[討論] Maximizing assets(最大化財產)

看板Rangers作者mayfirst (2010AL冠軍遊騎兵)時間15年前 (2010/12/06 19:05)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

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Maximizing assets 最大化財產 The Texas Rangers are in much better financial shape going into this offseason than they were last year and are hoping to use their increased capabilities to keep the excitement building in the franchise. It’s not hard to squint your eyes just so and see how a good front office continuously putting a good product onto the field helps Chuck Greenberg work his marketing magic and turn the Texas Ranges into one of the more successful franchises in baseball, both on and off the field. It’s certainly what we are all hoping for. 遊騎兵段隊比去年的同時期有$$$多了，也可以讓球隊保住本季讓人驚艷的球員們。 However, they are not there yet. While last year’s team was able to make moves and get by on an extremely limited budget, players heading into arbitration and the impending free agency of several key players means that the Rangers have less flexibility than those who survived the ownership saga might have hoped for. It’s easy to see how this franchise could sustain a salary in the second tier (3-8) of MLB, but it’s also quite possible that they can’t capitalize on this momentum and stay in the middle tier in terms of payroll. Fortunately, baseball is at a point where it is possible to not only contend, but excel with a mid-tier salary. 看球隊在薪資總額牌再大聯盟第二等級(第3~8名)很容易，但作者認為今年遊騎兵隊很可能不會一口氣就把薪資總額衝到那麼高，可能在大聯盟球隊中段的薪資總額。 In order to compete with franchises that have more cash, the Rangers are going to have to make some unconventional moves. Last year’s team was built on the success of a reformed addict, starting pitcher cast away to Japan, and a reliever turned starter. After adding Yorvit Torrealba, the 2011 Rangers need to address DH/1B in addition to needing another starting pitcher and depth throughout. There are a number of options in Free Agency that could fill the DH/1B role, but perhaps the Rangers could address another glaring weakness at the same time: third base defense. 為了要和那些有雄厚$$$的球隊競爭，遊騎兵隊去年有一些讓人意想不到的動作:從日本簽來先發投手(Cobly Lewis)，另一位則是由後援轉先發(C.J. Wilson)。在補進Yorvit Torrealba之後，遊騎兵隊還需補強DH/1B和先發投手的位置。而自由球員市場上有很多選擇可以填補DH/1B的洞。但也許遊騎兵隊可以嘗試補強他們去年很明顯的弱點:三壘守備。 While it is true that Michael Young’s role as one of the faces of the franchise has resulted in increased expectations of performance, and much grumbling when those expectations aren’t met, he is not the replacement level player that many of us imagine him being in the emotional reaction to a strikeout. He has been a reliably (slightly) above league average hitter since 2003. His value as a hitter has ranged from 22.5 to 58.5 runs a year, settling in for a 35 run average. However, those who have hung around these parts for a while know that there is another critical issue with Michael Bryan Young: his defense. After (somewhat) graciously moving from short stop to third base, many, including myself, assumed that he would provide at least neutral defense and mainly hoped that he would be able to hit well enough to justify the move. 我們知道Michael Young是整個球隊的臉，也因為如此，我們對他的期待也越高。但是他 2010球季的表現並不符合期待。而他也非替補等級的球員，不必直接把他三振出局(屏除在球隊先發名單)。在2003年它的打擊略高於聯盟平均水準，他的價值在於打擊者可多替球隊帶來每年22.5到58.5紛，平均每年35分。然而更致命的問題:他的守備。自從把他從游擊大關移防到三壘防區，很多人，包刮他自己，希望他能提供至少平均水準的守備能力，也希望他在守備防區移動後能打的和之前一樣好。 2 years later and the hitting seems to be acceptable, while the defense has been below average. UZR often needs a large sample size than hitting statistics to mean anything significant, with 3 years being the rule of thumb. 2 years worth of poor UZR numbers and the anecdotal visual evidence give us enough data to suggest that Young is unlikely to be an even average defensive third basebmen next year. He had a UZR of -7.6 in 2009 and -5.4 in 2010. I think a reasonable projection for him for 2011, considering age and recent performance, would fall somewhere in the -5 to -10 range. This means that even another solid year at the plate next year would make him a league average (~2 WAR) player. And any decline, age-related or other… 經過兩年，他的打擊表現看起來可以接受，但是他的守備卻是低於聯盟平均。UZR通常需要大筆樣本來衡量，而兩年在UZR數據上貧乏的表現告訴我們Young明年防守能力不太可能達到聯盟平均(守備)水準。2009年UZR數據上是-7.6，2010年則是-5.4。我可以替2011年做合理的預測:大約是-5~-10的區間。這表示即使明年在打擊區上穩定的表現也只會讓他成為聯盟平均等級的球員(~2 WAR)。假如還加上退化話是其他因素的話... Addressing 3B defense is not the most pressing concern for the Rangers; however, addressing it appropriately could result in as big of an improvement as signing or trading for one of baseball’s elite talents. This is because the Rangers currently have an opening at DH/1B. Fortunately the team has enough good hitters that it doesn’t need to invest in the best hitters in free agency, but their location on the win curve means that every improvement is important. Moving Michael Young to 1B with Moreland becoming the backup 1B and getting more plate appearances in the DH role would result in a harsher positional defense penalty (-12.5 at 1B) for Young, but I have a feeling that he would likely end up with similar value defensively. Offensively, he would likely be somewhat below average compared the average MLB first baseman, but still have a better projection than the current Ranger first base options. 現在三壘防線不是遊騎兵隊最關心的問題。然而，交易或簽下市場上三壘守備達人可以帶給球隊莫大的幫助。更幸運的是，球隊現在DH/1B位置是空出來的。遊騎兵隊有足夠的打擊好手讓他們不需要在自由球員市場上頭銀彈在打擊好手上。而且他們每年的勝利曲線表示每個地方的進步都是很重要的。讓Michael Young移到一壘並且讓Moreland小弟成為替補。並且在DH位置上給Moreland小弟更多打擊機會會導致一壘防守上的漏洞。(一壘為-12.5) 但是我感覺到他也會帶來同樣守備價值(一樣低於聯盟平均就對了??囧)他在一壘的攻擊產值會低於聯盟平均但確是對遊騎兵來說更好的計畫。(MY:該不會2012要我蹲捕吧~~內野都守過了~~) Now, this move would only make sense if there was a good candidate to replace Michael Young. Enter Adrian Beltre. The perception of Beltre by those who doubt him seem to focus on his disproportionate success in contract years and his reputation as a player who gets injured a lot. While he has had some injuries, his only season in the past nine that resulted in him seeing less than 600 plate appearances was in 2009 for the Mariners when he only hit 477. The ‘contract year success’ seems to conveniently ignore how poorly he played in his last year for the Mariners, though that still resulted in a nice 2.5 WAR season (one of only 3 seasons under 3.0 WAR for him in the last 12 years). Additionally, his relatively mediocre hitting statistics during his time in Seattle become less worrisome when one sees his .340 wOBA away from Safeco and remembering that it also encompassed 2 of the worst years of his career. 現在三壘防區有一個很好的人選來替代MY的守備:Adrian Beltre，一個簽長約後會表現的很囧(但是合約年會打很好)而且容易受傷的球員。然而過去九季只有2009年在西雅圖水手隊時打席低於600個(477個)。而合約年打的超強的他會讓人忽略他在西雅圖水手時期打的多爛，但是他(2009年)的WAR仍有2.5。(過去12年只有3年WAR低於3.0)。而他在西雅圖時期客場wOBA高達.340。(Safeco球場表示:) Please note, I do not think that Adrian Beltre will hit as well as he did last year, where he flourished in moving from Seattle’s cavern to Boston’s more hitter-friendly confines to the tune of a .321/.365/.553 slashline, a. 390 wOBA and an All Star appearance. StatCorner had his park-adjusted wOBA* at a still excellent .384. Oddly enough, he hit better on the road than at home, with .403 and .375 wOBA’s, respectively. I think that it’s more likely that Beltre goes back to being the solid, above average hitter that he has been previously in his career while also rolling the dice that he has a couple more powerful years in the Texas heat. So why take on the risk of signing him? Quite simply: 對了，我並不認為Adrian Beltre會打的和今年在紅襪隊那麼好。(三圍.321/.365/.553+ 390 wOBA+入選全星星)。StatCorner也排除他因球場因素(紅襪主場是有名的芬威巨怪)，很奇怪的，他在客場打的比主場好。(客場wOBA.403，主場wOBA.375)我認為Beltre會成為一個很穩定，高於平均的打者，在遊騎兵主場的加持下會有幾年很火熱的表現。而為什麼要冒險簽下他呢?道理很簡單: Defense matters. 防守因素 Adrian Beltre’s UZR the past 3 years has been +11.0, +14.7, and +11.8. Most anecdotal reports confirm that he is an excellent defender and his two Gold Gloves certainly don’t hurt (though how much they help is a separate debate). Assuming health, most would feel comfortable projecting Beltre as a +10 UZR/year defender for the next couple of years. This is where Beltre’s value lies, value so great as to warrant moving Young across the diamond. As Young’s defense continues to decline, it seems likely that Beltre will be providing 15 to 20 runs better defense, or approaching 2 games, all while providing similar offense. Adrian Beltre的防守數據之一的"UZR"過去三年分別是+11.0,+14.7,+11.8。表示他是很棒的防守者，僅轉他只拿了兩座金手套。可以很合理的預測Beltre接下來幾年的UZR每年大約是+10。他在防守上的價值可以保證把Young由鑽石的一邊移向另一邊(三壘->一壘)。 Beltre的手套每年可以替球隊多省下15~20分~~ There is definitely some risk to pursuing Beltre. As a 31 year old player who is seeking a 4 or 5 year deal, signing involves taking on a player who is currently in his plateau phase to a contract that will likely involve some of his decline phase. However, he is a player who I would comfortably project in the 3-4 WAR range over the next 2-3 years, when the Rangers are likely to be at a critical point on the win curve. The great news for a team in the Rangers’ salary range is that since a significant portion of his value is derived from his defense (roughly one third), it is likely that he can be signed for a below-market or fair contract based on his projected performance rather than the highly inflated prices we’ve seen handed out already this offseason (yes, you, Jason Werth). Roughly projecting forward, it seems likely that Beltre will be worth somewhere in the neighborhood of 9-10 WAR over the next 3 years, 11-12 WAR over the next 4 years and 12-14 WAR over the next 5 years. It seems unwise to project 4 WAR seasons 3-4 years into the future for a player who is currently 31, though it can and does happen. While I would love to minimize risk and see him signed to the Rangers for 3 years, I think he will get 4 years, necessitating a contract in the 4 years/$60M range, possibly with an optional/vested 5th year bringing the total value up to $70M. 當然，追求Beltre也是有風險的。一個31歲年紀的球員正在尋求4~5年合約。簽合約本身都會包括他會退化的風險。但是，作者認為他可以很合理預測接下來2~3年Beltre的WAR範圍在3~4之間。另一個好消息的是通常守備好的選手在合約上很難真正看出他的價值。(容易被低估)。作者認為他可以簽低於市場平均或是合理的合約(根據他接下來可能的成績) ，且比簽下超級大肥約的球員來的好(對了，就是你!!Jason Werth)。 Beltre接下來三年的WAR大約在9-10之間。加下來四年WAR在11-12之間。接下來五年在12- 14左右。通常去預測一位只有31歲年紀的球員接下來3~4年每年有4WAR。但是，它是很可能發生的。我會願意降低風險，看見遊騎兵以4年/60M鎂簽下，或者加上第五年的選擇權，總價值達到70M鎂。(編按:作者別忘了Beltre的經紀人可是鼎鼎大名的Scott Boras...) In return, the Rangers would get a likely 3.5-4.0 WAR player for third base and improve first base production to an unsexy but steady level that has not been seen over the course of an entire season since Mark Teixeira left. It’ s hard to project what the total improvement would be because of the variance in Mitch Moreland’s future, but I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that this move could be a 5.0 WAR improvement to the team next year. In other words, it could be as significant as signing a certain pitcher everyone seems to be clamoring for endlesslee. 而遊騎兵三壘位置將得到每年3.5-4.0WAR數值的回饋，並且提升自Mark Teixeira離隊以來一壘的攻擊火力。而一壘部分WAR很難預測的原因是新人Mitch Moreland的不確定因素(他明年的表現的確很難預測...)。而作者並不肯定明年MY移防一壘，並簽下Beltre會帶來5.0 WAR的提升。換句話說，這比簽下一位投手帶給球隊的幫助來的更明顯。文章來源: http://www.bbtia.com/home/2010/12/6/maximizing-assets.html -- 2010 Texas Rangers Postseason Franchise Roster (SP)Cliff Lee (C)Benjie Molina (1B)Mitch Moreland (2B)Ian Kinsler (SS)Elvis Andrus (3B)Michael Young (LF)David Murphy (CF)Josh Hamilton (RF)Nelson Cruz (DH)Vladimir Guerrero (SP)C.J. Wilson (SP)Colby Lewis (CL)Neftali Feliz (RP)Darren O'Day (RP)Darren Oliver (SP)Derek Holland (RP)Alexi Ogando (RP)Michael Kirkman (C)Matt Treanor (OF)Julio Borbon -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 210.243.5.253