[外電] Five questions: Tampa Bay Rays

看板Rays作者qazwsdf (bird_head)時間12年前 (2013/03/12 15:00)推噓7(7推 0噓 3→)

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http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-tampa-bay-rays-2013/ Despite not making the playoffs in 2012, the Tampa Bay Rays had a very good season. They won 90 games in the American League East, finishing in third place, and were strong on both sides of the ball, posting the eighth-best wRC+ in the majors and the best overall FIP. 儘管去年沒能挺進季後賽，2012年仍是光芒成功的球季，去年在美東贏了90場，排名第三。而在進階數據wRC+跟FIP上，光芒分別是第八與第一。 That being said, the front office had a busy offseason with B.J. Upton becoming a free agent and James Shields becoming more expensive. So after these last few months of movement, here are some of the questions facing the team as we head into the 2013 season. 雖然如此，FO在忙碌的季後須要面對Upton的離開與Shields逐年漸升的高薪。在這數個月FO的動作之後，2013球季必須克服一些問題。 What is the rotation outlook after trading Shields? Shields離開後的輪值是？ In December, the Rays pulled off a shocking deal, sending Shields, Wade Davis and Elliot Johnson to the Royals for prospects Wil Myers, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi and Patrick Leonard.Though Tampa was applauded (as always) for getting a lot of young talent back for a relatively pricy Shields, a reliever, and a spare part, the deal did make the Rays weaker for the upcoming year. 去年12月，光芒做出了驚人的交易，將Shields、Davis以及E.Johnson送到了皇家，換來了潛力新秀群Myers、Montgomery、Odorizzi跟Leonard。雖然這項交易光芒被視為贏家(光芒通常都是交易後的贏家)──搶了一堆年輕有才能的新秀，只丟出相對高薪的Shields、一個RP跟一個替補。但在接下來的球季裡，光芒真的變得較弱。 Shields, 31, had a fantastic 2012 campaign, pitching to a 3.47 FIP across 227.2 innings. He was a nice bridge in the rotation between ace David Price and youngsters Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore. The Rays do have the depth to compensate for the loss with guys like Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Jeff Niemann and Roberto Hernandez, and even though they should be good enough, the quality of the innings probably won't be as high. Of course, they still have a more experienced Hellickson and Moore, who both will have to take another step. 31歲的Shields在2012這個驚奇的球季裡，227.2局中的FIP是3.47。他在輪值裡的角色，是扮演在王牌Price與年輕投手Hellickson跟Moore之間的重要橋梁。光芒雖然有極深的輪值人選可以補上，如Cobb、Archer、Niemann和Hernandez，他們都有不錯的實力，但優異的投球內容將無法被取代。 How far will Fernando Rodney regress? Rodney會回復到往年成績的幾成？ The immediate reaction to this question is probably "very far." After all, Rodney, almost 36, had a career year,setting the record for lowest ERA ever posted by a relief pitcher (0.60) as the Rays closer. Before 2012, he had a career 4.29 ERA. Even if he had a career ERA that was relatively low, it would still be close to impossible for him to repeat this performance. However, there is reason to believe that Rodney's numbers weren't just a fluke. 你可能馬上會回答"非常多"，畢竟接近36歲的Rodney，去年有完美的生涯年，達成史上ERA 最低的後援投手(0.60)。但在2012球季以前，他生涯ERA總計是4.29。即便他去年達成生涯最低的ERA紀錄，但要他再複製一次這種成績幾乎是不可能的。然而，我們有理由相信這樣的數據不足以證實他的成績只是僥倖。 First, one big reason why he was able to cut down the runs he allowed was because he reduced his walks. Heading into last year, he had issued almost five passes per nine innings over his career. In 2012, he dropped that down to just 1.81. One reason could be that he has moved where he stands on the rubber. RJ Anderson of Baseball Prospectus wrote about how Rodney has shifted all the way to the first base side of the rubber from the middle. As he points out, it was a radical shift, and it may have helped Rodney mechanically, at least a little bit. 首先，最大的理由來自他能減少保送的次數，以至於能降低了他的失分。去年以前他的 BB/9接近5個人次(根據BR為4.4)，而去年卻降低到只有1.81。而造成這樣的改變似乎是來自他在投手板的站位，BP作家RJ Anderson指出Rodney在投手板的站位，比起以前站在中央的習慣更往一壘移動，因此當他投球出去後，這樣的站位會幫助Rodney，至少有一點點有用。 So yes, there will be a decent amount of regression from Rodney, but maybe not as much as we think if this continues to work. 所以，Rodney的成績會回到過去的表現，但也許不會那麼多。 How will they replace Upton on offense? 如何取代Upton留下的火力空缺？ This is really going to be the biggest question for Tampa. Upton posted a .323 wOBA and hit 28 homers last season despite getting on base at only a .298 clip. One thing the Rays will need to stay above water on offense is a healthy year from Evan Longoria. Longoria, who just received a huge 10-year extension, played in only 74 games last year, though he posted a .378 wOBA. A full season of the third baseman really would help soften the blow of losing Upton. 這是光芒面臨最大的問題。Upton去年提供了.323wOBA與28發紅不讓打擊數據，不過上壘率才.298。而光芒想在攻擊層面上達成平均以上，就得需要龍哥健康打完一個球季。去年只打74場比賽的他提供了.378wOBA。龍哥完整個球季才能減輕Upton所遺留的火力空缺。 Desmond Jennings will be filling in for Upton in center field, and while he didn't have a great season overall in 2012, he had a very good second half (110 wRC+). He hit the disabled list with a knee injury, and his plate discipline seemed to take a step back, but he's still young (26) and obviously still can get better at picking the right pitches to hit. 建寧會取代Upton守中外野，而他在2012年留下不甚理想的成績，但是下半球季打擊的進階數據(110 wRC+)非常不錯。去年到DL報到過，選球能力似乎退步，但他仍然年輕，仍然可以選中好球揮擊。 I'm not sure the Rays can completely replace what Upton brought in the speed and power departments (and also on defense for that matter), but better years out of these two guys is a good start in trying. 我無法確定光芒能否填補上Upton以往帶來的速度與火力的貢獻(防守也是)，但這兩人良好的開季會嘗試說服我補上。 What impact will Wil Myers have? Myers會帶來甚麼衝擊呢？ When the Shields/Myers deal went down, one of the first questions asked was whether Myers was going to start the season with Tampa or with Triple-A Durham. The consensus seems to be that the 22-year-old outfielder will start the year in Durham and will be called up at some point in the middle of the season for service time reasons. 當Myers被交易來了以後，第一個問題是他開季是直上大聯盟還是留在3A練經驗？很顯然地，大家都認為這個22歲外野手會留在3A，在季中的時候才會被叫上來，理由不外乎讓光芒可以多留他一年。 Baseball America recently ranked Myers the No. 4 prospect in all of baseball, and he also was named the 2012 Minor League Player of the Year by the publication. These honors were well deserved: He hit .314/.387/.600 with 37 homers between Double-A and Triple-A. Though strikeouts are a slight concern, he did whiff less frequently as the season went on, even with the level change. BA將Myers排名為新秀中的第4名，而在BA 2012出版的書籍中被譽為年度最佳新秀。他在 2A與3A的攻擊三圍為 .314/.387/.600附加37發紅不讓，而他在三振次數上是需要注意一下，但仍有進步。 As stated above, the trade made the Rays weaker for the upcoming year, but it also made them stronger for the long term by adding a young, cost-controlled, and potentially powerful bat to their lineup. Myers may not play a big role now , but he could be a nice shot in the arm down the stretch and beyond. 如上所述，這交易使光芒在接下來一年實力變得較弱，但也讓光芒在長期發展下更有競爭力，加入了年輕、便宜、又有打擊實力的新秀。Myers也許不會馬上升到大聯盟，但他的加入是非常好的選擇。 How do they stack up in the American League East? 光芒如何能在美東出頭？ The already strong AL East seemingly has gotten stronger over the past few months. 美東火藥庫已經晉升為美東核爆場。 Starting north of the border, the Blue Jays added some impact ploayers via a couple of trades. They acquired starting pitchers R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, along with shortstop Jose Reyes and utility man Emilio Bonifacio. With all that and the signing of Melky Cabrera, Toronto looks ready to contend and appears to be an early favorite to win the division. 從最北邊的藍鳥完成了數項驚人的交易：輪值迎來了Dickey、J.Johnson跟Buehrle，游擊升級成Reyes，UT升級為Bonifacio。簽了牛奶弟，看起來就是要拿美東冠軍的球隊。 The other bottom-feeder of the division in 2012, the Red Sox, got better as well. They added Shane Victorino, a damaged Mike Napoli, and other miscellaneous pieces to their offense and Ryan Dempster and Joel Hanrahan to their pitching staff. They very easily could be right back in contention. 去年墊底的紅襪也做了不錯的補強：簽下夏威夷人、披薩、蛋皮跟Hanrahan Despite losing Nick Swisher and Russell Martin to free agency and suffering some injuries to key players before the season has even started, the Yankees are coming off a 95-win campaign and are always a bet to be right in the thick of things come September. They maintained the status quo with their pitching (Rafael Soriano being the exception) by retaining Andy Pettitte, Hiroki Kuroda, and Mariano Rivera and added Kevin Youkilis and a healthy Brett Gardner on offense. 洋基雖然目送Swisher、Soriano跟Martin離開，幾位大咖受傷(鐵爺跟A-ROD)，但是有MO 的回歸Pettitte與黑田固守輪值，加上新來的希臘走路之神與健康的Gardner。 Finally, the Orioles didn't do much this winter, but as we saw last year, we can't count them out despite a shaky rotation. 最後，金鳥沒特別做出補強，但仍不能小瞧他們，就算他們的輪值不太穩固，去年還是上演了大驚奇。 There's a lot of upside in this division, but there's also a lot question marks. The Rays are not blown away by any team on paper here and could win the division, take a Wild Card, or even miss the playoffs altogether again; there's just so much uncertainty all around. However, barring big injuries, this team should be right in the thick of things throughout the year. 光芒在美東仍有許多優勢，但同樣也有許多問題。光芒並不會被任何球隊嚇倒，他們可以贏得分區冠軍、外卡，或是一起放寒假；美東充滿了許多不確定因素。然而，遠離痛痛是這支球隊在接下來的一年的重要課題。很久沒翻外電了，也很久沒排版了...如有錯誤或刺眼的地方請多糾正。:) -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 36.233.206.5 ※ 編輯: qazwsdf 來自: 36.233.206.5 (03/12 15:02)