[討論] Success rates (based on BB & K rate)

看板Prospect作者tanaka0826 (田中鬪莉王)時間10年前 (2013/11/06 02:31)推噓3(3推 0噓 1→)

留言4則, 3人參與討論串1/1

http://0rz.tw/bR5aL (R) http://0rz.tw/Aub5M (SS) http://0rz.tw/xjt8T (A) 目前出到A -- 參考樣本取在1990 ~ 2007、top 100 prospects，至少75 PA。高、平均與低的標準：BB+/SO+在 85-115 為average；但是如果某球員的BB+在83，則要參考低 & 平均(取上下多5，78-88) BB% SO% Low 7.7% 15.4% High 10.5% 20.8% 生涯1500PA達到0.01 Batting runs 列為"Productive" ；不足1500PA與Batting runs不足0.01者列為"Bust" (Edgar Renteria也會被列為Bust...) 以下將分成： ╔════════╗ ╔════════╗ ╔════════╗ ║ ∩_＿＿_∩ ║ ║ ∩_＿＿_∩ ║ ║ ∩_＿＿_∩ ║ ║ | ︵︵ | ║ ║ | ︵︵ | ║ ║ | ︵︵ | ║ ║ ∕_▄︵▄_﹨ ║ ║ ∕(⊙)(⊙)﹨ ║ ║ ∕-⊙－⊙-﹨ ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ ﹨ |︿| ∕ ║ ║ ﹨ |∪| ∕ ║ ║ ﹨ |皿| ∕ ║ ╚═低保送低三振═╝ ╚═低保送中三振═╝ ╚═低保送高三振═╝ ╔════════╗ ╔════════╗ ╔════════╗ ║ ∩_＿＿_∩ ║ ║ ∩_＿＿_∩ ║ ║？ ∩_＿＿_∩ ║ ║ | ︿︿ | ║ ║ | ︵︵ | ║ ║ |u︵︵ | ？║ ║ ∕(⊙)(⊙)﹨ ║ ║ ∕(○)(○)﹨ ║ ║ ∕(⊙)(⊙)﹨ ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ ﹨ |□| ∕ ║ ║ ﹨ |∪| ∕ ║ ║ ﹨ |∪|υ∕ ║ ╚═中保送低三振═╝ ╚═中保送中三振═╝ ╚═中保送高三振═╝ ╔════════╗ ╔════════╗ ╔════════╗ ║ ∩_＿＿_∩ ║ ║ ∩_＿＿_∩ ║ ║ ◢∩_＿＿_∩◣ ║ ║ | ︵︵ | ║ ║ | ︵︵ | ║ ║ ◥◣︵︵◢◤ ║ ║ ∕(◎)(◎)﹨ ║ ║ ∕(⊙)(⊙)﹨ ║ ║ ∕(⊙)(⊙)﹨ ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ |≡(_●_)≡| ║ ║ ﹨ |∪| ∕ ║ ║ ﹨ |▽| ∕ ║ ║ ﹨ |∪| ∕ ║ ╚═高保送低三振═╝ ╚═高保送中三振═╝ ╚═高保送高三振═╝ -- 菜鳥聯盟 http://cdn1.sbnation.com/assets/3273693/ProspectPercentRookie.jpg

分類 http://cdn2.sbnation.com/assets/3273709/ProspectOverallRookie.jpg

overall Conclusion Players who are 21 or older in rookie ball are behind in their development. Historically, the most productive hitters to come out of this level are at the extremes in their approach – either they walk and strike out a lot or don ’t do much of either. Oddly enough, the players who are just average at those things have not gone on to have much success in the major leagues. As with any statistical analysis of minor league players, everything must be viewed in context and compared with scouting reports. However, this should create a basis for conversation on some players. Which other players in Rookie ball caught your eye this year? BB+ SO+ Prod% Avg% Bust% Travis Demeritte 174 141 43% 0 % 57% J.P. Crawford 157 75 10% 10% 80% Clint Frazier 91 157 0% 25% 75% The biggest red flag Austin Meadows 134 112 34% 6% 60% (三振率31%) Reese McGuire 80 46 31% 19% 50% Hunter Dozier 143 63 0% 20% 80% Oscar Mercado 100 107 0% 11% 89% Daniel Palka 127 94 0% 0% 100% -- 短期A http://cdn3.sbnation.com/assets/3314863/ProspectPercentShortA.jpg

分類 http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/3314871/ProspectOverallShortA.jpg

overall Conclusion Short-season A is very similar to the Rookie levels in that extreme approaches lend themselves to more productive future hitters. However, the hitters tend to be slightly older in this level, probably due to teams sending college draft picks there immediately after signing. Which other players in Short-season A ball caught your eye this year? BB+ SO+ Prod% Avg% Bust% Brian Ragira 145 122 40% 20% 40% Brandon Thomas 127 155 40% 20% 40% Kris Bryant 123 107 17% 0% 83% Tzu-Wei Lin 127 109 3% 0% 67% Gavin Cecchini 78 68 25% 25% 50% Matthew Oberste 43 99 0% 0% 100% -- 1A http://cdn3.sbnation.com/assets/3350503/ProspectPercentA.jpg

統計 http://cdn0.sbnation.com/assets/3350511/ProspectOverallA.jpg

Overall Conclusion Single-A is the place where prospects start honing their approach. Those who are able to do so get the call up to better and more advanced leagues, while those who don’t start to flame out quickly. Extreme approaches are no longer rewarded but instead a good mix of walking more than striking out. Which other players in single-A caught your eye this year? BB+ SO+ Prod% Avg% Bust% Jeimer Candelario 135 75 42% 8% 50% Jesse Winker 147 76 42% 8% 50% Albert Almora 71 54 35% 12% 53% Byron Buxton 156 85 34% 10% 56% Carlos Correa 127 78 33% 0% 67% Mookie Betts 194 58 27% 18% 55% Jorge Alfaro 76 129 17% 17% 67% Rangers Patrick Kivlehan 78 83 17% 10% 73% Gregory Bird 212 113 15% 8% 77% Barrett Barnes 94 114 14% 7% 79% Lewis Brinson 109 186 11% 11% 78% Rangers Roman Quinn 103 105 9% 9% 82% Nick Williams 42 133 0% 15% 85% Rangers Joey Gallo 122 181 0% 0% 100% Rangers Victor Roache 101 130 0% 0% 100% Brandon Dixon 55 140 0% 0% 100% Nomar Mazara 99 127 0% 0% 100% Rangers -- "HARD WORK BEATS TALENT WHEN TALENT FAILS TO WORK HARD." -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.114.207.209