[討論] Why the Rangers Can Afford To Trade From Depth
Tomorrow Never Knows, Part 2: Why the Rangers Can Afford To Trade From Depth
Rather than devote another 1700 words to the players grouped in the
quaternary and quinary levels of this particular value exercise (obviously, a
package for a Josh Johnson or Zach Greinke sets the bar high, so the value
levels I established are specific to that), I’ll just throw out a list of
some of the prospects that could not only offer value in a trade, but could
jump several tiers in the next calendar year.
LHP Robbie Ross: He could stick in a rotation long-term, but he might prove
to be a better fit as a reliever, with a bowling bowl fastball and the
makings of a major league slider. If he can find success in Double-A, his
value will tick up a bit, although his ceiling isn’t as high as his draft
status might suggest.
RHP Omar Beltre: Lots of versatility with Beltre, who will play much better
in the bullpen, but has the arsenal to function in the rotation. He has a
plus fastball with some late life that he pairs with a slider and a splitter.
In talking with people from other organizations about this article, several
mentioned Beltre as a player with value. He should log innings in the Rangers
pen next season, and he has the stuff to stick around.
Miguel Velazquez: After reemerging last season as a prospect, Velazquez
failed to advance his status in ’10. That said, he still has value, and the
tools are very enticing. While not an upper-echelon five-tool talent, he does
have all five raw tools, and he still has time to put it together on the
field. The clock is ticking, so 2011 is the year it needs to happen.
Jorge Alfaro: Super young, super raw, and super talented, Alfaro is the
player who can make the biggest tier jump in the Rangers system. Because of
his high ceiling and his lofty sticker price, the 17 year-old Colombian
catcher would make an attractive kicker in any deal. But if he can show some
tool-translation on-the-field, Alfaro can launch into top prospect status in
short order.
This could reach Pynchonian levels if I continued, but you get the point. The
list is very long, and very promising, and with the exception of Olt, I didn’
t even profile some of the more intersting 2010 draftees, like Luke Jackson,
Jake Skole, and Cody Buckel. I profiled Jorge Alfaro, but I didn’t profile
some of the other high-ceiling Latin Americans in the low-levels of the
system, like RHP David Perez or shortstop Hanser Alberto, who will be names
to pay close attention to in the coming years. I didn’t profile Chad Bell,
Neil Ramirez, Jake Brigham, Randol Rojas, or Tommy Mendonca, or 25 other
players that help make up the depth of the system. Again, you get the point.
The system might lack a crowded primary and secondary tier grouping, but the
overall value of the farm is tied to the depth, and given the abundance of
talent contained within, the value will continue to increase, regardless of
how many pieces are used as trade collateral. More on that in a minute.
Before I make the case why trading prospects for proven major league talent
makes sense for the Rangers, let’s first take a look at the landscape of the
25-man roster, and why the window to compete with the current collection of
talent is shrinking. On the surface, the upstart American League Champions
appear to have a roster heavy on the side of youth (service time;
on-the-field exuberance; Elvis’s sweet smile), with pundits often using that
perception to place them in the AL West’s driver seat for the next decade.
While a decade of sustainable success is entirely possible, the error in the
perception is that the Rangers are a team with a young core of talent, and
that the 2010 success is just another step towards their eventual ascension
to baseball greatness. I think it’s a stretch to assume either is true.
Without busting out a spreadsheet or making this more complicated than it
needs to be, let’s just ask a few straight-forward questions about the
Rangers going forward, and see where we stand when the smoke settles.
1) Do you feel confident that 30 year-old CJ Wilson and 31 year-old Colby
Lewis can duplicate (or even build upon) their impressive 2010 campaigns and
form a one-two punch at the top of the rotation? How confident? Are they
really top-of-the-rotation material?
2) If you assume that Kinsler (29), Cruz (30), and Hamilton (29) have already
entered their peak performance years, how many years until they start their
eventual decline? Is two years overly conservative or realistic?
3) Is there anybody in the farm system not named Scheppers that you think can
provide high-impact value to the 25-man roster over the next two seasons?
4) Speaking of youth, how confident are you in the Hunter/Holland duo, and do
you think they can solidify the middle of the Rangers rotation in 2011?
5) Given the current landscape of the American League West, do you think the
division is more likely to be competitive in 2011?
My answers to the above questions don’t exactly fill me with confidence
going into the 2011 season, much less the next decade. The Rangers, as they
are presently constructed, have an expiration date; sometime in the next
three seasons. But the product could start to spoil before that point, and
even with an overly optimistic approach to prospect prognostication, it’s a
stretch to assume the Rangers high-impact minor league talent will actualize
and provide high-impact major league production in that window. Look, I
really like the players in question (Scheppers, Perez, Beltre) and I’m
telling you that it will be highly unlikely if one of the prospects near
their ceiling in that window, much less all three.
To reintroduce the main theme of the piece: “Tomorrow Never Knows.” A
rather profound malapropism from the mind of Ringo Starr, but this is how you
have to look at prospects. They are merely abstract dreams that very rarely
manifest into reality. They are wonderful things to cultivate, but falling in
love with the dream of a player can often limit the range of possibilities at
the major league squad. When you’ve had a taste of the spotlight (when the
fans have had a taste of the spotlight), and you have a core of talent that
puts you on the cusp of contention, you have to aggressively maximize the
potential of the opportunity.
Here’s the plan: Every player in baseball has a price. Not every price is
affordable, or even remotely reasonable, but the price exists, nonetheless.
My point is, a player doesn’t have to be “on-the-block” to be a target,
and if the Rangers are serious about acquiring a top of the rotation pitcher
(relative, of course), said player can acquired. I’m not advocating for a
foolish move; rather, suggesting if the Rangers wanted to make a splash, the
requisite water resides in their system. Obviously, teams aren’t lining up
to sell their future, so the opportunity would have to embrace both parties
involved.
What if the Rays decided to trade Price? Not suggesting they are, but what if
their ears were open? What if the Marlins were dead-set on building around
Johnson, but were willing to listen to a proposal? Would you cash-in for a
player like that? Would you be willing to trade the all impact prospects of
the future to maximize the present? This is academic, but it proposes an
interesting question: Are you willing to do whatever it takes to win now?
Here’s the reality: The Rangers could bring in a player of the Garza ilk; a
mid-rotation arm that might cost a bit too much in prospect treasure, but
gives you quality at the major league level. Given the above thesis, is it
fair to say that acquiring a mid-rotation starter (conceptual at this point,
but just go with it), regardless of the inflated price, gives the Rangers a
better opportunity to compete in the aforementioned two-three year window?
The answer is yes. But will it hurt the farm? “The Rangers can’t throw away
the future.” I disagree. Here’s why.
This is simple. The Rangers obviously have a competent scouting team in
place. They have an established presence in Latin America (read: flags in the
ground). They have a new ownership group in place that is willing to spend
for talent. That’s a recipe for a sustainable farm system. Period. The
Rangers system is primarily built on depth, but a sizeable percentage of that
depth consists of high-quality talent. This is an important fact to remember.
Players that currently reside in the quaternary column could easily emerge at
a higher tier as their development continues. High-impact prospects like
Alfaro or Sardinas could take steps forward and start to actualize. With a
penchant for up-the-middle talent, the Rangers continue to acquire players
with lofty projections and enticing trade values.
Basically, the pipeline is full, and will remain full going forward (the
Rangers have excellent position in the deep 2011 draft, and an established
relationship with the equally strong July 2nd market). The days of
penny-pinching are over. Do you really think the current Rangers ownership
would allow a talent like Purke to slip away? It’s a new day. Treat it
accordingly. Do whatever it takes to win now. The farm will survive.
資料來源:Baseball Time In Arlington
http://www.bbtia.com/home/2010/12/20/tomorrow-never-knows-part-2-why-the-
rangers-can-afford-to-tr.html
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2010 Texas Rangers Postseason Franchise Roster
(SP)Cliff Lee (C)Benjie Molina (1B)Mitch Moreland (2B)Ian Kinsler
(SS)Elvis Andrus (3B)Michael Young (LF)David Murphy (CF)Josh Hamilton
(RF)Nelson Cruz (DH)Vladimir Guerrero (SP)C.J. Wilson (SP)Colby Lewis
(CL)Neftali Feliz (RP)Darren O'Day (RP)Darren Oliver (SP)Derek Holland
(RP)Alexi Ogando (RP)Michael Kirkman (C)Matt Treanor (OF)Julio Borbon
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