[情報] Fangraphs Top 15 Prospects
The organization has some true star power at the top of its minor league
depth chart but things begin to peter out after the Top 3 prospects and the
cupboard is rather bare by the end of the Top 15. The downside to the system
is that the majority of the high-ceiling talent is currently in A-ball or
lower so it will be a little while before the fan base begins to reap the
benefits of the organization’s renewed emphasis on in-house development.
1. Gerrit Cole, RHP
BORN: Sept. 8, 1990
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 1st round (1st overall), UCLA
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
The Pirates organization entered the 2011 amateur draft in an enviable
position with the first overall selection. The club had its pick from a
number of high-ceiling players and ultimately chose Cole. It’s easy to see
the move working out well for the organization as long as the right-hander
can stay healthy (and there are no red flags… or even yellow for that
matter). Cole, who has been a top prospect since his prep days and actually
turned down the Yankees as a first rounder in ’08, has the chance to develop
into a No. 1 starter and could get to Pittsburgh in short order. The
California native’s repertoire includes two strikeout pitches: a 92-97 mph
fastball and a slider. He also features a solid changeup. Expect Cole to open
2012 in either high-A or double-A and he could reach the Majors by year’s
end – unless the club wants to be cautious with his service time.
2. Josh Bell, OF
BORN: Aug. 14, 1992
EXPERIENCE: None
ACQUIRED: 2011 2nd round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
Bell’s ceiling matches Cole’s but, unlike the star pitching prospect, he won
’t be playing in Pittsburgh any time soon. The outfielder was a first-round
talent (possibly Top 5) based solely on his skill set but he was considered
the toughest of tough signs away from his commitment to the University of
Texas. A switch-hitter, he isn’t afraid to use the whole field and has raw
power to all fields, as well. Bell could hit 25-30 home runs in his prime.
Defensively he should be at least average in right field but could develop
into a plus fielder. He’ll likely head to low-A ball to begin 2012 unless
the organization decides he needs a little extra seasoning in extended spring
training. He should move one level at a time and could surface at the big
league level in 2015 – about the time this organization should be ready to
field a playoff-worthy club.
3. Jameson Taillon, RHP
BORN: Nov. 18, 1991
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round (2nd overall), Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 1st
Taillon has been surpassed by Cole as the best pitching prospect in the
system but it’s easy to envision the two sitting atop the Pirates starting
rotation within three to four seasons. The Pirates’ first pick of the ’10
draft has the stuff to rival Cole’s but he’s not nearly as polished.
Despite that fact, Taillon had a solid first year in low-A ball. He showed
excellent control with a walk rate of 2.14 BB/9 but his command was
inconsistent. Taillon has a big, strong pitcher’s frame and should have no
difficulties providing 200+ innings on a regular basis once he reaches the
Majors. The organization was patient with him in ’11 and watched his pitch
counts and innings, keeping him below 100 innings on the year. He has a
four-pitch mix that includes a 93-97 mph fastball, curveball, slider and
changeup; he has the potential for three plus pitches with his changeup
lagging behind the other offerings. Taillon will move up to high-A ball in ’
12 and will look to sharpen his secondary pitches. It’s possibly that he
could also spend some time in double-A but the organization may choose to be
cautious with him.
4. Tony Sanchez, C
BORN: May 20, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 3 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2010 1st round (4th overall), Boston College
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 2nd
Sanchez represents the third first round pick in the Top 4, showing just how
well the organization has drafted in the past three years (High picks don’t
always pan out in baseball). After two strong offensive seasons to begin his
career, the catcher struggled in double-A, which caused some to temper their
enthusiasm for his bat. When he stays within himself, though, Sanchez shows
the ability to hit for good gap power and he has a solid eye at the plate,
which allows him to limit to the Ks and pad his on-base percentage with a
solid number of walks. Defense is where Sanchez truly shines. He his an
excellent game caller and receiver. He has an above-average arm, which allows
him to control the running game, although it took a step back in ’11. Sanchez
’s struggles last year may have been caused by a jump in the competition’s
talent level but there is some thought that non-disclosed injuries may have
also played a role.
5. Robbie Grossman, OF
BORN: Sept. 16, 1989
EXPERIENCE: 4 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2008 6th round, Texas HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
Grossman took a big step forward in 2011 and attracted a lot of attention
from the “stat geeks” by walking more than 100 times in high-A ball, which
led to an on-base percentage of .418. The Texas native (who like Josh Bell
spurned U of Texas for a chance to play pro ball) also hit for average,
showed plus gap power and stole 24 bases (although he was caught 10 times).
Grossman will need to continue to show more home run pop if he’s going to
settle in as an everyday right-fielder but he offers a wide variety of
offensive skills so 15-20 home runs should be enough. The prospect has
clearly made impressive adjustments as he’s gained experience; his strikeout
rates have dipped from 31% in ’09 to 21% to 18%. Grossman also had an
impressive Arizona Fall League campaign in which he added another seven home
runs in 104 at-bats and impressed in just about every category. In the field
he has a solid skill set for right field, where he should be at least an
average defender. He’ll move up to double-A in 2012 and is about a year to a
year-and-a-half from the Majors.
6. Starling Marte, OF
BORN: Oct. 9, 1988
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 7th
Like Robbie Grossman, Marte is another outfielder that outfielder that really
took a step forward in ’11 and there is a fairly strong debate over which
outfielder is the better prospect right now. Marte has always hit for average
but he was a “soft .300 hitter,” and rarely showed much pop with the bat.
Although he’ll never be a big home run hitter, Marte’s gap power improved
significantly last season and he hit 38 doubles and 12 bombs. He’s still
learning the nuances of base stealing but could eventually develop into a
runner with 30+ steal potential. The Dominican native is a plus defender in
center field with outstanding range and a solid arm. Despite all the things
that Marte has going for him, his approach at the plate still hampers his
overall potential. He’s overly aggressive and pitchers at the MLB level
could eat him alive unless he becomes more selective. There were only 10
players that had more than 300 plate appearances in the Majors in 2011 with
walk rates below 4% and that list includes the likes of Vernon Wells, Alex
Gonzalez, Orlando Cabrera and Yuniesky Betancourt. Only one player (Darwin
Barney of the Cubs) had more than a one-win season (2.2 WAR).
7. Luis Heredia, RHP
BORN: Aug. 10, 1994
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2010 international free agent
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 4th
A number of organizations, including the Toronto Blue Jays, made strong plays
for Heredia but the young right-hander ultimately chose Pittsburgh. Still
quite young and very raw, he has an immense ceiling and the potential for
three plus pitches. He features a low-to-mid-90s fastball, curveball and
changeup. He has the chance to be an innings-eater thanks to his strong frame
and repeatable delivery. He struggled a bit with his control during his
debut, but he was just 16 years old and didn’t turn 17 until August. Because
he’s so young, Heredia is a lock to return to short-season ball in 2012
after spending time in extended spring training.
8. Kyle McPherson, RHP
BORN: Nov. 11, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 5 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2007 11th round, Alabama HS
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: Off
A stark contrast to the top of this list, McPherson is a scout’s special as
a player who was a low round draft pick that has worked hard to turn himself
into a solid prospect. The right-hander has the approach of a “crafty pitcher
” and is very good at changing speeds and spotting his pitches but his
fastball sits in the low 90s and can occasionally touch 94-95 mph. He has a
plus changeup and his curveball also shows promise. He works up in the zone
too much and is a fly-ball pitcher. Like the majority of Pittsburgh’s top
pitchers McPherson has a big, durable frame, which should allow him to
provide plenty of innings if he can improve his breaking ball. If he remains
a two-pitch pitcher, he could develop into a solid high-leverage reliever.
9. Jeff Locke, LHP
BORN: Nov. 20, 1987
EXPERIENCE: 6 seasons
ACQUIRED: 2006 2nd round, New Hampshire HS (by Atlanta)
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: 6th
After some inconsistency early in his career, Locke has improved
significantly over the past two seasons as his secondary pitches have
improved. He now features three average offerings and both his curveball and
changeup have the potential to be plus offerings at times. His heater comes
in 87-91 mph so he needs good command and control to survive. Locke has a
chance to break camp with the Pirates in 2012 but some extra seasoning in
triple-A might do him some good. He could be an excellent
back-of-the-rotation option as Pittsburgh rolls out its dynamic future
rotation including the likes of Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon.
10. Alex Dickerson, 1B
BORN: May 26, 1990
EXPERIENCE: 1 season
ACQUIRED: 2011 3rd round, U of Indiana
2010-11 TOP 10 RANKING: NA
A top college hitter entering 2011, Dickerson struggled as pitchers worked
around him and he battled back problems that have haunted him since his prep
days. The left-handed hitter has plus raw power but isn’t afraid to take
what pitchers give him and will go the other way. Now that he’s shifted from
left field to first base his bat will have to carry him – and if he can stay
healthy that is a distinct possibility. Defensively, Dickerson is nothing
special with the glove but he could take to first base with reps and
experience. He could face some eventually competition at first base if
current Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez makes the move across the
diamond. After hitting .313 at posting a wRC+ of 152 in short-season ball he
may be assigned to high-A ball to begin ’12.
The Next Five:
11. Stetson Allie, RHP: Jameson Taillon and Allie were considered by many to
be the Top 2 prep arms available in the 2010 draft. When the latter pitcher
slid to the second round Pittsburgh jumped all over him and got him signed to
an above-slot deal. His fastball can touch triple digits and his slider shows
the potential to be a wipe-out pitch if he can learn to command it. Allie
struggled in his debut when his command deserted him and he has a lot of work
to do before he’s ready even for full-season A-ball. He’ll certainly open
2012 in extended spring training in an attempt to find a consistent release
point and iron out his mechanical issues. Given his lack of control, as well
as the absence of a third pitch, it would probably be best for both Allie and
the organization is the focus is on preparing him for a career as a
high-leverage reliever.
12. Bryan Morris, RHP: Morris has been teasing the Pirates (and the Dodgers)
with his potential for years but injuries and inconsistencies have derailed
his career. He repeated double-A in 2011 and finally made the move from the
starting rotation to the bullpen. It helped his stuff play up and he did a
better job of working down in the zone. That resulted in a ton of ground-ball
outs which, combined with his good fastball in the low-to-mid-90s, makes him
a potential high-leverage reliever at the MLB level. Morris also features a
good breaking ball and he can worry less about his fringe changeup and so-so
slider.
13. Rudy Owens, LHP: Owens has a similar skill-set to Jeff Locke but his
secondary stuff is not nearly as polished. He struggled at triple-A in 2011
and posted a 5.05 ERA (4.11 FIP) and his strikeout rate dipped to 5.69 K/9.
Owens needs to regain command of his fastball if he’s going to spend
significant time in the Majors and he might be best suited for middle or long
relief unless he improves at least one of his secondary pitches.
14. Nick Kingham, RHP: Kingham’ s selection in the fourth round of the 2010
draft was overshadowed by the club’s selection of both Jameson Taillon
(first round) and Stetson Allie (second round). The Las Vegas native has an
excellent pitcher’s frame and good athleticism on the mound. His repertoire
includes an 88-93 mph fastball, and a potentially-plus changeup. He’s also
working to firm up his curveball. Kingham showed above-average control (1.90
BB/9) in short-season ball in 2011 and his strikeout rates should improve
(5.96 K/9) as he learns to better command his pitches.
15. Colton Cain, LHP: After signing for more than $1 million, Cain has been
somewhat of a disappointment to this point but he’s also been hampered by
back problems. If the southpaw can leave the health problems behind him, Cain
has the big frame to be an innings eater. He saw his innings total jumped
significantly from 2010 to 2011 (34.0 to 106.1) so that is a good sign that he
’s headed in the right direction. His repertoire includes an 87-92 mph
fastball, slider and changeup. Cain needs to use his size better and get more
of a downward plane on his pitches. He should move up from low-A to high-A in
2012.
SLEEPER ALERT: Alen Hanson, SS: Hanson was an under-the-radar signing out of
the Dominican Republic and he impressed during his second season in North
American in 2011. He should be able to stick at shortstop and displays both
good range and a solid arm. His best tool is his speed and he stole more than
20 base last season. He won’t hit for power but Hanson shows a solid
line-drive stroke – especially for his slight frame – and could hit for a
solid average – especially with his ability to beat out infield singles. He
could move up to low-A ball in 2012.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/top-15-prospects-pittsburgh-pirates/
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