Top 20 Prospects: Pittsburgh Pirates
Summary:
With a solid draft class (highlighted by first-rounder Pedro Alvarez) and the
trading of Jason Bay, Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady during the 2008 season,
Pittsburgh took another step in the slow process of rebuilding a thin farm
system. Heading into 2009, Pittsburgh will look for some high-ceiling arms
(Daniel Moskos and Brad Lincoln) to bounce back from pitchability and injury
issues, respectively, Both Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen look near-ready
to make the final jump to the Majors, and uber-draftee Pedro Alvarez
shouldn't be far behind. While the system is still thin, particularly in
impact starting pitching, there is some depth developing. Pirates fans
undoubtedly hope that the inking of Alvarez is an indication of future
commitment to the draft and not simply a one-off deal. While the system is
still a ways away from "impact", for the first time in a while the Pirates
are headed in the right direction.
===============================================================================
1. Pedro Alvarez | Stats - N/A | Depot Grade: A-
6-2 / 215 | Age - 21 | 3B | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2008 (R1) | Vanderbilt
University
Floor: AVG 1B | Ceiling: All-star 3B | Projection: All-star 3B
Notes: After an eventful August and September, Alvarez finds himself securely
in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization and immediately becomes the top
prospect in the system. Alvarez has the makings of middle-of-the-order bat,
capable of hitting for average and for power. He already has a professional
approach at the plate, as well as the drive to continually tweak and improve
his swing. After suffering a broken hamate bone last season, Alvarez
struggled to get his timing and swing back, and never truly returned to top
form. After struggling in the first two games of the SEC Tournament, rather
than returning to the hotel with the team, Pedro headed out to a batting cage
in Hoover for a 2-hour BP session with some local high school players. He has
everything you’d look for in finding a player upon whom to build a team. He
leads in words and in action, and has the talent to be one of the better
players in the game. There were some concerns with his conditioning entering
instructionals this fall, but we are not concerned. He should quickly
establish himself this Spring, and has the athleticism, arm strength and
baseball acumen to eventually hold down any corner position (3B/LF/RF/1B).
For a more detailed look at Alvarez, please see our 2008 Draft Preview
article "Finding 1:4 (Pedro Alvarez)".
2. Andrew McCutchen | Stats | Depot Grade: B+
5-11 / 175 | Age - 21 | OF | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2005 (R1) | Fort Meade HS
(FL)
Floor: AVG LF | Ceiling: All-Star CF | Projection: Above-AVG CF
Notes: Rated by most as the top prospect in the Pirates’s system in each of
the last two seasons, McCutchen held his own this season as a twenty-one year
old in AAA. Offensively, McCutchen’s strength is his quick, plus-hands that
keep a short path to the ball and excel at squaring-up. His power hasn’t yet
fully emerged, but he could end-up a 20 HR bat in the future. On the
basepaths, he’s a plus-runner, though he needs to work on his reads and
jumps as he was thrown out in thirty-six percent of his fifty-three stolen
base attempts. He also has a long, heavy follow-through on his swing which
prevents him from getting out of the box quickly. Defensively, McCutchen
moves well in the outfield. His reads are solid and he tracks well. His arm
is more than adequate for center. He will likely start 2009 back in AAA but
could be up for good at some point next year.
3. Jarek Cunningham | Stats | Depot Grade: B
6-1 / 185 | Age - 18 | 3B/SS | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R18) | Mt. Spokane
HS (WA)
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Above-AVG SS | Projection: AVG SS
Notes: Cunningham missed most of his senior year at Mt. Spokane with a knee
injury. While not quite back to where he was pre-injury, Cunningham has the
hands and the range to give him a good shot at staying at shortstop.
Offensively, he has a solid approach for a high school draftee, and has the
potential to hit for average at the higher levels. His power doesn’t project
much better than average, which could be an issue if he slides over the third
base. After a great first professional showing in the Gulf Coast League,
Cunningham could get a shot at full-season ball in 2009.
4. Neil Walker | Stats | Depot Grade: B
6-3 / 218 | Age - 22 | 3B | B/T - B/R | Drafted - 2004 (R1) | Gibsonia HS (PA)
Floor: Below-AVG CI | Ceiling: Above-AVG 3B | Projection: AVG 3B
Notes: Walker continues to improve his approach at the plate, but still
struckout too much at AAA in 2008. His best tool is his power, which
grades-out as above-average. Defensively, he has the hands and range to stay
at third-base. His plus-arm plays well at third. With Alvarez likely to move
quickly, and LaRoche now in the mix at the Major League level, Pittsburgh
will have to decide who ends up at third, long term.
5. Jose Tabata | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
5-11 / 160 | Age - 20 | OF | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2005 | Venezuela
Floor: 5th OF | Ceiling: Above-AVG CF | Projection: AVG CF
Notes: After struggling mightily throughout the first two-thirds of the 2008
season, Tabata turned everything around after being traded to Pittsburgh as
part of the Xavier Nady deal, batting one-hundred points higher and OPSing
.964 (compared to .630 at Trenton). Tabata has a solid approach at the plate
and is beginning to tap into his above-average power potential. A solid
toolset, he profiles well defensively in centerfield, though he needs to
improve his reads and routes.
6. Jordy Mercer | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-3 / 200 | Age - 22 | SS | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R3) | Oklahoma State
University
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Above-AVG SS | Projection: AVG SS
Notes: As discussed in our draft preview, Mercer doesn’t have the upside of
either of the Beckhams, but may be the safest bet of the two to both hit and
stick at shortstop at the Major League level. A little over-sized for short,
Mercer makes due with great reads and clean movements. His hands are
above-average and he sets himself up well with solid footwork. Offensively,
Mercer has a solid grasp of the strikezone, helping him to get into hitters
counts. He squares-up on pitches regularly and does an adequate job of using
the whole field. He could hit for average and gap-to-gap power while
providing solid-average defense as early as 2011.
7. Robbie Grossman | Stats | Depot Grade: B-
6-1 / 200 | Age - 19 | OF | B/T - B/L | Drafted - 2008 (R6) |
Cypress-Fairbanks HS (TX)
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Above-AVG CF | Projection: AVG LF
Notes: Grossman shows good power-potential from both sides of the plate, but
his approach was lacking throughout his senior year at Cypress-Fairbanks. He
tracks the ball well in the outfield and has the range to hold down
centerfield. His arm, however, is fringy and below-average with regards to
accuracy. If he isn’t able to stick in center, Grossman will be under more
pressure to reach his offensive ceiling in order to provide adequate value
out of left. The tools are there for Grossman to grow into a talented
defender and solid offensive producer.
8. Quinton Miller | Stats - N/A | Depot Grade: B-
6-1 / 185 | Age - 19 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R20) | Shawnee HS
(NJ)
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: Late-inning Relief
Notes: Miller sits in the low-90s with a flat fastball that he throws with
average command. His best pitch is probably his slider – a fringe-plus
offering that he can consistently throw for strikes. His changeup is a
fringe-average pitch with solid depth and he does a reasonable job of
maintaining his arm speed. He has the upside of a mid-rotation starter, but
his slightish build and lack of a dominant fastball could ultimately lead him
to the pen where his arsenal could play-up.
9. Wes Freeman | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-4 / 210 | Age - 18 | OF | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R16) | All Saints
Academy (FL)
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Above-AVG CF | Projection: AVG CF
Notes: Freeman is still raw offensively but carries good projection in his
bat. His swing is a bit hitchy at times, and he loads with a stiff front arm
leading to holes that could be exploited at the higher levels. Still, his
large frame makes for plus raw power, and he tends to get good loft when
squaring-up. Defensively, Freeman is above-average in center with solid reads
and good tracking. His speed and arm both project to center at the Major
League level.
10. Chase D’Arnaud | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-1 / 175 | Age - 21 | SS | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2008 (R4) | Pepperdine
University
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG SS | Projection: AVG 3B
Notes: D’Arnaud is a capable defender at shortstop with average hands, but
his range and footwork probably project better at third. His arm is adequate
for either position on the left side and he does a solid job setting himself
up with his lower half. Offensively, D’Arnaud’s bat is a little light for
third, making him a bit of a tweener. It’s not clear whether he provides
more future value as a shortstop with fringy range and a fringe-average arm,
or as a third-baseman with a fringy bat. With a bounty of bats at third
already, Pittsburgh will likely keep him at short for as long as they can. He
should get a shot at LoA Hickory in 2009.
11. Shelby Ford | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-3 / 175 | Age - 24 | 2B | B/T - B/R | Drafted - 2006 (R3) | Oklahoma State
University
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Above-AVG 2B | Projection: UTL
Notes: Ford’s greatest value may be his versatility. He has the range and
footwork to hold down both middle-infield positions, though he could improve
upon his pivots. His arm plays at third, as well. Offensively, Ford is still
working to refine his strikezone command, but his approach is solid from both
sides of the plate. As a switch-hitter capable of playing all infield
positions, Ford should provide some value at the Major League level,
eventually, even if he doesn't reach his ceiling.
12. Bryan Morris | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-3 / 178 | Age - 21 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2006 (R1) | Motlow State
CC (TN)
Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: #4 Starter
Notes: Morris continues to make strides after Tommy John surgery. His
fastball is back up to the low-90s, occasionally touching the mid-90s. He'll
continue to work on commanding his secondary offerings, highlighted by a
plus-downer curveball with good, hard, late bite. His changeup is
inconsistent but he shows an aptitude for it, and his slider is a capable but
unimpressive fourth offering. If he can command his offerings, his ceiling is
that of a mid-rotation arm. If he cannot maintain his velocity and secondary
stuff through the mid- to late-innings, he could be a valuable arm out of the
pen.
13. Jimmy Barthmaier | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-5 / 230 | Age - 24 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2003 (R13) | Roswell HS
(GA)
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: #4 Starter
Notes: Barthmaier relies primarily on a sinker that sits in the upper-80s to
low-90s. He mixes in a straighter low- to mid-90s fastball as well as an
improving changeup and an average curveball with some depth. His command is
fringy, and ultimately his stuff might play better in the pen where he’d
profile as a groundball specialist. In order to project at the Major League
level, Barthmaier will need to cut down on walks issued – to stay a starter
he’ll need a lot more consistency in his secondary offerings.
14. Daniel Moskos | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-1 / 210 | Age - 22 | LHP | B/T - R/L | Drafted - 2007 (R1) | Clemson
University
Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: Late-inning
Relief
Notes: The former first-rounder continued to struggle with consistently
commanding his wipeout slider, a plus-offering (when on) that sits in the
mid-80s. His fastball velocity was up from the end of 2007, but still not as
consistent as its pre-draft mid-90s pop. He still struggles with shaping his
curveball though he shows average spin. His changeup is inconsistent, as
well. His stuff could play very well in the pen, particularly if he can reign
in his slider. His changeup and curveball will need to improve to at least
average offerings for him to approach his ceiling as a starter. It looks like
Pittsburgh will continue to work him out of the rotation, in which case 2009
will be an important year. Moskos may not be as far away from turning the
corner as his stats would indicate, but he’ll need to refine his approach
and improve upon his consistency across the board.
15. Daniel McCutchen | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-2 / 195 | Age - 26 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2006 (R13) | University of
Oklahoma
Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: #4 Starter
Notes: McCutchen comes with two fastballs – a low-90s 2-seamer with some
arm-side run, and a straighter 4-seamer that clocks in a couple
miles-per-hour faster. His curve is a solid downer with good late depth and
his changeup has some fade. His secondary stuff is still inconsistent, but he
shows good feel for both. The former Oklahoma Sooner has the mentality and
swagger commonly found in the back-end of a bullpen, but he’ll likely remain
a starter as long as he shows he can handle it, given the thin upper-levels
of the Pittsburgh system.
16. Austin McClune | Stats | Depot Grade: C+
6-2/ 180 | Age - 21 | OF | B/T - R/R | Drafted - 2006 (R7) | Edmond HS (OK)
Floor: 5th OF | Ceiling: Above-AVG RF | Projection: 4th OF
Notes: McClune will advance as quickly as his bat carries him, as he’s
already a well above-average defender in rightfield. His speed is good enough
to play in centerfield, though his arm plays best in right. With a solid
frame and room to add strength, McClune’s bat still holds a lot of
projection. As of today, he’s still quite raw and will need to drastically
improve his approach, pitch-ID and strikezone command. There is potential for
slightly above-average power, though it still seems unlikely he’ll hit for a
high average. The breakout potential is great, provided Pittsburgh is able to
develop McClune’s unrefined talents.
17. Brad Lincoln | Stats | Depot Grade: C
6-0 / 215 | Age - 23 | RHP | B/T - L/R | Drafted - 2006 (R1) | University of
Houston
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Front-end Starter | Projection: #4 Starter
Notes: As Lincoln continues to work back from Tommy John surgery, the Pirates
will likely remain cautious in their handling of their former first-rounder.
For Pirates fans, there is reason for optimism. Both Lincoln’s stuff and
pitchability pre-surgery give him a solid chance to provide value down the
line, even if the odds of him hitting his ceiling are decreased. His fastball
generally sits in the low- to mid-90s (though he is still regaining his
velocity). Pre-surgery he could dial it up to the upper-90s. His curveball
serves as a quality secondary offering in addition to a change-of-pace pitch,
sitting in the low-80s. His changeup gives him a third potential
above-average pitch, sitting in the upper-70s to low-80s and thrown with
solid arm speed and good fade. He has a good approach on the mound and shows
advanced pitchability with each of his offerings. Even if his stuff doesn't
fully return, his feel and approach give him a good shot at making a Major
League rotation.
18. Brian Bixler | Stats | Depot Grade: C
6-1 / 195 | Age - 26 | 2B/SS | B/T - R/R | Drafter - 2004 (R2) | Eastern
Michigan University
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: AVG SS | Projection: UTL
Notes: Bixler straddles the line between projecting at shortstop and second
base. His hands and footwork play well at either position, and he is solid on
both ends of the double-play. His range and his arm are fringy but adequate
for short. Offensively, Bixler profiles as an average hitter with
fringe-average power for a middle-infielder. Like many prospects, he could
stand to improve his strikezone command, but his solid hand-eye coordination
allows him to consistently square-up. He is a fair basestealer with good
speed and solid instincts.
19. Justin Wilson | Stats | Depot Grade: C
6-2 / 210 | Age - 21 | LHP | B/T - B/L | Drafted - 2008 (R5) | Fresno State
University
Floor: AAAA | Ceiling: Mid-rotation Starter | Projection: #4 Starter
Notes: Wilson’s fastball is a low-90s offering with plus-life. His slider is
a solid, tight offering with late bite that serves as a decent change-of-pace
pitch. It isn’t much more than average, but unlike his curveball he can
generally get it over the plate. His command is fringy across the board. The
next step is to work on commanding his fastball to both sides of the plate,
and improve upon his secondary stuff. If he shows improvement in these areas,
he could move quickly.
20. Romulo Sanchez | Stats | Depot Grade: C
6-5 / 245 | Age - 24 | RHP | B/T - R/R | Signed - 2005 | Venezuela
Floor: Bullpen | Ceiling: Closer | Projection: Middle-relief
Notes: Sanchez is a big-bodied righty with a plus-fastball sitting in the
low- to mid-90s with life. His curveball showed much more consistent spin in
2008, though he hasn’t progressed much with his changeup. If he can continue
to shape his curveball, he could top out as a legit late-inning arm.
===============================================================================
10 More Prospects to Watch
Evan Meek
Matt Hague
Marcus Davis
Olivo Astacio
Josh Sharpless
Quincy Latimore
Jamie Romak
Pat Bresnehan
Tony Watson
Benji Gonzalez
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.112.5.3
→
12/29 20:37, , 1F
12/29 20:37, 1F
Pirates 近期熱門文章
PTT體育區 即時熱門文章
10
12
169
212