[外電] 對牛棚三位投手的想法

看板Rays作者srysry (瀟湘夜雨)時間12年前 (2013/05/02 14:22)推噓6(6推 0噓 1→)

留言7則, 7人參與討論串1/1

資料來源：http://ppt.cc/kT0n 此篇會略翻，有興趣還是仔細看全文，同樣有錯還請指正 Last year, the Rays fielded one of the best bullpens in recent history. Fernando Rodney set the ERA record, Jake McGee posted the lowest FIP in Rays history (1.81), Wade Davis' seamlessly transitioned to his new role, and Joel Peralta was his normal reliable self. Altogether, the bullpen compiled a 2.88 ERA, struck out over a batter per inning, and walked less than three per nine innings . 去年牛棚的豐功偉業，例如：McGee投出光芒史上最低的FIP，Rodney、Davis、Peralta 都是值得信賴的投手 Heading into this season, we knew we should manage our expectations. Bullpens are volatile, and even a bullpen with a solid core of relievers can implode on a moment's notice. For instance, the shape of the bullpen right before the start of the 2012 season was a mess. The closer, Kyle Farnsworth, went down with an injury, Jake McGee struggled the year before, Wade Davis was new to relieving, and Fernando Rodney was a complete reclamation project. It turned out pretty well. Meanwhile, a 2009 bullpen straddled with high expectations failed miserably. 這邊牛棚的多變性，2012年一開始的牛棚也是狀況很糟，但還來卻繳出驚艷的成績，但是 2009年的牛棚卻是以非常的失敗收尾。 However, this year's bullpen has far under performed even the most conservative projections. According to fWAR, the Rays bullpen has pitched below replacement level this year, costing the team .1 wins. Overall, the ERA/FIP for the bullpen is sitting at 4.26/4.24.* The majority of the blame can be placed in the hands of Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee, and Fernando Rodney. Here are my thoughts on their seasons so far: 根據fWAR顯示光芒今年的牛棚表現是低於可替換選手投出的成績，目前的ERA/FIP 4.26/4.24 ，這數據只統計到星期一，也就是對皇家災難性的後援成績，還沒列入討論，目前這樣的成績主坦是以下三位：Kyle Farnsworth、Jake McGee和Fernando Rodney。 *Stats are through Monday, so it does not account for the bullpen's disastrous Tuesday. Kyle Farnsworth Kyle Farnsworth re-signed with the Rays this off-season despite interest from several other clubs. The Rays closer in 2011, Farnsworth earned the reputation of a reliable reliever from 2009-2011 thanks to the increased usage of his cutter. Once strictly a flamethrower, Farnsworth learned to mix in offspeed pitches, giving hitters a look that differed a steady diet of his heavy fastball. Kyle Farnsworth 2013被光芒重新簽下，在09-11年的成功，主要是成功的使用他的 cutter，學會混合這樣的武器也讓他的直球效果更加顯著。 Even with the addition of cutter, Farnsworth depended on his fastball/sinker, which averaged around 94-96 mph. He would pitch off of it, maximizing the effectiveness of his cutter and slider. The cutter would come in at hitters like a fastball, but break away at the last moment. Batters would expect 96, only to see an 89 mph offering break on them before they had the chance to adjust. Farnsworth使用他的直球/sinker，球速可達94-96間，cutter具有看似直球但最後位移的不同，89的速度讓打者不好適應。 Last year, Farnsworth's velocity dipped a tick or two, most likely due to his elbow issues. Even though his ERA and FIP regressed, he still found success and missed bats; his main issue was his control (4.67 BB/9). 去年Farnsworth的球速下降1-2，可能是肘傷的因素，連帶影響到很多數據，尤其是他的 control(投進好球帶的能力)，不理想的BB/9。 This year, fans hoped a healthy Farnsworth would provide stability in the back of the bullpen. Instead, Farnsworth has been a mess. In 5.1 innings this year, he has an 8.44 ERA. He has yet to retire a batter on strikes while giving three batters a free pass to first base. Given his success over the past four years, it seems logical to assume he will bounce back. However, a deeper look reveals plenty of concerns. 今年應該是Farnworth健康出賽得一年，似乎能期待他有過去的好成績，但目前所繳出的投球成績是如此得不理想。 His fastball velocity so far this year has averaged around 92 mph, while his sinker has hovered at the 90 mph mark. A recent history of elbow injuries and his increasing age both suggest that the velocity may be gone. His peak fastball velocity this year is only 94.97, a far cry from the triple digits he once touched. 他的直球目前均速92，sinker 90上下，受傷與年齡老化的影響，是否推測他的球速已經回不來，今年最快的球速是接近95，沒有過去接近三位數的火球。 The lack of velocity would not be such an issue if it were not for his struggles. For his career, batters have come up empty on about 22.27% of their swings at his fastball. This year, that rate is a dismal zero; batters have yet to whiff at is fastball. Additionally, the whiff/swing rates on his cutter and his slider are both significantly down, each at least 12% lower than their career figures. 根據之前的結果統計，直球幾乎無法造成揮空，過去還能造成打者揮空，連帶滑球、 Cutter的揮空率也來到平均以下。 Based on his prior productivity, Farnsworth deserves a longer look to see if his velocity can creep back up closer to its normal range. If his velocity is still absent around a month from now, he is a strong release candidate. 所以Farnsworth的重點是否能回到過去的球速，若繼續維持現在的表現，他可能會是一個牛棚釋出的選手。 Jake McGee There tends to be a familiar pattern of fan reactions when Jake McGee pitches. When he is doing well, fans tend to laud him for his overpowering stuff. When things go bad, they tend to blame it on his lack of an off-speed pitch. I think the blame is a little misplaced. As last year taught us, McGee doesn't need a quality off-speed pitch to succeed. As I showed earlier this year, his fastball is one of the best in the major leagues. But when you lack a quality secondary offering to fall back on, the margin for error is smaller. Batters know a fastball is coming, so command, movement around the zone, and throwing quality strikes is imperative. McGee具有非常優異的火球stuff，所以一般常會歸罪到他是否缺乏變化球來掩護。作者並不這樣認為，即使缺少好的第二球種，相對就要有好的command（控制球投在好球帶且打者難打得位置）他就足以成功。 McGee's struggles so far boil down to one thing: fastball command. Last year, when McGee absolutely dominated hitters, he moved his fastball around the zone and threw strikes when he needed to. This resulted in lots of strike-outs and few walks. 所以作者認為McGee要找到他的直球command，這是他去年成功的關鍵。 When a one pitch pitcher gets behind in the count, the batter will have a huge advantage. That has been Jake's problem this year. Last year, McGee threw the ball in the zone 53.5% of the time. This year, he has hit the zone only 46.3% of the time. The percentage of times batters are swinging has dropped from 54.4% to 46.9%. Batter's aren't making more contact with his pitches in the zone; moreover, all of his contact stats are similar to last year. With two strikes last year, batter's put the ball in play 20.77% of the time. This year, they are putting it in play 19.35% of the time. It is true that batters are fouling off instead of whiffing at pitches more often with two strikes this year, but the difference is not drastic. 今年McGee投進好球帶的比率下滑，造成打者揮棒的比率也下滑，但是如果投到兩好球後所造成的結果，則今年與去年相去不遠。 Consider this: batters had 78 ABs against McGee last year in a two or three ball count. Of those at bats, 22% resulted in hits. This year, McGee has had 13 ABs in two or three ball counts. Batters are getting hits off of him 23% of the time in those situations. When you fall behind in the count, you are going to struggle. In order for McGee to succeed, he needs to command his fastball. When he does that, the walks will go down and (hopefully) the hits will follow suit. 作者再強調有好的直球command，可以期待McGee還有好的表現。 Fernando Rodney Of the three relievers, Rodney is in the most unique situation. He isn't a young, emerging reliever like McGee nor i she an older, proven pitcher on the decline like Farnsworth. Instead, he is a complete enigma, a reliever whose Achilles heel was bouts of wildness yet mysteriously found command in a Rays uniform, where success was quick to follow. No sane person expected a repeat of last year's record setting 0.60 ERA nor his 1.81 BB/9. Most expected a solid year from him, one that would cement his status as a valuable reliever yet fall short of elite closer territory. Rodney是一個獨特的個案，他並不像McGee年輕，但他也不像Farnsworth可能成績在衰退，因為他去年投出鬼神的成績。 Things have not gone according to plan so far. Rodney is walking batters left and right, he is blowing games, and balls in play are more often than not in the air. This has caused many fans to say things such as "Rodney allowed five earned runs last year, yet has already allowed four this year." Therein lies the problem. It is not fair to compare this Rodney to the 2013 Rodney. The 2012 Rodney that is in the record books will never again take the mound. Instead, we should compare Rodney to the pre-2012 version and hope that he pitches above those standards. 基本上Rodney 的成績可以分為兩大區塊，2012以前的投球成績，2012的投球成績，那麼今年的投球的成績往往是處於兩者之間。圖表就請參考原始網頁。 As the chart shows, Rodney excelled in every category in 2012. Unfortunately, it looks like Rodney has reverted to his 2009-2011 form in many of the areas. While his contact% is down (good), batter's are swinging at less pitches outside of the zone (bad). His zone contact percentage is very similar to 2009-2011's. 根據圖表的分析，很多數據都逐漸傾向回到過去的成績表現。 It is still early, but his showing so far has been discouraging. On top of a mediocre process, the results have been downright ugly. Giving up an exuberant amount of line drives and walking far too many batters is certainly not commendable. 儘管現在的時間說結果還可能還太早，但是現階段的成績真得不太理想。 If I had to offer my opinion on how each would fare going forward, I would predict that Farnsworth will continue to struggle and be replaced by Josh Lueke, McGee will rebound, and Rodney will be closer to his 2009-2011 form than his 2012 form, causing him to fall in the pecking order. But that is just one man's opinion, so take it with a grainpound of salt. Bullpen's are fickle, and unfortunately for the Rays, it looks like this year's pen may be quite a bit worse than last year's. 作者的推論是Farnsworth可能回不去，被Lueke(3A投手)所取代，McGee會回到之前的水準，Rodney則是會趨向過去水平，照這樣的分析似乎今年的牛棚很難回到去年的成績。 -- -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 111.240.237.46 ※ 編輯: srysry 來自: 111.240.237.46 (05/02 14:45)