[外絮] A Brief Statistical Appreciation of …

看板RayAllen作者rayensighner (瓶子不是這樣看低)時間16年前 (2009/08/01 13:25)推噓7(7推 0噓 0→)

留言7則, 7人參與討論串1/1

來源：http://tinyurl.com/l4l6t4 Ray Allen’s $19 million expiring deal generated a lot of chatter over whether the C’s should trade him, and it certainly appears they tried. I’m not here to tell you that’s a bad thing. It’s good to have a proactive general manager, and it’s true that Ray Allen is 34 with past ankle problems. But here’s the thing about trading Ray Allen: It would mean a huge adjustment to the C’s offense, because there are very few players in the league who can shoot three-pointers as often and as accurately as Ray. Defenders have to be constantly vigilant, and that vigilance creates space for the other four players to operate. The current roster has no player like him. Paul Pierce can shoot threes, but his come in transition or in those random moments where he finds himself with a few feet of space in the flow of the offense. Pierce rarely shoots threes by design. Eddie House can shoot ‘ em with anybody, but he’s rarely going to play even 20 minutes in a big game. 雷槍的19M到期合約讓大家產生了一堆想法，要交易他。我在這不是要跟你講這是一件壞事情。這是一件好事對於球隊擁有一個前瞻性的經理，而且確實雷槍也已經34歲加上有著傷病。但是關於交易雷槍有些事情要考慮到：這對於超塞的進攻方面要大大地改變，因為聯盟中很少有像雷槍一樣，常常投三分而且很準很準的球員。防守者必須要隨時嚴防雷槍，而這也讓其他四名球員有更多的空檔機會。而超塞的球員名單中並沒有像他這樣的球員。 PP可以丟三分，但是他也常常是會以較靠近籃框的距離攻擊。PP很少對他設計三分戰術。房子可以丟三分，但是他在大比賽中很少能打上20分鐘。 Ray will play 40. And he’s a very, very unique weapon. How unique? Only 15 players in the history of the NBA have hit at least 40 percent of their three-pointers in a season in which they attempted at least six threes per game and played enough to qualify for the scoring title–and they’ve combined to do that in just 19 individual seasons, according to Basketball Reference. 雷槍會打到40歲。而且他是個非常特別的武器，有多特別呢？在歷史上只有15個球員在一季內一場投至少6顆三分球而且保有至少4成以上的命中率，而且打得時間也不算少。這種表現出現在賽季也總共只有19次。 Here are the top 11 seasons, ranked in order of best three-point shooting percentage. (Why 11? Because Ray’s 2008-09 season was the 11th-best). 這裡有前11名的三分命中率排名(為何排到11名？因為雷槍的08-09年就是第11名) ┌─┬────────┬──────┬──┬─┬──┬──┬──┬──┬──┐ │RK│Player │Season │Ag│Team│G │MP │FG │FGA │3P │3PA │ ├─┼────────┼────┼─┼──┼─┼──┼──┼──┼──┼──┤ │1 │Peja Stojakovic │2007-08 │30│NOH │77│2711│451 │1026│231 │524 │ ├─┼────────┼────┼─┼──┼─┼──┼──┼──┼──┼──┤ │2 │Mitch Richmond │1995-96 │30│SAC │81│2946│611 │1369│225 │515 │ ├─┼────────┼────┼─┼──┼─┼──┼──┼──┼──┼──┤ │3 │Ray Allen │2001-02 │26│MIL │69│2525│530 │1148│229 │528 │ ├─┼────────┼────┼─┼──┼─┼──┼──┼──┼──┼──┤ │4 │Peja Stojakovic │2003-04 │26│SAC │81│3264│665 │1386│240 │554 │ ├─┼────────┼────┼─┼──┼─┼──┼──┼──┼──┼──┤ │5 │Damon Jones │2004-05 │28│MIA │82│2576│331 │ 726│225 │521 │ ├─┼────────┼────┼─┼──┼─┼──┼──┼──┼──┼──┤ │6 │Reggie Miller │1996-97 │31│IND │81│2966│552 │1244│229 │536 │ ├─┼────────┼────┼─┼──┼─┼──┼──┼──┼──┼──┤ │7 │Dennis Scott │1995-96 │27│ORL │82│3041│491 │1117│267 │628 │ ├─┼────────┼────┼─┼──┼─┼──┼──┼──┼──┼──┤ │8 │Voshon Lenard │1996-97 │23│MIA │73│2111│314 │ 684│183 │442 │ ├─┼────────┼────┼─┼──┼─┼──┼──┼──┼──┼──┤ │9 │Raja Bell │2006-07 │30│PHO │78│2917│410 │ 950│205 │496 │ ├─┼────────┼────┼─┼──┼─┼──┼──┼──┼──┼──┤ │10│Ray Allen │2005-06 │30│SEA │78│3022│681 │1500│269 │653 │ ├─┼────────┼────┼─┼──┼─┼──┼──┼──┼──┼──┤ │11│Ray Allen │2008-09 │33│BOS │79│2876│499 │1040│199 │486 │ └─┴────────┴────┴─┴──┴─┴──┴──┴──┴──┴──┘ Ray did that last year, and he’s done it three times in his career–more than anyone else in the history of the NBA. Peja Stojakovic and Rashard Lewis have done it twice. No one else has made the cut more the once. Reggie Miller –once. Paul Pierce–once. Dennis Scott–once. 雷槍去年就做到了，而且他在他的生涯有三次，在NBA歷史上排第一。Peja以及Lewis 都曾經達成過兩次。神米一次，PP一次、Dennis Scott一次。 The list of players grows if you loosen the criteria a bit, but that only reinforces Allen’s rarity as a shooter. If you lower the minutes-played requirement to include all players who qualified for the three-point shooting title, you get 46 individual seasons. If you lower the minutes requirement even further by including players who launched six threes per 36 minutes (instead of per game), you get 61 individual seasons–the equivalent of about two guys per season. 這份名單要是忽略某些項目，可能名單上的人會更多，但那只會加深雷槍是個極罕見的射手的印象。 (Side note: If Simmons can be the Picasso of the Trade Machine, can I be the Rembrandt of the Basketball Reference Full Court function? Give me something). Having a high-volume three-point shooter who can actually shoot has a dramatic effect on a team’s offense. Jon Nichols studied this for point guards recently, and found that a high-percentage, high-volume shooter at the PG spot sends an offense into the historically-elite stratosphere. An offense with that sort of PG significantly out-performs even an offense with an accurate shooter who doesn’t shoot as much, according to Nichols’ preliminary numbers. 雷槍是個有著大量三分的射手，而且可以靠三分對球隊的進攻有明顯的效益。Jon Nichols最近對於控衛有著這樣的研究，以及發現當控衛是個高命中率、大量的射手會在歷史上留下名字。而當一個控衛雖然很準但卻沒有出手很多，則就顯得比較黯淡。 The effect for shooting guards probably isn’t as statistically significant, since there are more good three-point shooters among two guards than PGs. 得分後衛可能在shooting方面的影響沒法在數據上有顯著的差別，因為有比較多的三分射手都是雙能衛。 Still, when I thought about trading Ray Allen for Tyreke Evans or trading a Ray-Rondo package for Prince-Hamilton-Stuckey, my first thought was always: How are we going to replace the three-point shooting? Because the offense would look an awful lot different without it. 最後，每次當我想到要交易雷槍或是雷槍+軟豆，我的第一個想法總是：我們的三分怎辦？因為我們的進攻要是少了雷槍，怎麼看都會弱化很多。 PS.)這篇翻譯不太好得地方就請見諒了。 -- ███ ███ █ █ ███ ██▎ ███ ██ █▂▂ █▎█ ██▎ ███ █▆▂ █▆█ ▍█▋ ██▆ ▊█▎ █▆▆ ██ █▂█ ███ ▊█▎ ██▆ █▊█ █▂█ ▍█▋ ██▆ ▊██ ▆▆█ ██ ███ █▎█ ▊██ ██▆ R by ωaterζantasy -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.141.32.122