Hitter Profile: Justin Smoak (Part One)
http://tinyurl.com/8al4d8
Justin Smoak just might be the one that got away from Billy Beane. He fits
the mold of the Moneyball-type player that the A's stereotypically want -
defensively-challenged (can't play anywhere but 1b), hit for a decent average
in college, slugged a ton of doubles and home runs, and walked a bunch. In
fact, Smoak was drafted by the A's in the 16th round after he graduated high
school (fun fact: he played with top Orioles prospect Matt Wieters in South
Carolina), but was in touch with advisors who told him that Oakland wanted to
take him with the 36th overall pick and sign him for $950,000. Smoak demanded
"$1 million and nothing less" to sign but the A's stood firm at $950,000,
refusing to give in.
Oh, Billy Beane, why have you forsaken him?
Smoak did nothing but mash for the South Carolina Gamecocks, batting
.315/.434/.631 over 260 AB and launching 22 home runs and 16 doubles. He
showed off plate discipline (iso-obp of .129 with a 54:40 bb/k ratio) and had
decent to above-average hands and range at first base.
Smoak was projected to go in the top ten picks of 2008, but when Angel
Villalona was moved to 1b by the Giants, they had an easy pick in Buster
Posey. The Marlins went with Kyle Skipworth, the Reds liked Yonder Alonso
better, the White Sox wanted a middle infield prospect (James Beckham), the
Nationals took (and failed to sign) Aaron Crow, and the Astros inexplicably
took Jason Castro. With the Rangers waiting at #11 and the Athletics at #12,
there was no doubt that Billy and company were hoping to see Smoak fall to
them. It was not to be - the Rangers swiped Smoak and the Athletics had to
settle for Jemile Weeks, which many people considered a stretch (he will not
hit for power, he is limited to second base, and he is not especially fast).
Smoak inked a minor-league contract with a $3.5 million signing bonus just 15
minutes before the MLB deadline. Regarding the signing, GM Jon Daniels said:
"This is a day we would have liked to have seen happen two months ago. But we
think 10 or 15 years from now that will be irrelevant."
Smoak only had 56 AB in 2008 in the Midwest League due to the negotiations,
but batted .304/.355/.518 in his short-stint in the Texas Rangers farm system.
Here's what Smoak's swing looks like as a lefty (thanks to Baseball-Intellect
for the video):
In Part Two of our analysis, we'll break down that swing and talk about what
we like and what we don't like about Smoak's hitting mechanics.
EDIT: Here's another image provided by the folks at Hitting Illustrated:
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