[情報] DSL Prospects: Projecting Pitchers
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DSL Prospects: Projecting Pitchers
By Ben Badler / March 26, 2009
After looking back at the performance records of current big league hitters
when they were in the Dominican Summer League, let's turn our attention to
trying to find the next Bartolo Colon, Edinson Volquez or Johnny Cueto.
As was the case with hitters, we don't have a comprehensive set of DSL data,
but we do have DSL records for every pitcher who has been active since the
2006 season. For pitchers, I pulled the DSL records for every pitcher who has
had at least one season in which he was at least 20 pitcher-only runs above
replacement (PRAR), a marginal value metric developed by Baseball Prospectus.
A pitcher with 20 PRAR in one season should be approximately league average.
I also included pitchers who had at least three seasons of 10 or more PRAR,
which helps credit relievers who have put up good numbers in multiple years
but who don't pitch as many innings as starters. Examples include Julian
Tavarez and Duaner Sanchez.
We could lower the threshold slightly, which would allow us to count pitchers
like Claudio Vargas, Esteban Yan and Runelvys Hernandez. Any pitcher who
starts at a team's Dominican academy and ends up contributing even in a
nominal way in the major leagues should be considered a success, but as
you'll see I don't think including them makes a difference in the conclusions
we can draw from the data either way.
Note that for pitchers who pitched in the DSL in the late 1980s, some
statistics—hit by pitches, wild pitches, sac flies and home runs, among
others—are not available.
DOMINICAN SUMMER LEAGUE PITCHERS
PLAYER, YEAR AGE TM ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 K/9
Pedro Martinez, 1988 16 LAD 3.10 49 45 25 17 16 28 2.9 5.1
Pedro Martinez, 1989 17 LAD 2.73 86 59 30 26 25 63 2.6 6.6
Al Reyes, 1989 18 MON 2.79 71 68 36 22 33 49 4.2 6.2
Armando Benitez, 1990 17 BAL 2.71 43.1 39 23 13 1 20 34 4.2 7.1
Salomon Torres, 1990 18 SFG 0.50 90 44 12 5 0 27 101 2.7 10.1
Antonio Alfonseca, 1990 18 MON 3.65 59.2 60 59 24 0 32 19 4.9 2.9
Giovani Carrara, 1990 22 TOR 2.64 85.2 88 31 25 0 28 55 3.0 5.8
Julian Tavarez, 1990 17 CLE 11.57 4.2 6 6 6 0 7 1 15.0 2.1
Julian Tavarez, 1991 18 CLE 2.67 121.1 95 41 36 1 28 75 2.1 5.6
Kelvim Escobar, 1993 17 TOR 4.13 32.2 34 17 15 25 31 7.0 8.7
PLAYER, YEAR AGE TM ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 K/9
Bartolo Colon, 1993 20 CLE 2.59 66 44 24 19 0 33 43 4.5 5.9
Octavio Dotel, 1993 19 NYM 4.10 59.1 46 30 27 1 38 48 5.8 7.3
Octavio Dotel, 1994 20 NYM 4.32 81.1 84 53 39 12 31 95 3.4 10.5
Damaso Marte, 1993 18 SEA 6.55 56.1 62 48 41 5 50 29 8.0 4.7
Damaso Marte, 1994 19 SEA 3.86 65.1 53 41 28 5 48 80 6.6 11.1
Francisco Cordero, 1994 19 DET 3.90 60 65 47 26 1 27 36 4.1 5.4
Freddy Garcia, 1994 19 HOU 5.29 85 80 61 50 1 38 68 4.0 7.2
Ramon Ortiz, 1995 22 LAA 2.23 97 79 44 24 2 54 100 5.0 9.3
Luis Vizcaino, 1995 20 OAK 2.27 115 93 41 29 3 29 89 2.3 7.0
Johan Santana, 1996 17 HOU 2.70 40 26 16 12 1 22 51 5.0 11.5
PLAYER, YEAR AGE TM ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 K/9
Joaquin Benoit, 1996 18 TEX 2.28 75 63 26 19 4 23 63 2.8 7.6
Julio Mateo, 1996 18 SEA 1.74 51.2 42 14 10 3 19 23 3.3 4.0
Jorge Julio, 1996 17 MON 6.06 16.1 13 12 11 1 11 21 6.1 11.7
Jesus Colome, 1997 19 OAK 2.71 89.2 73 33 27 4 22 55 2.2 5.5
Duaner Sanchez, 1997 17 ARI 5.13 59.2 57 50 34 3 48 44 7.3 6.7
Duaner Sanchez, 1998 18 ARI 1.79 50.1 36 19 10 0 24 44 4.3 7.9
Jose Valverde, 1997 17 ARI 5.30 18.2 20 12 11 1 13 19 6.4 9.4
Jose Valverde, 1998 18 ARI 1.75 51.1 31 14 10 2 22 56 3.9 9.9
Gustavo Chacin, 1998 17 TOR 2.70 36.2 28 12 11 0 15 56 3.7 13.9
Frank Francisco, 1998 18 BOS 10.31 48 44 66 55 4 76 53 14.3 9.9
PLAYER, YEAR AGE TM ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO BB/9 K/9
Fausto Carmona, 2001 17 CLE 3.11 75.1 69 36 26 0 12 47 1.4 5.6
Manny Corpas, 2001 18 COL 2.24 56.1 56 23 14 0 17 41 2.7 6.6
Ubaldo Jimenez, 2001 17 COL 4.88 48 41 36 26 1 44 36 8.3 6.8
Ubaldo Jimenez, 2002 18 COL 0.00 18.1 10 1 0 0 6 25 3.0 12.4
Edinson Volquez, 2002 18 TEX 2.68 47 45 19 14 1 14 58 2.7 11.1
Rafael Perez, 2002 20 CLE 0.96 75.1 58 14 8 3 16 81 1.9 9.7
Sometimes a pitcher dominates the DSL. Johan Santana, Edinson Volquez and
Gustavo Chacin all were stellar in the DSL, posting ERAs below 3.00 and
striking out more than 11 batters per nine innings (though Santana pitched as
a reliever). Jose Valverde was a lights-out closer for Arizona in the DSL in
1998. Fausto Carmona had a modest strikeout rate, but he maintained a 3.11
ERA, walked just 1.4 batters per nine and allowed zero home runs in 75 1/3
innings.
But mostly the performance record doesn't seem to tell us much, even the
peripheral numbers that tend to have more predictive value. Our sample of
pitchers combined to walk 4.1 batters per nine innings and strike out 7.5 per
nine—pedestrian numbers for the low minors. Pedro Martinez, who ranks 13th
on MLB's all-time strikeout list with 3,117, whiffed just 5.1 batters per
nine innings in his first year in the DSL and 6.6 per nine the following
season. Colon's 1,569 career strikeouts put him among the top 150 of all time
in that category, yet he struck out just 5.9 batters per nine even as a
20-year-old.
There are plenty of ugly strikeout-to-walk ratios. Kelvim Escobar walked 25
batters in 32 2/3 innings. Damaso Marte walked 50 and struck out 29 in 56 1/3
innings. Ubaldo Jimenez also had more walks (44) than strikeouts (36) in 48
innings in 2001, showing that he was about as raw as they come by also
throwing 13 wild pitches, hitting 11 batters and committing seven balks.
At the DSL level, pitchers tend to be extremely raw, in terms of everything
from the quality of their stuff to their mechanics to their knowledge of how
to attack hitters. Pitchers—especially the ones who have large, projectable
frames—are often still growing into their bodies. That growth, which
sometimes includes an increase in height, can make it difficult for a pitcher
to harness his mechanics, repeat his release point and, in turn, control his
pitches. Many of these pitchers haven't maxed out with their peak fastball
velocity yet, so as a pitcher fills out and refines his mechanics, he can go
from having a mid-80s fastball to throwing in the low-90s.
Take 20-year-old Kelvin de la Cruz. The 6-foot-5 lefthander signed with the
Indians out of the Dominican Republic in 2004, when he topped out in the
mid-80s with his fastball. As he's matured with his mechanics and filled out
his frame, his peak fastball velocity has grown to 94 mph, sitting at 89-92
with possibly room for more gains. As a 16-year-old in the DSL in 2004, de la
Cruz struck out 17 percent of the 229 batters he faced. Last season as a
19-year-old with low Class A Lake County, de la Cruz whiffed 25 percent of
the 386 batters he faced. We normally wouldn't expect a pitcher's strikeout
rate to increase as he climbs the minor league ladder, but when a pitcher can
dramatically improve how hard he throws between 16 and 20 years old, that
difference in input can dramatically affect the output.
While the improvement of the four-seam fastball helps many pitchers, others
at the DSL level benefit from their first taste of professional instruction.
Players at that age don't usually have command of their offspeed stuff, and
the changeup is rarely even an average pitch in their first season.
Introducing a two-seam fastball to a pitcher's repertoire can also help a
pitcher take off, as it did for Rockies righthander Jhoulys Chacin.
If a pitcher in the DSL has good stuff and is putting up good numbers, then
that's great, and it could be a sign of both projectability and some polish.
But even if a pitcher's performance in the DSL is either mediocre or even
downright dreadful, it doesn't seem to matter all that much, as long as
scouts see projection there.
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