[外電] 活塞的三支二輪籤─全部留著自用的機率?

看板Pistons (底特律活塞)作者wunai (無奈小袋鼠)時間4年前 (2021/07/29 22:38)推噓7(7推 0噓 2→)

留言9則, 7人參與討論串1/1

Pistons hold 3 second-round picks – what’s the likelihood they’ll keep all of them? 活塞今年有三支二輪籤─他們把三隻籤都留下來自己用的機率有多高? https://reurl.cc/MAmk3n 作者: Keith Langlois 發文日期: 美國日期 7/22 (這篇隨便翻~只是覺得這篇跟新的一篇加起來算是一整篇故事這樣) The Pistons began the NBA’s 2020-21 business year with zero second-round picks and emerged from it with three. The likelihood of them actually exercising all three of them a week from tonight when the NBA draft goes down? Probably somewhere around the NBA’s collective 3-point percentage, 36.7 percent. Maybe lower than that. 去年開季時，活塞在這次選秀還一支二輪籤都沒有，現在有三條。那三支籤都留著自己用的機率有多高咧? 大概跟NBA整體的三分命中率差不多吧─36.7%，或者更低。 And the likelihood of the Pistons carrying four drafted rookies on their roster next season as they did last? Practically nil. 那像去年那樣，帶著四隻小菜鳥來打下一季的機率咧? 不可能啦~ They won’t have the roster space, almost certainly. Of the few spots available, one will certainly go to the player the Pistons draft with the No. 1 pick next week and one or two more to veteran free agents signed to fill specific needs and better balance the roster from both a skills and experience standpoint. 首先，陣容人數空間就幾乎肯定不夠了。對於目前還有的位置，至少有一支要給今年狀元，還有一兩張椅子給有經驗的自由球員，來打造不論是技能還是經驗都更平衡的陣容。 There’s nothing unusual about teams engaging in draft-night trades that see second-round picks flipped elsewhere. The second-rounders the Pistons hold currently came from Brooklyn in the Bruce Brown trade, from New York in the Derrick Rose trade and from Sacramento in the Delon Wright trade. Their own second-round pick was traded on draft night two years ago. 在選秀日那天，看到二輪籤在不同球隊之間飛來飛去就是一個正常。活塞這次的三支籤，一支是透過Bruce Brown的交易從籃網手上拿到，一支是Rose的交易從尼克那兒來，一支是Delon Wright的交易從國王來。至於自己的那支籤兩年前就送出去了。 It says something about the fungibility of second-round picks that none of the three incoming are originally picks from the Pistons’ trade partner. The Brooklyn pick comes from Toronto and will be 37th overall. The New York pick belonged to Charlotte and will be 42nd overall. The Sacramento pick was routed from the Los Angeles Lakers and will be 52nd overall. 這三支籤，也不是這三場交易球隊自己原本的籤，說明了二輪籤的高度可替代性。籃網的籤是暴龍的37號籤，尼克的是黃蜂的42號籤，國王的是湖人的52號籤。 (看得都頭暈好嗎) Historically, picks in the 30s yield two or three players from most drafts that wind up having long, successful NBA careers. Since 2009, the Pistons have drafted a number of players in the 30s who made a mark. Khris Middleton, the 39th pick in 2012 who helped Milwaukee to the 2021 NBA title and will join the United States Olympic team in Tokyo, stands out. The Pistons had to throw him in as the sweetener in the 2013 exchange of point guards that sent Brandon Knight to the Bucks for Brandon Jennings. 從NBA的歷史來看，30幾順位的球員大概有兩三個可以在聯盟裡混得不錯。2009年以來，活塞選的30幾順位球員中最讓人有印象的就是才幫公鹿拿到金盃然後正在東京好熱(X)奧運(O)的蜜豆湯(2012-39順位)。他在2013年就被打包到公鹿去換來建寧公主。 Other players the Pistons drafted in the 30s since then include Jonas Jerebko (39, 2009), Kyle Singler (33, 2011) and Spencer Dinwiddie (38, 2014). The list of players they’ve drafted in the 30s since then who had little to no NBA impact includes DaJuan Summers (35, 2009), Terrico White (36, 2010), Tony Mitchell (37, 2013), Darrun Hilliard (38, 2015) and Khyri Thomas (38, 2019). 其他在30幾順位的球員包括Jerebko(2009-39)、Kyle Singler(2011-33)和丁威迪(2014 -38)。其他讓人幾乎沒印象的還有...(實在太沒印象我就不列了...) Rookie Deividas Sirvydis, the 37th pick in 2019, had a strong finish to the 2020-21 season and Saben Lee, the 38th pick in 2020, is part of the group Pistons general manager Troy Weaver calls the “core four” along with 2020 first-rounders Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart and Saddiq Bey. 2019年37順位的Sirvydis在上個賽季有個不錯的收尾，2020年38順位的Saben Lee則是已經被Weaver指定為球隊的"核心四人"(Hayes、Stewart、Bey)。 The deeper you get into the second round, generally, the longer the odds of finding a player who sticks and leaves a mark. Brown was the 42nd pick in 2018 and should stir some interest on the free-agent market this summer. The only other players the Pistons have drafted since 2009 in the 40s were Kim English (44, 2012) and Michael Gbinije (49, 2016). 二輪選秀再往後去，要找到能夠在NBA生存的球員就更少了。Bruce Brown是2018年42順位，而他看起來是今年夏天會有球隊有興趣的自由球員。2009年以來，活塞是還有選兩個40幾順位的球員啦。 The 2014 draft had an interesting four-player run that began with the Pistons ’ selection of Dinwiddie, whose college season had ended with a January knee injury that caused him to slide. The next three players taken have all gone on to meaningful to spectacular NBA careers: Jerami Grant at 39, Glenn Robinson III at 40 and reigning MVP Nikola Jokic at 41. The four players who went immediately ahead of them: Cleanthony Early, Jarnell Stokes, Johnny O’ Bryant and DeAndre Daniels. Yeah, it’s a crapshoot. 2014的二輪選秀有一段很有趣的順序，從38順位的丁丁開始，那年大學他的膝蓋中了一箭導致順位下滑，接下來39到41分別是Jeremi Grant、Glen Robinson III和Nikola Jokic(我小丑啦)。這幾個球員後來的表現大超車了他們前面的三個球員。(還真沒印象) In the 50s, it’s pretty much throwing darts. The Pistons have drafted 10 players in the 50s since 2000 and the only one who enjoyed a fruitful NBA career was Amir Johnson, the 58th pick in 2005 – the last draft for high school players to be eligible. Johnson had signed with Louisville but was ruled academically ineligible, pushing him to enter the draft. 到了50幾順位，基本上就是在射飛鏢啦。2000年以來，活塞選了10個在這個順位範圍的球員，只有一個人打得還不錯─2005年58順位的Amir Johnson。那是最後一年高中選秀。Johnson本來要去Louisville大學，但結果學業成績太差，只好直接參加選秀。 So if the expectation is that the Pistons aren’t going to draft three players they intend to be part of the 2021-22 roster, what are the possibilities? They could trade one or more picks for future second-rounders, an option that grows in appeal given the fact the Pistons have traded all of their second-round picks through 2027, though they have picks coming from elsewhere in both 2023 and ’24. 所以如果活塞沒有要留著自用，那這些二輪籤怎辦?看來至少會交易掉至少一支籤，來交換未來的二輪籤，畢竟活塞接下來一直到2027年的二輪籤都已經送人了。阿不過2023和 2024都還有從別人家那兒來的籤。 The pick at 37 could probably yield two future second-rounders. That was the price the Pistons paid to acquire the 38th pick two years ago from Philadelphia, using it for Thomas.The Pistons could also use the pick and sign that player to a two-way contract as they did with Lee last season. The pick at 42 could also yield two future second-round picks, perhaps, though it ’s a little less certain of its value given the typical cutoff range for expected outcomes at that point of the draft. 37順位籤大概價值兩支未來二輪籤，這是兩年前活塞從76人交換來38號籤(Khyri Thomas) 的價碼。或是把這支籤選來的球員簽一張雙向合約，今年跟Lee的合約就是這樣簽的。42 號籤也有機會換到兩支未來的籤，但就比較不確定了，因為這個順位選到的球員，堪用和丟水裡的機率就差不多是一半一半了。 Another possibility is to use at least one of the picks on an international player who would continue to play overseas and develop rather than immediately occupying a precious roster spot for 2021-22. But the ranks got thinned last week with several prospects withdrawing from the draft. Among them were a handful or more who were projected anywhere from the late first round into the 50s: Roko Prkacin, Carlos Alocen, Malcolm Cazalon, Olek Balcerowski, Ibou Badji and Gabriele Procida. 另一個可能是把其中一支籤拿來選國際球員，然後讓他繼續放洋，這樣又能達到球員養成，又不會占用陣容空間。但是今年幾個看起來比較有潛力的球員都紛紛退出選秀，所以採用這個做法的機率就變低了。 We’ll take a look at some of the players remaining in the draft as potential second-round prospects next week. 下周再來看看還留在今年選秀中，可能在二輪被選中的球員有哪些。 ------- 昨天晚上本來以為作者要放羊了，結果剛剛下班回家看到他發了新的二輪選秀討論文。等等接著這篇再放上啊。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 123.194.139.195 (臺灣) ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Pistons/M.1627569501.A.7BB.html