[討論] The Brandon Webb Kerfuffle
The Brandon Webb Kerfuffle
Let's go ahead and face it: people love getting a good deal and, to take that
a step further, also love the mere thought of getting a good deal. They also
love the thought of their favorite sports team getting a good deal, and it is
for that reason that I believe there is a strange sort of positive connotation
attached to the phrase "low-risk, high-reward signing." After all,
such a phrase implies some probability -- however minimal it may be --
that the signee could produce significant value at a below-market salary, yet
still be readily disposable in the event that his performance fails to pass
the necessary tests. People love the idea of getting something for less than
its actual worth.
And so it is that the Rangers' dalliance with free-agent right-hander Brandon
Webb is drawing a fair amount of attention, mostly of the positive variety,
with Texas reportedly attempting to hammer out a deal with the one-time Cy
Young Award winner (and two-time runner-up); as of early Tuesday afternoon,
Webb was scheduled to speak to manager Ron Washington and pitching coach Mike
Maddux, and is believed to want to pitch for Texas (though reportedly not for
a lengthier period of time than one season). Given the rough contract
parameters that Webb is seeking, one could reasonably conclude that he will
command a base salary of $4-5 million in 2011, with innings-based incentives
that could vault his total compensation beyond $10-11 million.
What renders the term "low-risk signing" something of a misnomer is that
every signing carries at least moderate risk if there's any chance of the
player being used improperly; sticking by an ineffective player for an
excessive period of time can have deletrious effects, particularly if there
are potentially better options available, and we've seen instances of this in
Texas from time to time. Furthermore, one must also consider the chances of
actually unlocking the "high-reward" component -- sure, Webb could replicate
his pre-injury form and post a four-plus-win season, but if the probability
of such an event is only 5-10 percent, how much emphasis should we really
place on the upside?
Notwithstanding the fact that Webb's surgeon is conveniently also the
Rangers' team physician (and has green-lit Webb's return to pitching after a
two-year layoff), pitchers coming off shoulder injuries -- or any serious
injuries at all, really -- are generally poor bets to produce satisfying
value; this was particularly true in 2010 (although Rich Harden's inclusion
in this list of pitchers is questionable). There are exceptions, of course,
and I suspect these are what will engender hope for Webb: Jimmy Key, Orel
Hershiser, and Bret Saberhagen. Each of these three veteran hurlers
successfully returned from shoulder problems to log at least two more solid
seasons before career expiration, and all three were comfortably above
average performance-wise (like Webb) before succumbing to season-ending
shoulder issues.
Beyond that ray of promise, however, there is little else on a historical
level that augurs Webb's successful comeback, as there are countless numbers
of pitchers who couldn't pull it off, or actually did pull it off in terms of
returning to the majors, but heavily underwhelmed in Year One (Ben Sheets).
Even good medical reports for Webb likely render him a coin flip, at very
best, and even if he manages to avert further health-related setbacks in
2011, there are enough things that could go wrong and subvert his
effectiveness that you really can't lean too optimistic on his median
projection, let alone project with much confidence. Perhaps 110-120 innings
of league-average baseball, with the understanding that he might be much
better but will more likely be worse? I really don't know.
I'm not saying that signing Webb is a bad idea, of course. What I am saying
is that it's not going to be enough on its own to supplement the starting
rotation, given the abundant uncertainty, and that in the event Texas
actually finalizes a deal with Webb, we should be careful not to be seduced
by the inevitable labeling of Webb's next contract as a "value" signing, a
"low-risk, high-reward" signing, or any of the rest of it.
資料來源:Baseball Time In Arlington
http://www.bbtia.com/
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2010 Texas Rangers Postseason Franchise Roster
(SP)Cliff Lee (C)Benjie Molina (1B)Mitch Moreland (2B)Ian Kinsler
(SS)Elvis Andrus (3B)Michael Young (LF)David Murphy (CF)Josh Hamilton
(RF)Nelson Cruz (DH)Vladimir Guerrero (SP)C.J. Wilson (SP)Colby Lewis
(CL)Neftali Feliz (RP)Darren O'Day (RP)Darren Oliver (SP)Derek Holland
(RP)Alexi Ogando (RP)Michael Kirkman (C)Matt Treanor (OF)Julio Borbon
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