[Note] Five questions: Tampa Bay Rays

看板Rays作者knoxvillt (胖胖)時間14年前 (2010/04/07 13:39)推噓9(9推 0噓 22→)

留言31則, 7人參與討論串1/1

What wacky lineups will Joe Maddon produce? 西瓜將會怎樣排出令人驚奇的"創意"打線勒??? As of this writing, the projected 25-man roster features Ben Zobrist, B.J. Upton, Sean Rodriguez and Willy Aybar. With the exception of Aybar, the quartet shares a common positional genesis at shortstop, so it should be no surprise that versatility is in high supply. 在預計25人名單中值得注意的有Ben Zobrist、B.J. Upton、Sean Rodriguez和 Willy Aybar。除了Aybar之外，其他人都可以守游擊這個位置，有這麼多人可以靈活調度所以應該沒有突發狀況造成調度困擾。 Zobrist has 130 major league appearances at shortstop, 99 at second base and 89 in the outfield (he actually appeared at every position except catcher and pitcher last season). Zobrist在MLB守備130場的游擊、99場2壘和89場外野(在上個球季能在投手和捕手以外的位置確實的做好守備工作。) Upton has more than 350 starts in center field, but also 63 appearances at third base, 48 at second and 16 at short. When Jason Bartlett suffered an injury last season, Upton actually took grounders at shortstop just in case. Aybar is being restricted to third and first base this season, but has taken reps at short and second for the Rays and Rodriguez is essentially the new Zobrist. Upton在中外野守備超過350場先發，不僅如此，3壘也有63場、48場2壘和16場游擊守備經驗，假使Jason Bartlett再像上一季受傷，Upton也可以客串守游擊守備。Aybar 本季原則上只會守備1壘和3壘，但他也能守備2遊，Rodriguez在守備上就像是第2個 Zobrist一樣(註1)。註1：作者這裡應該是想表達他們同為工具人 Having four players with the capability to play, well, everywhere provides a ridiculous amount of flexibility for Maddon. Factor in that the Rays have a number of platoon-heavy hitters and things are going to be in constant flux. If Hank Blalock somehow makes the roster, there’s a chance the Rays could produce this lineup versus righties (career wOBA versus righties): 擁有這4個有能力的球員可以同時上場，好吧，這就像擁有一手強到誇張的好牌給西瓜調度使用，原因就在於Rays有一群好打者且他們的能力都漸趨穩定。如果把Blalock放入球員名單，閃光打線在面對右投時能有更多機會(以生涯面對右投的wOBA)： C Dioner Navarro (.334) 1B Carlos Pena (.382) 2B Ben Zobrist (.335) 3B Evan Longoria (.377) SS Jason Bartlett (.310) LF Carl Crawford (.345) CF B.J. Upton (.332) RF Matt Joyce (.357; 小樣本數據) DH Hank Blalock (.362) 然後以另一份打線名單去面對左投(以生涯面對左投的wOBA)： C Kelly Shoppach (.419) 1B Carlos Pena (.333) 2B Sean Rodriguez (.289; 小樣本數據) 3B Evan Longoria (.364) SS Jason Bartlett (.372) LF Carl Crawford (.307) CF B.J. Upton (.343) RF Ben Zobrist (.366) DH Pat Burrell (.389) That's four changes and without taking Aybar and his switch-hitting ability or Gabe Kapler and his .363 wOBA versus lefties into account. That's also assuming the southpaw hitting Reid Brignac isn't around and, 我們看到這裡有4個位置做了更動，而沒有把Aybar(兩打)或是Kapler(左殺，生涯面對左投有.363 wOBA)考慮進去，同樣地也沒考慮到Reid Brignac(左打)。 well, you get the point. This club is deeper and more complex than a painting by M.C. Escher. Maddon is no stranger to mixing and matching either. During his four years with the Rays, he's used 125, 100, 100 and 93 different lineups. 好的，這樣你抓到重點了嗎？這個球隊甚至比M.C.Escher的規劃還有深度而且更複雜。西瓜並不陌生如何去混合和調配它，他在Rays的4年間，總共使用了125、100、100和 93種不同的打線。 How many innings for Rafael Soriano? 要給Rafael Soriano設定多少的救援局數呢？ Team owner Stuart Sternberg and the acquisition of Soriano have produced some quality quotations. Before the offseason began, Sternberg said something to the ilk of, "There aren't any $7 million closers coming here." To which Andrew Friedman, who runs the baseball operations, said, "Hey, about that." 球隊老闆Stuart Sternberg在獲得能穩定守住比賽勝利的Soriano之前發生過一段小插曲，這是在去年球季結束之後的事情，老闆對Friedman嘴砲說出"球隊是不會出現超過年薪$7M的終結者"，不過是誰真正在維持球團的事務運作呢？ "嘿!!! 就像現在發生的事情那樣"，這就是我想要說的。 Now the Rays did not pursue or acquire Soriano because he's a closer, but more because he's a good pitcher. Nevertheless, Sternberg said the Rays intend to have a little fun with their shiny bullpen toy, which raises the question: How thin is the line between an efficient workload and abusing the arm? Fingernail thin when that arm is under contract for only one season and that one season is the most important in team history. Rays不只是因為Soriano是一個專職的終結者而需要他(註2)，但更多理由是因為他是位優質投手。無論如何，老闆說他打算為牛棚帶來一些令他們高興且能穩定牛棚信心的事情，這邊點出了一個問題：如何能為薄弱的牛棚創造出一個有效率的使用量又不會濫用呢？讓Soriano在光芒僅有的一個球季，為球隊帶來重要的貢獻。註2：Rays從08年季末Troy Percival受傷到09年球季結束，就沒有一個專職終結者負責在比賽後段替球隊守住勝利。這段期間，西瓜將牛棚組成救援委員會，每場比賽幾乎都有不同的中繼投手負責關門。 The 30-year-old Soriano posted a career high in appearances and innings last season, which suggests that the Braves' Frank Wren and Bobby Cox intended to stretch the boundaries as well. Throughout Soriano's career, he's been death to righties (.520 OPS against) and an irritating annoyance to lefties (.707 OPS), which means calling upon him to face batters of either hand is no issue. 現年30歲的Soriano在上個球季創造出了他的生涯年，讓勇士的GM Frank Wren 和總教頭Bobby Cox也想看看他的極限在哪邊(註3)，綜觀他的生涯，對右打者相當有壓制力但對上左打者則較為不利(面對右打OPS.520 左打OPS.707)，依照這樣的成績來看，球隊可以讓他同時面對左右打者應該不會有太大問題的。註3：Soriano的傷病史還算蠻豐富的，但是最嚴重的一次是在08年，那年因為受傷的緣故，幾乎整季報銷。這邊要感謝虎喵大提供勇士的運作情形，讓我能了解作者想要表達的意思。 Soriano figures to rack up something like 30-35 saves in 2010. Of those with at least 30 saves in 2009, only Jonathan Broxton and Fernando Rodney pitched at least twice as many innings as they had saves. Soriano在2010球季應該可以成功救援30至35次，在09年球季至少有30次救援點的投手中，只有Jonathan Broxton和Fernando Rodney的局數是救援點的兩倍以上。 Brian Fuentes was the low man, with 1.1 innings per save, and the average of the group was 1.7. Expect Soriano's innings per save ratio to be higher than Troy Percival's in 2008 (1.6) but lower than J.P. Howell’s in 2009 (3.9). Brian Fuentes是個短局數的救援投手，平均每1.1局獲得一次救援點，聯盟裡平均獲得救援點為每1.7局1次，可以合理期待Soriano獲得救援點的平均救援局數會高於08年的Troy Percival(1.6局1次)但會低於09年的J.P. Howell(3.9局1次)。 The risk the Rays run is that Soriano's arm will give out. He has a history of arm injuries and one caused him to miss most of 2008. Under Maddon's watch the Rays have never had a reliever top 90 innings (Howell came awfully close in 2008 though, literally outs away). Rays在使用Soriano將會伴隨著風險產生，在他的傷病史裡因為手臂受傷而使得08年球季幾乎快要整季缺陣，在西瓜的看管下，Rays使用RP從未超過90局(雖然08年的Howell 和這個數字幾乎相去不遠，註4) 註4: J.P. Howell在08年的投球局數為89.1局 How Maddon balances Soriano's duties as the Rays'harbinger of finality will be something to watch for, if only to see what the Rays'definition of fun is. 隨著Maddon如何適當的使用Soriano，光芒的未來是被看好的。只要好好觀賞Rays的比賽所帶來的樂趣吧。 Will the Rays trade Carl Crawford or Carlos Pena? Rays會將Carl Crawford或是Carlos Pena?交易出去嗎？ The last time the Rays dealt with relevant players nearing the end of their contracts, they chose against the draft picks and took the security of choosing the prospects. Such efforts netted them a mixed bag of results. Rays處理最近一次關於合約快要結束的球員，球團選擇針對選秀順位和較有保障的新秀，就結果來說還算不錯。 In 2006, they dealt relievers Danys Baez and Lance Carter to the Dodgers for starting prospects Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany. (Jackson was later traded for Matt Joyce.) A few months later they finished the job, moving first baseman Aubrey Huff and cash to Houston for (then) shortstop Zobrist and starter Mitch Talbot. (Talbot was recently traded for Shoppach.) 球隊在2006年將中繼投手Danys Baez和Lance Carter交易至道奇換來先發潛力新秀 Edwin Jackson以及Chuck Tiffany(Jackson在08年球季結束被交易到老虎換來外野手 Joyce)，另外把1壘手Aubrey Huff和付一些錢向太空人換來游擊手Zobrist與先發投手 Mitch Talbot(球隊在去年球季結束和印地安人做交易將Talbot換來捕手Shoppach)。 Friedman also spun two deals with the Dodgers. First, he shipped starter/ giant Mark Hendrickson, catcher Toby Hall and cash for starter/arsonist Jae-Weong Seo, catcher Dioner Navarro and outfielder Justin Ruggiano. Then, as the trade deadline came into view, he dealt shortstop Julio Lugo for outfielder Sergio Pedroza and infielder Joel Guzman. Friedman同樣地再向道奇噱了兩個對自己有利的交易，首先，送走身材高大的先發投手Mark Hendrickson、捕手Toby Hall和付一些錢換來控球不穩的韓國先發投手徐在應和捕手Dioner Navarro和外野手Justin Ruggiano，然後在快要到交易日期結束時，交易掉Julio Lugo換來外野手Sergio Pedroza和內野手Joel Guzman。 Throughout the years, the Rays have demonstrated a high level of success in player scouting, whether it be domestic or international, prospect or amateur. The clash between team preference(seemingly taking the controlled variable, i.e. the prospects, rather than rolling the dice) and the reality of their contender status is compelling, if not ultimately won by the chance at a championship. 這些年來，Rays無論在國內或國際、潛力新秀還是業餘球員的挑選上展現出高水準評價，所以在潛力新秀的挑選似乎就變的可以掌握而不是像亂槍打鳥。因此如果沒辦法獲得在最後贏得冠軍的機會，那就要考量在球隊的優先選擇權和球隊的現實競爭力中作出抉擇。 The problem is that the Rays must rely not upon their scouts'eyes and notes, but first upon Elias'algorithm to correctly identify Crawford and Pena as being worthy of Type-A status. Neither, surprisingly, is a lock. Evidently being the best defensive left fielder in baseball for many years running just isn't worth as much to the Elias'system as it should be. 問題在於Rays不僅是依賴他們球探的眼睛跟報告，而是使用Elias演算系統去校正確認 Crawford和Pena是不是個A咖？但是令人驚訝的，兩者都不是，這顯然是個難題。明顯地擁有MLB左外野最佳守備並且已經守備多年的Crawford在Elias系統確認後並沒有得到預期的結果。 The flip side to the Type-A status dilemma is that Pena very well could accept arbitration if offered. He loves the area and the team. Plus, with a first base market that includes Lance Berkman, Derek Lee, and oh yeah, Albert Pujols, the chance of Pena breaking the bank in free agency seems less certain than before. Agent Scott Boras'tumultuous offseason with Johnny Damon could certainly fuel the flame of Pena sticking with the Rays. 由於在TypeA的邊緣遊走，如果球隊提出薪資仲裁，Pena應該有很大的機會接受。他熱愛這個地方和這支球隊，再加上一壘手的市場有Lance Berkman、Derek Lee還有 Albert Pujols這些大咖球員，Pena在自由市場的價值不會像以前這麼高。去年季末經紀人Boras的胡亂喊話導致Johnny Damon沒有獲得好的合約促使Pena可能續留下來的意願會提高了很多。 That's not to say the Rays haven't been stocking up on first basemen like suntan lotion this offseason. The 2008 cult hero Dan Johnson and former prospect Ryan Shealy are in the system, as is the aforementioned Blalock. There's also Matthew Sweeney, a poor-fielding third baseman with offensive potential whom they acquired in the Scott Kazmir trade. And the Rays signed Cuban outfielder/first baseman Leslie Anderson to a contract worth nearly $4 million. 這並不是說Rays從來沒有在休賽期間補強一壘手，農場裡包括08年的Dan Johnson、昔日潛力新秀Ryan Shealy還有Blalock都是上述所講。當然也包括從Scott Kazmir交易案中換來的Matthew Sweeney，雖然他守備不好可是有好的攻擊潛力可以培養。而Rays 也用$4M的合約簽下古巴球員Leslie Anderson(可以守備外野以及1壘)。 The most comforting news for fans of the team who share a passion for amateur talent is that the club will hold six of the top 90 selections this June, including compensatory picks for failure to sign their first- and second-round selections in 2009 and a supplementary selection for the loss of Gregg Zaun. 在今年六月最讓球迷感到欣慰的消息是選秀時可以在前90個選秀順位中保有6個名額 (註5)，包括因為沒有簽下09年的第一輪和第二輪選秀權球員的補償順位和成為自由球員的捕手Gregg Zaun所得到的額外選秀權。註5: 前90選秀順位其中6個分別是： 1. 2009年因為沒有簽下第一輪和第二輪順位的球員，今年可以重選。 2. 2010年補償去年沒有選到所以再加2個。 3. 捕手Gregg Zaun和中繼投手Brian Shouse皆為Type B得到2個三明治選秀，但是 Shouse被紅襪簽下後在春訓前又被釋出，要等有人撿他並且在MLB出賽才能正式獲得。總結，前90個順位只有5個，應該是原文作者算錯，順帶一題今年Rays的選秀順位是17、31、47、66、79、98。這邊請教了Jayin07大、qazwsdf大在推文中指正和Belladonaa大在MLB板的說明，謝謝。 So whether Crawford and Pena stay or leave via trade or free agency, the Rays will be making a ton of early selections over the next two Junes which, along with the rise of arms like Matthew Moore and Alexander Colome, should keep the Rays'farm system amongst the best in baseball, even with the graduation of guys like … 因此，無論Crawford和Pena留下或透過交易或成為自由球員離開，Rays在未來2年的球員選秀都保有很多較好的選秀權順位，而且農場裡投球威力逐漸展現出來的投手 Matthew Moore和Alexander Colome，也因為如此使得Rays的農場系統可以繼續傲視全MLB ，即便是3A球員畢業也不會影響太大。 Will Desmond Jennings see the majors this year? 今年是否能看到Desmond Jennings上MLB呢? The short answer: Probably not until September. 簡短的回答：大概要到九月擴編之後才能看到他 The long answer: Jennings is the undisputed top prospect for the Rays. He's a 23-year-old center fielder who bats right-handed, throws right-handed, and possesses five tools. Last year, Jennings played in 132 minor league games across Double- and Triple-A and combined for a batting line of .318/.401/.488 with 11 homers, 31 doubles and 52 steals in 577 plate appearances. 詳細的回答：Jennings身為Rays農場系統最好的頂級新秀這點是毋庸置疑的。今年23歲的他，右投右打，守位為中外野，並且擁有Five Tools的上等新秀評價(註6)。 Jennings去年在2A和3A總共出場132比賽，打擊三圍為.318/.401/.488，且在577個打席裡留下11發全壘打、31個2壘安打和52次盜壘的紀錄。註6：Five Tools Player 指選手擁有好的 -> Hitting For Average(打擊能力)、Hitting For Power(長打力) Baserunning Skills and Speed(跑壘技巧和速度) Throwing Ability and Fielding Abilities(傳球和守備能力) Many will tell you that Jennings is the typical Rays prospect. That's a quick way to say the player is hyper-athletic with huge upside and likely has dark skin. Jennings is all of that. Some would say he's a walk-conscious version of Carl Crawford, or a hybrid of B.J. Upton and Crawford. The Rays chose Jennings out of an Alabama Juco in the 10th round of the 2006 draft, the same draft that produced Longoria. 許多人會跟你說Jennings是Rays農場系統所出產的典型新秀：球員皮膚黝黑、身材高大且擁有良好的運動能力，這都是快速認識Rays新秀的方法。並且他也都符合了上述所說的條件，有些人注意到他就像是Carl Crawford的翻版，或是B.J. Upton和Crawford的綜合體。Rays在06年選秀會第10輪簽下從Alabama Juco大學畢業的Jennings，類似像這樣的事還有Longoria(註7)。註7：Longoria和Jennings都是在同一年被Rays簽下。感謝qazwsdf大指正。 The problem—and literally, it might be the only problem—with Jennings has been health. He missed most of 2008 with a strained back and his spring training experience ended prematurely with a sprained wrist. The other problem, and this isn't so much with Jennings or so much a problem, is that the Rays have incredible outfield depth in the majors already. Crawford, Upton, Kapler and Joyce form a solid foursome, with Zobrist and Rodriguez being able to take reps there as well. There's also future poet laureate Fernando Perez and Jaime Cevallos' newest patient Ruggiano roaming around Durham, just itching for a crack at St. Petersburg. 保持健康是Jennings的問題...這可能也是他唯一的問題。前年因為背部拉傷錯過大半球季，並且在春訓前扭傷手腕也使他馬上提前結束春訓。還有一個問題，不過對他來說可大可小，Rays在外野位置已經有一卡車的球員卡在前面，包括有防守不錯的 Crawford、Upton、Kapler和Joyce，還有身為工具人的Zobrist和Rodriguez也可以守備這裡。也包括相當被看好的潛力新秀Perez和待在3A Durham接受Jaime Cevallos修正打擊姿勢的Ruggiano，即將在St. Petersbug嶄露頭角。 Will James Shields ever be appreciated? James Shields是否會受到注意呢? Minus the 2008 playoffs and the now infamous "Big Game" nickname controversy, Shields has avoided the spotlight like his favorite meal is blood. Yet, over the last three seasons, Shields has a lower xFIP than John Lackey, Chad Billingsley, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Verlander, Andy Pettitte, Gil Meche, Scott Kazmir, Scott Baker, Mark Buehrle and John Danks. He's thrown more innings than everyone in baseball except CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay and Dan Haren over that period as well. 扣掉08季後賽和"Big Game"的這個綽號爭議不談，Shields向來都不是焦點所在。然而，在過去三個球季，Shields擁有比John Lackey、Chad Billingsley、Adam Wainwright 、Cliff Lee、Justin Verlander、Andy Pettitte、Gil Meche、Scott Kazmir、 Scott Baker、Mark Buehrle和John Danks還要低的xFIP。同樣在這段時期他所吃下的局數只比CC Sabathia、Roy Halladay和Dan Haren要少。 So, why doesn't the guy get more love? It's hard to say. Nothing about Shields' approach is spectacular. His velocity doesn't win him radar gun groupies, his change-up is fantastic but he's taken to using it less and less as the opposing hitters expect it more and more, and his mellow persona doesn't allow for much in the way of imagination. He's just James Shields. He's just the guy who never reached top prospect status and appeared in 2006 under the name of Jamie. He's just the guy who took the win in Tampa Bay's first playoff game and lays claim to the only positive World Series decision in franchise history. 那麼，為什麼這個小子會沒有受到關注呢？這其實不太好說，Shields沒有什麼接近可以使人印象深刻的表現，他的速球只是普普通通並不會快到引人注目，擁有極品的變速球，但是當打者越猜測他會投變速球時，他就越來越少使用它，個性柔和的他並不會使人留下深刻的印象。但那就是他，雖然在06年沒有達到頂級新秀的地位，卻在隊史上第一次季後賽為球隊拿下第一場勝利且積極地助其進入世界大賽。 He's just James Shields, the old chew toy on a staff of young guns. He's just James Shields, and that means he's just on the wrong end of some bad luck. He's never won 15 games in a single season (which would be a Rays record) despite being just fantastic throughout most of his career. His run support per game started has dwindled (from 3.8 to 3.7 to 3.3) despite the Rays' offense setting a franchise record for runs per game in 2009. 這就是他，在年輕有活力的球隊中總是默默的扮演好自己的角色，總是找不到擺脫負運的方法，綜觀他的球員生涯裡從未過單季獲得15勝--->目前還只是個夢想(假設有的話就是隊史紀錄)。隊友在他先發時的火力支援卻是逐年降低(這三年裡從平均每場3.8、3.7 甚至降低到去年的3.3分)，儘管09年球隊的每場平均得分是隊史紀錄。 He's the dude with the chin hair who wears number 33 and warms to the violent sounds of Du Hast. He's the dude who hasn't missed a start due to fatigue or injury since 2006, and missed a start in 2008 only because he tried being James Braddock. He's one of only two long-term investments on the Rays, alongside that Longoria guy, and he's under contract through 2014 for an average salary of roughly $7 million despite the Rays buying out a pair of free agency years. Consider this: Shields won’t make more than $8 million in a single season until 2013. Former teammate Edwin Jackson will make nearly $8.5 million next season. Here’s the kicker. Jackson’s career best season (as judged by xFIP) would be Shields' worst. James Shields，一個下巴留有鬍子的大男人、背號33號、喜歡搖滾樂團主唱Du Hast 粗曠的聲音。自從06年以來從未因為身體疲勞或是受傷缺席過任何一場先發，其中除了因為2008年跟拳王Coco Crisp的對決被禁賽因此而跳過了一次先發。目前Rays陣中有兩位長約的球員，他是其中之一，而另外一位是龍哥。他有一份平均7M合約到2014年，儘管 Rays已經買下成為自由球員的前兩年。讓我們來想這點：到2013年之前，在Shields身上任何一季薪水都不需要花超過8M，而昔日隊友Edwin Jackson下個球季會需要花到將近 8.5M。就xFIP來看，Jackson生涯最好的球季比Shields最爛的球季還差，但Shields卻比 Jackson還要便宜，這是多麼荒謬的事情!!! Shields is probably going to pitch pretty well in 2010. He’ll probably do it without much fanfare or attention either, which is fine, that’s just who he is. Shields在2010年很有可能會投的非常好，而也很有可能還是不會受到眾人關注。但是沒關係，這就是他。 by R.J. Anderson March 16, 2010 原文出處網址：http://tinyurl.com/yhv23nq 後話：這篇文章的翻譯主板幾天前就已經出來了，可是我想要翻的詳盡一點，但是因為英文不是很好，所以向英文好的朋友請教過，也感謝文中的兩位大大提供我資訊，如果有哪邊翻錯或是曲解作者想要表達的意思，還請板友不吝指教，謝謝。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.231.50.141

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