact Ohlendorf is better than his numbers in New York indicate. I think he profiles best as a solid middle reliever type. I don't think he's a top set-up guy, but in that 6th and 7th inning, he'll give the Pirates a quality reliever that is under control for a number of years. Prospect Grade 6.5 Upside, Average-High Probability 4.5 Downside, Low-Average Probability Daniel McCutchen | RHP | Age - 25 McCutchen is an interesting piece in this deal because he has quietly put up quality numbers in the minors though he has always been old for his league. His stuff received an uptick in its quality in the past year, which makes him an intriguing guy to watch going forward. Fastball - consistently sits at 90 or 91, but can reach 93. It has decent movement, but it plays up because McCutchen is able to command the pitch very well and keep it down in the zone. Has a somewhat sneaky quality to it. Grade - 50 Now, 50 Future Curveball - viewed by some as a plus pitch, I don't really see it that way. His curveball has pretty good bite and profiles more as an above average pitch. It's not a knee-buckler, but it's good enough to generate swings-and-misses. Like the fastball, he commands the pitch very well. Grade - 55 Now, 55/60 Future McCutchen also throws a change-up with a splitter type action. Mechanics McCutchen does have a smooth delivery--no pauses in the wind-up or hitch-like arm action. He comes to a compact, athletic position, which helps in the ability to repeat one's delivery. In addition, McCutchen firms his glove up to prevent his front shoulder from flying open. This helps in terms of one's control, while also having a more consistent release point. McCutchen is also lessening the pounding his shoulder takes from pitching. Notice that he also keeps the glove out in front of his chest, bringing his chest to the glove instead of tucking it into his side. The benefits? He achieves better extension, allowing himself to release the pitch just a little a closer to home plate. He is also allowing his arm more room to decelerate after release. Future Impact In a perfect world, McCutchen becomes a quality No. 4 starter for years to come. Ultimately, he'll probably settle in as something a little less--perhaps as a solid No. 5 starter or as a quality reliever out of the bullpen. Prospect Grade 6.5 Upside, Low-Average Probability 4 Downside, Low-Average Probability Jeff Karstens | RHP | Age - 26 Karstens is a "pitchability" right hander. He has a wide array of pitches, plus control, and a good "feel" for pitching. What he doesn't have is any plus pitch. His fastball and slider are fringy, his curveball is a floater and an easy pitch to launch for good hitters, and his change-up profiles as his best pitch, rating as above average. Karstens has always put up respectable numbers, but hardly dominant numbers, but was hammered at the major league level when given the opportunity. What Karstens gives the Pirates is some extra pitching depth--a potential long man out of the bullpen or a spot starter if an injury should occur. Not an exciting player but not a bad fourth piece as part of a trade. A New Direction in Pittsburgh This trade, as well as the drafting of Pedro Alvarez, is really the first sign that Pittsburgh is committed to a rebuilding effort. I'm not in love with the package the Pirates received, but if Tabata realizes his potential, the Pirates easily come out as winners...I just have serious doubts Tabata reaches that potential. Nevertheless, the Pirates get a great young talent to put in their minor league system plus three usable arms for the next few years. A few more trades like this and the Pirates will have stockpiled a bevy of young and cheap talent, and for the first time in years, have a clear direction for the future of their franchise. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3