[討論] The Present Value of Prospects
Tomorrow Never Knows: The Present Value of Prospects and Why the Rangers Can
Afford to Trade From Depthu[m
Part 1: The Farm System as it stands now
While certainly a top 10 system in all of baseball, the Rangers can no longer
brag that their collection of talent resides in the rarified air of the top
tier. Thanks in part to the graduations of Neftali Feliz and Mitch Moreland,
the trading of Justin Smoak, Josh Lueke, Blake Beavan, Michael Main, and Omar
Poveda, the rapid decline of former prospects Kasey Kiker and Danny
Gutierrez, and the developmental hurdles encountered by top prospects Martin
Perez and Tanner Scheppers, the overall ranking of the Texas farm has taken a
hit, and the makeup of the system has shifted (somewhat) from high-impact
talent to depth. That’s not to say that the minor league system is void of
high-impact talent; rather, the farm’s value is more directly tied to depth
than in previous years.
由於上述(紅色底)新秀們的畢業&被交易&退步等等，我們的農場深度退到和前幾年差不多
。
Let’s take a closer look at what the Rangers currently have on the farm and
assign a basic trade value to each prospect (trade value based on a big
ticket return like Greinke, Johnson, etc). I’ll group the players into tiers
based on their present value, and give you some brief scouting breakdowns
like potential impact, attributes, and red flags. After we’ve established
value for the farm, I’ll make a case for why trading prospects for proven
major league talent makes sense for the Rangers at the present, and how that
could affect the shape of the system in the future.
如果要交易向像Greinke或是Johnson等級的人，作者將新秀分為數個等級。
Tier #1
LHP Martin Perez
Potential impact: Quality #2 starter on a first-division team.
Present value: Top 25 prospect in baseball; primary piece in a trade.
Attributes: Short athletic pitcher with compact delivery, above-average
command projection, and three pitches with plus potential. At present, his
fastball can sit 92-96 with good lefty movement; his curveball flashes plus
at times, and projects to be a 60 grade pitch at maturity; his changeup plays
well off his fastball with great shape and tumble, and projects to be
above-average with a chance to be well-above-average at peak.
Potential red flags: Lacks physical projection; struggled with command and
consistency in 2010; saw fastball velocity ebb and flow during season; the
unknowns associated with present age.
RHP Tanner Scheppers
Potential impact: Frontline closer
Present value: Top 50 prospect in baseball; primary piece in trade (although
would be secondary if grouped with Perez).
Attributes: Prototypical size and plus athleticism for pitcher. Arsenal
features a plus-plus fastball that can touch 99 and rarely dips below 94 mph,
even as a starter; plus curveball that I have seen graded as high as 70 on
the scouting scale; late-inning demeanor and competitive nature.
Potential red flags: Shoulder injury in 2008; age (will be 24 in 2011);
underdeveloped changeup that will limit potential as a starter; spotty
command.
Tier #2
OF Engel Beltre
Potential impact: First-division starter in centerfield
Present value: Top 100 prospect in baseball; secondary piece in a trade
Attributes: Projects to have above-average defensive tools at position, with
plus range, solid glove and a strong arm; plus speed; plus projections on the
hit tool, with excellent contact ability; swing mechanics and hit tool look
conducive for some power potential; above-average overall athleticism; faux
hawk and dynamic attire.
Potential red flags: Still transitioning from athlete with raw tools to
baseball player with on-the-field skills; lacks mature approach at the plate
and is overly aggressive; needs refinement with routes in centerfield; needs
overall maturity; has yet to produce at Double-A level.
SS Jurickson Profar
Potential Impact: First-division starter in the middle of the infield.
Present value: Top 100 prospect in baseball; secondary piece in trade.
Attributes: Plus-plus makeup; above-average defensive projections, with plus
arm, excellent glove, and sound fundamentals; hit tool projects to be
above-average from both sides of the plate; solid-average power potential;
overall polish and maturity to game.
Potential red flags: Age and experience level; has solid-average to plus
projections across the board, but lacks elite upside; some scouts question
his bat, suggesting he will struggle against full-season pitching; doesn’t
have much physical projection; lacks high-end speed.
Tier #3
LHP Robbie Erlin
Impact potential: Solid-average #3 starter
Present value: Fringe Top 100 Prospect in baseball; tertiary piece in trade
Attributes: Short athletic pitcher with smooth mechanics. Arsenal includes
three pitches that grade out solid-average or above; fastball thrown for
strikes in the 89-92 range with arm-side movement; curveball is
swing-and-miss pitch with excellent depth and vertical movement; changeup has
plus potential with deception and fade; maturity and approach beyond his
years; plus command/control; extremely positive statistical results in
full-season ball.
Potential red flags: Lacks plus fastball velocity; lacks physical projection;
has yet to face advanced hitters; overall maturity of arsenal doesn’t leave
much to dream on or project.
LHP Michael Kirkman
Potential impact: #4 starter; second-tier setup man
Present value: Top 10 in Rangers system; tertiary piece in trade
Attributes: Plus fastball velocity, sitting in the low 90s but can touch 95
in short bursts; plus potential slider that plays well off fastball and has
good tilt; once-promising curveball flashes potential and could become second
above-average secondary pitch; excellent size and sound mechanics; major
league experience and success.
Potential red flags: Spotty command at present and lacks above-average
projection; changeup is underdeveloped with average future grades; lacks true
wipeout pitch; lacks high-impact upside.
SS Luis Sardinas
Potential impact: First-division starter at shortstop
Present value: Top 10 in Rangers system; tertiary player in trade.
Attributes: Plus defensive projections, with strong arm, slick glove, and
excellent range; solid-average projection on hit tool, with contact ability
and potential to develop gap-to-gap power; Plus speed, with first-step
quickness that should allow for stolen bases; plus makeup with strong work
ethic and desire to improve.
Potential red flags: Body at present is awkward, and physical projection (as
far as strength goes) is limited; doesn’t have much power projection; swing
more conducive for contact and slap approach; because of body, speed on the
field is inconsistent; some durability concerns; development will take time.
RHP Wilmer Font*
Impact potential: Frontline set-up man; second-tier closer
Present value: On 40-man roster; limited because of TJ; tertiary piece in
trade.
Attributes: Electric fastball that will sit 92-96 in the rotation and touch
99 in short relief busts; changeup has plus potential and started to develop
in 2010, showing good fading action and deception out of hand; tall with long
arms, that give him ability to create angle to arsenal; youth.
Potential red flags: Underwent Tommy John surgery last month; underdeveloped
curveball that looks more like a slurve because of insufficient arm-speed;
lacks above-average command projection; struggles with pacing and pitch
sequencing; inconsistent mechanics.
*Font, despite being on the shelf thanks to TJ surgery, and not falling in my
overall top 10 (should I decide to rank the prospects in that manner), slots
into the third tier in terms of value, which might seem confusing. The
reasons: Font’s relatively young age coupled with the fact that before his
injury, his fastball was a legit 70 grade pitch that showed 80 grade
potential in short bursts out the pen. His command was spotty and his
secondary pitches inconsistent, but he can throw serious flamethrower smoke,
and that will always have value.
LHP Miguel de los Santos
Impact potential: Late-innings reliever on second division team
Present value: Top 10 in the Rangers system; on 40-man roster; tertiary
player in trade
Attributes: Plus fastball velocity that can touch higher in bursts; plus
changeup that offers deception and tumbling action; curveball that has
above-average potential with big break; can miss bats with all three pitches;
mature approach to the mound.
Potential red flags: Only 38 innings in full-season ball; lacks above-average
control, and often displays below-average command; curveball is inconsistent
and lost development due to underutilization in ’10; physically mature
without much additional projection.
RHP Fabio Castillo
Impact potential: Late-innings reliever on second-division team
Present value: On 40-man roster; could end up in top 10 in Rangers system;
tertiary piece in trade.
Attributes: Fastball that sits in the 93-97 range, with late life and weight;
hard slider thrown in the mid-upper 80s with tilt that misses bats and plays
well off fastball. Hard to make solid-contact against; late-inning demeanor.
Potential red flags: Lacks deep arsenal; doesn’t have plus command;
struggles with overall control; limited professional success; has yet to show
ability to get Double-A hitters out; mechanics that not only affect command
potential, but could lead to arm injury.
Tier #4
3B Mike Olt
Impact potential: First-division starter at third base
Present value: Top ten in Rangers system; 2010 Draftee (ineligible for direct
inclusion in trade)
Attributes: Above-average defensive projections at third, with strong arm and
above-average glove; bat has potential, with above-average bat speed and a
sound approach; plus raw strength and power potential; good makeup and work
ethic.
Potential red flags: Despite sound approach and bat speed, his hit tool lacks
impact projection, and some scouts question his contact ability going
forward; lacks speed; 22 years-old and yet to play full-season ball, so
questions about competition level exist.
RHP Joseph Wieland
Impact potential: Solid-average #3/4 starter
Present value: Top 10 in Rangers system (underrated prospect); quaternary
player in trade.
Attributes: Projects as innings-eating workhouse, thanks to sound mechanics
and durable frame. Fastball sits in the low 90su[m, but can touch 94 with some
movement; plus potential curveball with depth and sharp vertical break;
excellent present control with above-average command potential; advanced
pitchability, with feel for sequence and situation.
Potential red flags: Lacks elite stuff; changeup will flash average at times,
but remains inconsistent; lacks wow factor, and some scouts already placed
him in command/control box; gives up too many hits.
RHP Matt Thompson
Impact potential: Solid-average #3/4 starter
Present value: Top 15 in Rangers system (underrated prospect); quaternary
player in trade.
Attributes: Prototypical size and strength for a starter; fastball thrown in
the 90-92 range, but can touch higher in short-burstsu[m; curveball is plus
allows for plus control/command projection; intelligent pitcher with feel for
craft.
Potential red flags: Lacks elite fastball velocity and the pitch is straight;
changeup has some potential because of repeatable delivery, but is currently
fringe-average; gives up way too many hits.
*In Part 2, I’ll break down the remaining players in Tier #4, list some of
the players that make up Tier #5 (too many to breakdown), and explain why I
think trading prospects for proven major league talent makes sense given the
current state of the farm, and how this could all affect the state of the
farm in the future.
資料來源:BBTIA(Baseball Time In Arlington)
http://www.bbtia.com/
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2010 Texas Rangers Postseason Franchise Roster
(SP)Cliff Lee (C)Benjie Molina (1B)Mitch Moreland (2B)Ian Kinsler
(SS)Elvis Andrus (3B)Michael Young (LF)David Murphy (CF)Josh Hamilton
(RF)Nelson Cruz (DH)Vladimir Guerrero (SP)C.J. Wilson (SP)Colby Lewis
(CL)Neftali Feliz (RP)Darren O'Day (RP)Darren Oliver (SP)Derek Holland
(RP)Alexi Ogando (RP)Michael Kirkman (C)Matt Treanor (OF)Julio Borbon
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