[外電] What's Up With Wade Davis?

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間13年前 (2011/12/07 16:18)推噓6(6推 0噓 2→)

留言8則, 5人參與討論串1/1

原文：http://ppt.cc/6Iwd As we all know, the Rays are looking to trade a starting pitcher this offseason. Yeah yeah, Andrew Friedman claims that he's happy with his current depth and isn't going to trade anyone, but we should all be able to see through his doubletalk by now. The Rays need to open up a rotation spot for Matt Moore (or to begin the season, Alex Cobb), and we've already heard rumors that Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis are on the trade market. 如我們所知，光芒在這個休賽期會嘗試將一位先發投手交易掉。Andrew Friedman的確宣稱他對目前的深度很滿意，不會交易任何人，但我們還是能猜出一些端倪。為了讓Matt Moore(季初是Alex Cobb)，已經聽到關於交易Jeff Niemann和Wade Davis的消息。 Odds are one of the Rays' starters gets dealt this offseason, and it'll likely be one of three pitchers: Niemann, Davis, or Cobb. The trick is, which pitcher do the Rays think they can get the most return for? 可能被交易出去的投手有Niemann、Davis或Cobb。重點是，那位投手可以讓光芒得到最大的收穫。 The common assumption around here seems to be that Wade Davis is the likely candidate to go. He's young and under a very affordable contract for the next three seasons (with three more team options), and he's shown the potential to be a solid, dependable starter. Yet the more I look at Davis' numbers, the more I begin to wonder: are we vastly overestimating Davis' trade value? 這個假設讓Wade Davis成為交易名單的候選人，年輕、三年便宜的合約(外加三年球隊選項)，展現成為可靠實用的先發投手的潛力。但看越多數據，就越懷疑是不是高估了他的交易價值？ Consider: Wade Davis has now thrown nearly 400 innings in the majors and he's entering his age 26 season, yet he has a career 4.55 FIP and 4.61 SIERA. His strikeout rate has declined each of the past three seasons, and he's an extreme flyball pitcher (42%) that has benefited from playing in the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. His peripheral statistics stunk in 2010, and he only got worse in 2011. 試想一下：快滿26歲的Wade Davis已經在大聯盟投了將近400局，生涯卻是4.55 FIP， 4.61 SIERA。三振率逐年下滑，這位飛球型投手在純品康納球場佔了不少便宜，'10年成績不理想，'11年表現更糟。 When you dig into Davis' stats a bit more, the picture doesn't necessarily get any prettier. His strikeout rate was below average against both righties (12%) and lefties (14%) last season, but he actually had some success in keeping lefties in the park (0.8 HR/9, 3.81 FIP). And it's not like he was working with a pitch repertoire that was only suited for one hand or the other; he features both a slider and a curveball, which should give him a weapon against both hands. He simply couldn't get many whiffs with either pitch last season, though -- 15-20%, max. 深入來看，Davis的表現也沒比較好，對左右打的三振率都低於平均(L：14%，R：12%)，但確實壓低左打者將球打出場外的機率(0.8 HR/9，3.81 FIP)，這表示他不是只能特別對決右打或左打。變化球路有滑球和曲球，不論面對左右打都能做為武器。上季兩種球路都投得不多，最多也就15-20%。 All this doesn't even mention his injury history. While he's no Jeff Niemann, Davis has gone on the DL each of the past two seasons with some ailment or the other. These stints may have been for minor injuries, but it still likely raises question marks in the eyes of other teams. 還沒提到他的傷病史。他不是Jeff Niemann，但過去兩季也出現在傷兵名單。雖然都是小傷，但還是可能會提高其他球隊的質疑。 If you want to look at the positives, Davis did post improved strikeout numbers and peripherals from late July on. But even at his best last season, he was an average pitcher (4.31 FIP in August) and struggled to keep his K:BB ratio above two. He's not exactly a young ace, or even a pitcher that looks like he has much upside at the moment. If it wasn't for his minor league history and past scouting reports, I'd be ready to write Wade Davis off as a bust. 看看正面的消息，Davis從七月底提高了三振數和其他相關數據。但即使是這個賽季最佳的時期，也不過是個一般的投手(八月FIP 4.31)，K/BB在2附近掙扎。不是年輕王牌，甚至現在已經沒有太多潛力。如果不是參考過去在小聯盟的表現和過去的球探報告，我會認為 Wade Davis養成是失敗的。 So when teams look at the Rays, are they going to be excited about the possibility of getting Wade Davis? I don't think so. He has too many question marks hanging over his head right now, and he hasn't been a good enough pitcher to really garner much of a return. He has upside, especially in the National League, but I wouldn't bank on him bringing in a haul. 所以當其他隊嘗試與光芒進行交易時，還會對獲得Wade Davis感到興奮嗎？我不這麼認為。目前他被貼上太多質疑的標籤，也沒有好到足以獲得可觀的回報。還有進步空間，特別是在國聯，但我不指望能從他身上得到什麼。 At least, that's what I'm finding myself thinking more and more these days. Agree? Disagree? Have at it.' 最後，這是我最近在思考的問題，不論同不同意，都歡迎留下你的意見。 *One a side note, I'm still a proponent of thinking about moving Davis to the bullpen. His contract makes it a distinct possibility, as he won't make more than Kyle Farnsworth is currently until 2014 ($4.8 million). If the Rays think he has limited upside as a starter, why not try and turn him into a back-of-the-bullpen arm? Reallocate that pitching depth. 註：我提議考慮把Davis移往牛棚。'14年前，他的薪資不會超過Kyle Farnsworth(4.8M) ，讓這個操作變得可行。如果光芒認為他在先發的位子不會再進步了，何不把他移往牛棚呢？重新調配投手的深度。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.6.244