[Note] Fangraphs Rays Top 15 Prospect (#4-6)
#4-6
#4 Taylor Guerrieri (P)
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
19 12 12 52.0 35 0 7.79 0.87 0.87 1.99
Guerrieri, who just turned 20 in December, was the 24th overall selection
during the 2011 amateur draft and his stuff is undeniably good. The South
Carolina native has a low-90s fastball that touches the mid-90s, as well as a
potentially-plus curveball and a potentially-above-average changeup. His
control grades as above-average for his age, thanks to his consistent
delivery, but the command of his secondary offerings is a step behind.
What caused him to slide in the draft, though, was concern over his maturity.
However, as I discussed with a contact, the maturity of a teenager entering
professional baseball for the first time is always a concern but often
overblown. The contact stated that the right-hander had a great season both
statistically and “how he conducted himself as a professional.”
Guerrieri spent his first official season in pro ball (He didn't pitch after
signing late in 2011) in short-season Hudson Valley where he allowed just
five walks and 35 hits in 52 innings of work. Tampa Bay is notoriously
cautious with the development of its young pitchers but Guerrieri should open
2013 in A-ball and could move fairly quickly. The young hurler could be ready
for the majors around late 2015 or early 2016.
#5 Alex Colome (P)
Age G GS IP H HR K/9 BB/9 ERA FIP
23 17 17 91.2 81 3 8.84 4.22 3.44 3.10
Colome, 24, is entering his seventh pro season and the Rays' patience is
about to pay off. The right-hander split last season between double-A and
triple-A — although an injury ended his season prematurely — and could be
ready for the majors after about half a year of seasoning back in the upper
levels of the system.
The Dominican Republic native has an overpowering fastball that ranges from
the mid-to-upper 90s and he backs it up with three complementary offerings,
including a slider/cutter, curveball and changeup. He reportedly has a better
curveball but I really liked what I saw from his slider/cutter. Colome has
the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter but, if he can't stick in the starting
rotation, a contact I spoke with said the prospect has a chance to develop
into a dominating reliever. “He has a chance to do both,” he said. “It's
just a matter of command.”
Colome is an impressive pitcher to watch when he's firing on all cylinders. I
saw him hit 97 mph with his first pitch of the game (stadium gun). He pitched
with a low three-quarter arm slot that showed a little effort in the first
inning while he struggled with his fastball command but looked better as the
game progressed. Colome's fastball showed impressive arm-side run when his
mechanics were clicking.
He also looked more comfortable from the stretch, possibly due to the
simplified mechanics compared to his full wind-up. The stadium gun was
probably a little hot but I saw him bury a 90 mph slider/cutter in the dirt
and he featured an impressive 10 mph difference between his fastball and
changeup. Credit certainly had to go to the young pitcher's veteran catcher
in that game — as well as to Colome for his coachability — for mixing up
his pitches, changing speeds and moving the ball around the zone.
#6 Jake Odorizzi (P)
Age G GS IP K/9 BB/9 GB% ERA FIP WAR
22 2 2 7.1 4.91 4.91 26.9% 4.91 5.41 0.0
A key component to the 2010 Zack Greinke trade between Milwaukee and Kansas
City, Odorizzi rose methodically through both systems. He opened 2012 back in
double-A but quickly moved up to triple where he made 19 appearances (18
starts). After the season, the right-hander was traded to Tampa Bay along
with Wil Myers, and a collection of prospects, for James Shields and Wade
Davis.
Odorizzi's biggest strength may be his athleticism, which helps him repeat
his arm slot and field his position. He also has an impressive pitcher's
frame and has been durable over the past two seasons, pitching more than 140
innings each season. Odorizzi's repertoire includes an average fastball that
ranges between 88-92 mph. He also has a curveball, slider and changeup – all
of which have the potential to be average or better with improved command.
His control is currently ahead of his command. I have some concerns over his
extreme fly-ball tendencies in 2012 and his ground-ball rates have dipped
with each move up the ladder through the minor league system. A contact I
spoke with said Odorizzi's fly-ball rates are the result of relying heavily
on his four-seam fastball. “As his changeup gets better and he starts using
his two-seamer more, I believe his rates will hold up,” he said. The
pitching prospect has the ceiling of a No. 3 or 4 starter. Now that he's in a
system with more pitching depth, Odorizzi, 22, will almost certainly return
to triple-A to open 2013.
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DATE OPP IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB PIT BF DEC ERA
Jul 26 DET 9.0 0 0 0 0 1 6 8 12 120 27 W(11-5) 4.06
Jul 20 @BAL 6.1 10 7 7 4 0 5 9 15 99 29 - 4.36
Jul 10 CLE 6.0 1 0 0 0 1 2 6 11 88 21 W(10-5) 4.05
Jul 7 BOS 0.2 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 20 4 Sv(1) 4.28
Jul 5 BOS 3.0 7 4 4 1 2 1 4 10 84 17 - 4.30
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