[情報] Keith Law's Farm Systems Rankings

看板Prospect作者Westmoreland (Five Tools/Seven Skills)時間15年前 (2010/01/28 07:10)推噓4(4推 0噓 0→)

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※ [本文轉錄自 MLB 看板] 作者: Westmoreland (Five Tools/Seven Skills) 看板: MLB 標題: [情報] Keith Law's Organizational Rankings 時間: Thu Jan 28 07:09:16 2010 Rangers' farm system still loaded By Keith Law As I did last year, I offer this teaser to Thursday's ranking of the Top 100 prospects in baseball by ranking the 30 farm systems based on the current inventory in each organization. This ranking includes only players who are still eligible for the Top 100 prospects ranking -- that is, players who still retain rookie status for 2010. A system that recently "graduated" a number of top prospects -- Oakland, for example, with Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Vin Mazzaro and Andrew Bailey losing eligibility for the ranking -- will rank lower on this list because I'm considering only what is currently on the farm. It's a snapshot look rather than a look back over a year or two of farm productivity. So at the bottom you will see a mix of teams that have graduated or traded good prospects in the last year and teams that just haven't done a very good job of stocking the system. Within each system, I considered the entire list of prospects but gave much more weight to top prospects, particularly high-impact prospects, than to organizational depth in average to fringe-average prospects. I also considered how much major league value each organization is likely to produce over the next few years. So a system with high-impact prospects who are relatively close to the majors ranks high, even if the system lacks depth in second- and third-tier prospects. Of course, a couple of impact prospects plus organizational depth is ideal. 1. Texas Rangers The best system in baseball for the second year in a row, the Rangers are strong in many areas down on the farm. They continue to draft or sign young pitching in what is starting to look like a pathological fear of an impending pitcher shortage, and their stable of arms includes potential No. 1 and No. 2 starters to innings-eater types to front-line relievers. They have big bats, some with positions (Justin Smoak) and some not so much with the glove thing (Mitch Moreland). Their system was light on middle infielders, so they signed two of the top international free-agent shortstops in Jurickson Profar and Raul Sardinas. They're light behind the plate and in center field, but they're headed for a situation where they have excess pitching and can actually trade some of it to fill other needs, an enviable position for any team unwilling to pay market prices for major league free agents. Even a shaky 2009 draft class, for which the Rangers didn't sign their first-round pick and took a couple of toolsy high school players who are light-years from being productive in pro ball, didn't sink this system, as they were active again in the international market and picked up an out-of-favor prospect from Kansas City during the season. GM Jon Daniels, who has overseen the farm system's renaissance, recently gave international scouting director A.J. Preller -- who is responsible not just for Texas' signings in Latin America but for identifying players like Neftali Feliz, Engel Beltre, and Carlos Melo as throw-ins in larger trades -- responsibility for the Rule 4 draft as well, consolidating all amateur scouting under one person and perhaps leading to a quick bounce-back from a poor performance in last year's draft. The AL West has suddenly become very competitive, with four well-run organizations all trying to balance immediate contention with long-term building goals, but Texas remains the best-positioned team there for long-term success. 2. Boston Red Sox The Red Sox have more players in the top 100 than the Rangers and have almost comparable depth, but they don't have the high-end prospects to match a Smoak, a Feliz, or a Martin Perez, all of whom are high-ceiling and nearly major league-ready. Boston has stuffed its lower levels with gambles on over-slot high school kids after the first two rounds, giving the Red Sox a chance to add those high-ceiling kids even though they don't typically have a pick among the first 20 overall. 3. Tampa Bay Rays The Rays have graduated a fair amount of talent in recent years but continue to come up with arms, while using their stumble last year to flip Scott Kazmir and add three solid prospects to their system. They could easily graduate three more above-average or better prospects this year if openings arise at the big league level. 4. Cleveland Indians They continue to build depth without a ton of impact prospects, although Carlos Santana and Lonnie Chisenhall are exceptions to that rule, and they have a handful of low-A/short-season guys who could break away from the pack. There's still value in a system that can keep pumping out average or fringe-average big leaguers, simply because it keeps you away from the Jason Kendalls of the free-agent market. 5. Atlanta Braves Having Jason Heyward helps, but they have a troika of Latin American arms about to march up the system that would make a heck of a 2-3-4 behind Tommy Hanson starting in 2013 or so. They would have been higher except for a brutal draft in 2009. 6. Baltimore Orioles A top-10 system despite the graduations of Matt Wieters and Chris Tillman as well as several lower-tier young arms speaks volumes about the organization's turnaround under GM Andy MacPhail and scouting director Joe Jordan. 7. Chicago Cubs They've hit on several top draft picks under scouting director Tim Wilken as well as a couple of later-round finds, but the system is led by 19-year-old Dominican shortstop Starlin Castro, who is already in Double-A. 8. Colorado Rockies A solid mix of high-end arms like Tyler Matzek and Rex Brothers, tools prospects like Hector Gomez and Wilin Rosario, and safer college guys like Tim Wheeler. The system also just spit out Seth Smith and Dexter Fowler, both of whom contributed to the Rockies' playoff berth in 2009, as well as most of the core of the '07 pennant winner. 9. Kansas City Royals Could easily be a top-five system in a year with the sheer number of arms they have headed to high-A and Double-A, as well as a couple of talented bats coming off disappointing years in Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. 10. Cincinnati Reds A couple of near-in prospects, including pitchers Aroldis Chapman, Mike Leake and Travis Wood, combined with some raw but tooled-up Latin American position players, including Juan Duran, who has grown three inches since signing and now stands at 6-foot-7. 11. San Diego Padres The Padres' low-A affiliate and extended spring rosters will be stacked with prospects between their 2009 draft class and their stable of young Latin American signings, but there's almost nothing in the cupboard at the higher levels after the team spent years drafting low-ceiling college players. 12. Florida Marlins A top-heavy system with two potential monster bats and a monster glove at third base, but very little up the middle, plus it lacks potential starters after '09 first-rounder Chad James. The Marlins do replenish the farm regularly through trades and, of course, promote aggressively from within. 13. Minnesota Twins They could have two perennial All-Star bats in Aaron Hicks and the just- signed Miguel Jean (Sano), and grabbed a few talented arms who fell in the 2009 draft, but there's not much in the upper levels to help the team in 2010. 14. Oakland A's A year ago, they were flush with pitching, but most of it ended up in the big leagues, so the strength of the system is now position players; the A's are primed to jump back into the top 10 once guys like Grant Green, Max Stassi and the mysterious Michel Ynoa get full years under their belts. 15. New York Mets It's fashionable in New York to bash their system, but productive international scouting continues to bail out their draft efforts, which are repeatedly hamstrung by ownership's refusal to exceed slot in the first few rounds. 16. Toronto Blue Jays Let's just say it's a good thing for this list that they traded Halladay and Rolen; without those four prospects (Kyle Drabek, Zach Stewart, Brett Wallace, Travis d'Arnaud), the Jays might have ranked last. 17. Detroit Tigers Their top prospect, Rick Porcello, graduated, but they replaced him with another high-ceiling arm in Jacob Turner and added a number of prospects or low-service big leaguers in the Curtis Granderson trade. 18. Pittsburgh Pirates They're gradually adding depth to another farm system that was left fallow by a previous regime, but right now it's very light on upside. They took a number of fliers in the 2009 draft on prep arms, but it remains to be seen whether any of them will emerge as top prospects. 19. Los Angeles Dodgers They have almost nothing at the upper levels, but are overflowing with power arms below that. Possibly the best organization at converting players from one position to another, or from hitting to pitching, or vice versa. 20. San Francisco Giants A number of promising prospects here had disappointing seasons, so it's a system that could bounce back in 2010 even without a major infusion of talent. The Giants still have two to four very high-ceiling guys, but the supporting cast is thinner than it looked a year ago. 21. Seattle Mariners I would say acquiring Cliff Lee and pushing for a pennant run qualify as good reasons to gut a farm system. One of the game's best international scouting groups continues to find prospects all over the globe. 22. Los Angeles Angels Extra picks in this year's draft likely made it easier for GM Tony Reagins to trade three prospects for Scott Kazmir, but the result is that the bulk of the value in their system is now in the lower levels, much of it high-risk/high-reward. 23. Washington Nationals Getting there, slowly, but a number of top draft picks from 2006 to 2008 haven't developed as expected, and two of their top three guys -- including Stephen Strasburg -- came in the 2009 draft. 24. Philadelphia Phillies They kept their best prospect, Domonic Brown but traded everyone else, and their next wave of impact guys largely spent 2009 in short-season ball. The Lee trade with Seattle restored some depth between Brown and the Anthony Goses and Sebastian Valles of the system. 25. New York Yankees Lost picks and trades depleted the system; they traded two guys currently in the top 100. After Jesus Montero, the next impact guys are probably Slade Heathcott and Gary Sanchez, with three pro games combined to date, while their highest-ceiling arm, Andrew Brackman, struggled with command in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery. 26. Milwaukee Brewers They have a few moderately high-ceiling bats but very little in the way of pitching, which seems to be sort of a chronic problem for this organization. Eric Arnett and Jake Odorizzi do offer some hope on the mound, but both are probably a few years off. 27. Arizona Diamondbacks The Diamondbacks tied for the fewest players in the top 100 of any team, but I could see them landing five or six more spots next year after they had the best draft of any club in 2009. The system was all but barren before that draft, however, and it's going to take some time for that new talent to percolate on to the master ranking. 28. Houston Astros Two drafts under new scouting director Bobby Heck got the Astros out of the cellar, but the scorched earth he inherited will take more time to reach the top half of this list. Emphasis on athletes and prep arms gives them a shot at ceiling but with some added risk. They also seem to be inching back into involvement in Latin America after giving a six- figure bonus to Dominican righty Edgar Ferreira in December. 29. St. Louis Cardinals The Matt Holliday trade cost them both depth and one impact prospect, and the Mark DeRosa trade cost more depth, while uber-prospect Colby Rasmus spent the year in the majors and no longer qualifies as part of the farm system. I may be underrating their 2009 draft, particularly USC catcher Robert Stock, who had a strong pro debut after a disappointing college career, and they do have power arms in the system, many of whom project right now as relievers. 30. Chicago White Sox They don't spend money in the draft, they don't spend much in Latin America except for Cuban free agents who might be closer to the big leagues, they've been quick to trade prospects for major league value when they were contending, and their first overall pick from 2008, future star Gordon Beckham, is already ineligible for this list (one of only two first-rounders from 2008 to do so). They did take on a little more risk than usual with their first draft pick in 2009, outfielder Jared Mitchell, a high-ceiling, two-sport college player, who is probably their best shot at getting an impact player from anyone in their system right now. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.160.66.244 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.160.66.244