[Note] Team Preview: Tampa Bay Rays 2011

看板Rays作者immortalqq (大牛)時間14年前 (2011/03/24 11:40)推噓4(4推 0噓 6→)

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快速翻譯補充k版友 Team Preview: Tampa Bay Rays by Steve Slowinski - March 8, 2011 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/team-preview-tampa-bay-rays/ “The death of the Rays is greatly exaggerated.” – Joe Maddon, Spring Training 2011 西瓜說: 別人對於閃光季後的損失實在過於誇大 I know I’m going to be accused of homerism, but here it is: the Rays are better than you think they are. Yes, I know they just had a rough off season, losing Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Joaquin Benoit, Rafael Soriano, Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, Grant Balfour, and Dan Wheeler. Those players contributed a total of 15 wins to the Rays last season, and the Rays didn’t add much free agent talent to compensate for these losses. Manny Ramirez, Johnny Damon, and Kyle Farnsworth were their only notable roster moves, and they are easy to write off as they are aging or (in the case of Farnsworth) have a spotty track record. How could the Rays possibly hope to compete with the Yankees and the restocked, reloaded Red Sox? 作者按:我知道我會有些過於樂觀但事實上閃光比你想的還要好當然閃光季後損失一堆好手像是:尻佛.小潘潘.班蛙.Sori.Garza.Bartlett.Balfour.輪人這些球員在去年替閃光貢獻大約15勝的成績,而閃光並沒有簽下夠多的FA來補足他們的貢獻 Manny 大門放肆火是唯一幾項閃光可以讓人記得的補強,但這三位都有年紀上的問題如此一來閃光如何能在同分區跟萬惡金錢帝國洋基以及季後積極補強的"親切"樓下鄰居紅襪相比? And yet, that’s exactly what the Rays plan to do. 閃光將會這麼做 The Starting Nine 先發打線 RHP LHP C John Jaso Kelly.蝦配 1B 蛋.強森蛋.強森 2B Zoby S-Rod 3B 龍哥龍哥 SS Brignac Brignac LF 囧尼大門囧尼大門 CF BJ Upton BJ Upton RF Joyce Zoby DH Manny be Manny Manny be Manny platoons possible platoons Behold, the mind of Joe Maddon! You may have heard how the Rays like using every advantage they can get, always searching for that Extra 2%, and Joe Maddon buys into that philosophy with authority. In an effort to maximize his team’s production, he shuffles the lineup around nearly every day – 129 different lineups last season – so trying to predict exactly where players will play on the field or where they’ ll hit in the lineup is nearly impossible. On most days, Evan Longoria will likely hit third with Manny Ramirez behind him, but that’s the only certainty in the lineup at this point. 你大概聽過閃光是如何的去運用他們所能得到的優勢。運用Extra 2%外加西瓜的腦(?!) [西瓜有腦嗎 XXD] 為了達到球隊產出(不管是得分還是防守)西瓜幾乎每天變換打序去年他有129種組合 [Sonny有打過第三棒喔...] 這樣的安排讓每個人都無法預測球員會守哪裡或是打第幾棒,當然龍哥打3番 Manny打4番幾乎會是最不會變動的組合,也是閃光打序中唯一可以確定的 In terms of position platoons, there are also few straightforward answers. Jaso will play against righties, while Shoppach will see time against lefties and the occasional righty. Matt Joyce will see playing time against righties, but will likely be benched against most lefties (well, except for against those reverse split lefties). Sean Rodriguez will primarily be played against lefties, although I believe Maddon hopes to increase his playing time against righties this season. Along those lines, Reid Brignac will likely be the starting shortstop against both hands, but if he struggles against lefties, don’t be surprised to see Maddon pencil Sean Rodriguez in at shortstop. Also, while Johnny Damon and Dan Johnson will likely play everyday at their positions, Ben Zobrist or Sean Rodriguez could always get a few starts in favor of them against certain left-handed pitchers. 在可能platoons的情況下,閃光有一些簡單的答案例如:Jaso面對RHP 蝦配面對LHP(當然蝦配應該也會有些時間面對RHP); Joyce面對RHP 但對上LHP可能會坐板凳(除了對上那些假loogy); S-Rod面對LHP 當然我相信西瓜希望給他多點面對RHP的上場時間; 而Brignac無大礙應該會是先發SS 但如果對LHP打的很掙扎, 別對西瓜把S-Rod寫上先發名單(SS)而驚訝大門蛋.強森應該會是先發的LF跟1B, Zoby和S-Rod在面對LHP將會有多一些的上場時間 From a baseball perspective, I love this shuffling: the players don’t seem to mind it, and Maddon’s decisions are always rooted in the analysis he receives from the Rays’ front office. This shuffling may not result in consistent playing time for any player outside Evan Longoria (sorry, fantasy owners!), but since the Rays have so much defensive flexibility, these rotations makes for a better overall ball club. 從棒球觀點我實在太愛這種洗牌的模拉第一球員似乎不在意;第二西瓜的決定是有依據的(資料從閃光的FO分析得到) 這樣的大洗牌模式會導致每位球員的上場時間不太固定(這對FB玩家而言並不是好事) 但自從閃光有這樣的防守彈性對於球隊的整體競爭力無疑是上揚的 Depending how you look at it, the Rays had one of the better offenses in the league last season (3rd in runs scored, tied for 11th in wOBA). They did lose Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Jason Bartlett over the off season, but I believe the Rays won’t see as much of a drop off in this area as people would think. Reid Brignac may project to have a slightly worse bat than Bartlett, but he makes up the difference with his superior defense at shortstop. Carlos Pena had a down season last year, hitting below .200 and posting a .326 wOBA (barely better than league average), and Dan Johnson flashed some impressive power numbers in Triple-A and the majors in 2010 (.216 ISO, .339 wOBA). 去年閃光是全聯盟進攻最佳的隊伍之一(Run是第三名 wOBA並列第11名) 的確季末後他們損失了尻佛小潘潘跟Bartlett, 但我不覺得閃光會像其他人所想的:drop off(跌落) Brignac打擊應該是比Bartlett差但是他守備真是不錯小潘潘去年打擊奇慘(略高於聯盟平均) 而蛋.強森去年的數字讓人驚豔 As for Carl Crawford – well, yes, there’s no way the Rays will be able to replace him. Remember, though, that the Rays are a young team and should see increased production from a number of players as a result. Also, Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon will be boosts on offense; even if Manny Ramirez’s power disappears, he’s sure to improve upon the .238/.328/.376 line that the Rays got from their DH position last season. 講到尻佛的離去好吧閃光沒人可取代他的表現..... 但是請記得閃光是支年輕而且持續進步的球隊,Manny 大門的加入也提升閃光的打擊雖然Manny的打擊砲瓦似乎消失不少但看看去年閃光DH精美的成績(.238/.328/.376) Manny在怎麼樣應該也可以輕鬆讓閃光打線升級 The Pitching Staff 先發陣容 LHP David Price RHP James Shields RHP Jeff Niemann RHP Wade Davis RHP Jeremy Hellickson Unlike the lineup, the starting rotation is pretty straightforward: it’s an above average rotation with plenty of depth. David Price is an emerging ace and although he is unlikely to post another sub-3 ERA this season, he’s still one of the best, young left-handed pitchers in the game. He’s supposedly working on refining his change-up, which could add another weapon to his repertoire. James Shields is a workhorse that will log 200 innings and should have his ERA regress to the 4.00 range, but he does need to improve his fastball location if he wants to lower the number of homeruns he allows. Jeff Niemann is possibly the world’s tallest junkball pitcher, as he succeeds mostly by mixing up his six pitches and boring batters to sleep. 不像打擊陣容閃光的先發真的是相當爽阿不但是高於平均而且有深度 Price無疑是ACE 但去年ERA低於3的情況應該很難重現,但他依然是最好的左投之一如果Price持續專研進步他的變速球將會增加他另一種可怕的武器阿盾是一匹每年穩定吃200IP的優良工作馬今年他的ERA應該會降至4以下(去年有點衰) 如果他想降低被HR的話他必須把他的快速球控好壓低尼門是很棒的變化球投手成功的表現來自於在投球中變換他的六種球路讓打者迷惑 As for the final two, both Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson deserve keeping an eye on this season. Davis had a patchy first full season in the majors, posting a 4.07 ERA with some rocky peripherals (4.79 FIP, 4.81 xFIP), so most people would view him as a likely candidate for regression. However, to some extent, Davis’s 2010 season resembled David Price’s 2009 season: he started off the season a mess (first half: 4.69 ERA, 5.9 K/9, 4 BB/9), but improved his process and results as the season progressed (second half: 3.28 ERA, 6.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9). As he now has a full season under his belt at the majors, he could take a step forward in 2011. Along those lines, Jeremy Hellickson is a top rated prospect with high expectations, but his results may not equal the expectations in his first season. Both Price and Davis struggled upon first reaching the majors, and Hellickson is no flamethrower that will blow batters away; he’s actually very similar to James Shields in his repertoire and skill set. 輪值後面兩位Davis跟Hellboy 很值得讓大家多看一眼去年是Davis低一個完整球季 ERA4.07 而且有良好數據(4.79 FIP, 4.81 xFIP) 所以許多人今年對Davis有期待 Davis在2010球季的表現跟Price在2009 相當類似(前半球季很慘後半球季大幅進步) bounce back是可預期的 Hellboy是閃光的頂級新秀很受人矚目但他今年表現不太可能跟去年一樣 Price跟Davis的第一個完整球季都有些掙扎, 另外Hellboy不是火球投手靠直球讓打者吃鱉他像阿盾的投球方式--擅用變速球疑惑打者火牛陣 Hi-Lev RHP 放肆火 Hi-Lev LHP McGee Hi-Lev RHP Russell ┌ R.Delaney Mid-Lev ??? -----------│ M.Ekstrom └ C.Wade Loogy LHP Ramos Roogy RHP Peralta LongMan RHP Sonny After losing Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Rafael Soriano, and Dan Wheeler, the Rays’ bullpen has been pegged by most analysts as a disaster. Andrew Friedman did his best to construct a bullpen on a budget this off season, but even he has admitted that the relief pitcher market worked against him and kept him from acquiring one more high leverage arm. That said, I think (and again, this is the homer in me speaking) that their ‘pen is not as bad as most people are making it out to be. There’s no telling exactly how the final bullpen roster will shake out right now, as there are multiple players competing for that final spot, but it looks as though Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee, and Adam Russell will be sharing high-leverage situations. The Rays are banking on Farnsworth having improved his game for real over the last few seasons, and they’re taking a flyer on a high upside arm in Adam Russell, but rookie Jake McGee throws in the high 90s and has closer potential. Joel Peralta will be used like Dan Wheeler was in the past – as a right-handed one-out guy – and relief ace J.P. Howell should be back in the bullpen by the beginning of May. 在失去Balfour 班蛙 Sori跟輪人之後,閃光的牛棚是被批評成像是一場大災難在整隊預算被砍的情況下安豬火男在季後已經做了他所能夠做的一切因預算問題安豬無法在RP市場找尋更好的選擇(只能多簽樂透...) 我再說一次(容我在提醒一次我可能過於樂觀) 閃光牛棚沒有想像那麼糟糕現在也沒有任何確定資訊說明後段牛棚會是如何目前來看將會是多位球員共同競爭,而放肆火 McGee Russell大概會是最後的防線閃光希望放肆火是真的能維持近年的表現,也期待Russell的潛力而McGee則是可以投超過95麥的火球而且他本來就備受期待 Peralta大概像是輪人之前在閃光的腳色對付右打別忘記去開TJ的JP Howell 他應該會在五月回到牛棚 Player To Watch 值得觀察的球員 There are so many, how can I choose just one? Ben Zobrist should have an improved year at the plate, as a back injury sapped him of his power last season. BJ Upton is always a potential breakout candidate. Matt Joyce has some impressive power, and has the potential to develop into a force at the plate against both righties and lefties. 實在太多球員了我怎麼能就選一個??? Zoby去年因背傷而使砲瓦下降今年應該有不錯的反彈 BJ Upton持續是閃光內大爆發的候選人 Joyce有著讓人驚豔的砲瓦而且有潛力能將右投甚至左投迎頭痛擊 But how could I spend an entire season preview without talking about Manny Ramirez? After having a “down” season in 2010 – yes, a .382 wOBA is apparently considered a down year for this 39 year old – Ramirez was forgotten on the free agent market and went unsigned until late January. The Rays needed an extra bat in their lineup, especially after suffering through the horrors of Pat Burrell trying to hit in the American League, and Manny’s pricetag was perfect: $2M (or $7.5M, if you consider Damon as well). Despite concerns that his bad speed may have slowed, Ramirez still reached base 40% of the time last season and hit for a respectable amount of power (.162 ISO). He’s not the player he once was, but Manny could still be the steal of the off season. 等等但是我怎麼整篇都幾乎沒提到Manny呢? 已經"高齡"39歲的他在去年賽季讓人失望(.382 wOBA) 於是FA市場也幾乎忘記這號人物(到2011.1都還沒人簽) 閃光必須增加打線的破壞力尤其是那莫在提的Burrell Manny的2M(或著包括大門也可說成是7.5M)是相當划算的價格 Manny的緩慢跑速應該更慢了但去年他上壘率40% 以及相當程度的砲瓦 Manny已經不是過去的Manny 但這約依然合算也算是FA市場上的一偷 Since arriving in Spring Training, Manny has been nothing but a positive presense: he’s been working harder than anyone else, going to the batting cage even on off days, and working with Evan Longoria frequently. I’m not quite sure where the tales of him having attitude problems came from, but at the very least, he seems like a different man. 自從春訓開始 Manny只有積極而已, 他比誰都認真假日甚至還去做打擊練習而且跟常跟龍哥一起訓練我不知道Manny的態度問題從何而來但是單就目前而言他似乎跟以前大不相同 Summary 總結 The Rays have a strong roster and most projection systems have them pegged as around an 87-88 win team. In the AL East, 88 wins is only good enough for third place and a pat on the back, but this is a high-variance team filled with young talent. They'll need some bad luck to hit the Yankees or Red Sox and some good luck to hit their roster, but competing for a playoff spot isn’ t out of the question. If a few good things bounce there way, the Rays could easily win 90+ games, and put themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt. 閃光有強力的陣容大約預估有87-88場的勝利但是在美東88勝只能當老三閃光必須要有一些好運氣跟壞運氣(這我不是挺懂...)去擊敗北老跟襪襪季後賽也不是全然無望如果好事持續不斷閃光可以輕鬆贏超過90場並擠身季後賽 And if the Rays don’t manage to reach the playoffs this season, oh well, it was a restocking year for them anyway. Their roster is locked and loaded coming into 2012 and they have 10 first round draft picks in this year’s amateur draft, so Yankees and Red Sox fans better not write off the Rays too quickly. They’re not going anywhere 如果閃光今年無法擠身季後賽那麼也會是閃光儲備能量的一年因為閃光目前陣容固定而且今年他們將有10個第一輪選秀所以北佬跟襪襪的球迷請別把閃光給遺忘他就在你背後哪都不會去的 ====== 有錯請指教 XXD -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 220.136.69.244