[農場] AFL入選新秀–投手

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間12年前 (2013/08/31 16:19)推噓2(2推 0噓 0→)

留言2則, 2人參與討論串1/1

原文：http://ppt.cc/rXDd When we think of fall baseball, there’s only one thing that crosses our minds: the postseason. That certainly makes sense–it’s baseball on the biggest stage with a championship on the line. But the playoffs isn’t the only baseball going on in the fall. There is also the Arizona Fall League, and while the teams that win and lose are essentially meaningless, the players involved could end up helping their team win in the other type of fall baseball the following year if their development goes as planned. While the Rays play in the postseason (we hope), eight Rays prospects will take the field in the Arizona Fall League. And among those eight are some of the most talented players in the organization and several players with a chance to make an impact before we know it. Let’s go player by player and break down the Rays’ AFL representatives. 對於關心棒球的人們來說，秋天最大的盛會莫過於季後賽。這很理所當然，因為全美最棒的幾支球團正在這個舞台上競逐冠軍頭銜。但這並不是秋天唯一的棒球活動。Arizona Fall League（亞利桑那秋季聯盟，AFL），雖然球隊勝負不是這麼重要，不過參與其中的球員都有潛力在未來的秋天登上最高舞台，為球隊在貢獻一己之力的新秀。就在光芒征戰季後賽的同時（我們希望），有八位來自光芒的新秀將會拿到前往Arizona 的機票，而這八位球員有些是天分出眾，有些有機會成為黑馬綻放光芒，讓我們來分析一下這幾位代表光芒前往AFL 的新人吧！ ------ Mike Montgomery, LHP (Durham) The expectations have shifted drastically for Mike Montgomery is recent seasons. Once hailed as the next ace of the Kansas City Royals, Montgomery entered his first season in the Rays organization in 2013 just trying to come up with a baby step in the right direction. At the very least, Montgomery has done just that. His 4.60 ERA is not so impressive, but it has been miles better than his 5.69 ERA in 300.1 innings between 2011 and 2012 (including a stint in Double-A). Montgomery’s control has been iffy at times as he has managed a 6.8 K/9 and a 4.2 BB/9, but he has done a better job keeping his pitches down, resulting in a 0.7 HR/9 and a 46.3% groundball rate. Montgomery is 24 now and we’re almost surely past the point where he can be a topflight major league starter. But with enough progress in the AFL, Montgomery making starts for the Rays next season is certainly in play. 這幾年我們對Mike Montgomery 的期待大幅的下滑，這位曾經被視為皇家隊下一位王牌的新秀，今年在光芒開啟了一段嶄新的旅程，用嬰兒學步的節奏嘗試走在正確的道路上。ERA 4.60並不出色，但比起前兩年主投300局5.69的ERA，已經有長足的進步。Montgomery的控球有時不太穩定，每九局三振6.8人次，保送4.2位打者，但他可以將球投進好球帶下緣，每九局只被打出0.7支全壘打，46.3%的滾地球比率就是證明。24歲的Montgomery幾乎可以確定錯過了他成為大聯盟頂尖投手的時機，但只要在AFL 有長足的進步，明年要在大聯盟先發是可以預期的。 Montgomery throws a fastball in the low-90's that he is finally starting to command, but his best pitch is his changeup, which he sells with great arm action and outstanding late downward movement. The Rays had Montgomery start throwing his changeup more left-on-left and a little less against right-handed batters as he hopes to develop his other pitches to match it. The issue with Montgomery has always been his breaking balls. He never really took to a curveball so he has messed around with a slider and a cutter hoping to find that dependable pitch. The Rays have decided to stick with the cutter in the mid-80′s and see if Montgomery can harness that to finally give him a second out-pitch behind his cutter. Montgomery’s lack of that consistent breaking ball at this point limits his potential, but he still could be a number three starter in the major leagues if he improves his cutter just enough to put it in the back of hitters’ minds. His upside isn’t what it used to be, but a number three starter is nothing to scoff at–especially for a player that was the throw-in as part of the James Shields trade. Montgomery有一顆90 mph出頭的速球，並漸漸能控制進壘角度，但他最棒的球種是變速球，這個球種來自於優異的揮臂機制，並且有很明顯的下沉軌跡。光芒要求他在面對左打者時增加這顆球種的比例，在面對右打者時則減少這個球種的頻率，藉此增加用其他球種來挑戰打者的機會。Montgomery的問題在於變化球的使用，由於始終沒有掌握曲球的投球訣竅，他透過混搭滑球和80 mph中段的卡特球，期待能從中找到值得依靠的配球模式。光芒決定今年秋天持續磨練Montgomery的卡特球，然後觀察他在這個情況下能否讓這個球路成為決勝的球種。缺乏穩定的變化球限制了他的潛力，但只要他把卡特球磨練到足以讓打者感到威脅，就有機會在大聯盟成為三號先發。潛力不如以往，但如果能養成三號先發也沒什麼值得可惜的，畢竟他在James Shields 的交易案裡，不過只是配菜的角色。 ------ Grayson Garvin, LHP (Charlotte) Grayson Garvin is exactly the type of pitcher the Arizona Fall League is meant fall. Garvin, 23, was one of the Rays’ supplemental picks in 2011 and underwent Tommy John Surgery in the middle of last season, limiting him to just 24.1 innings this season. In the Arizona Fall League, Garvin will make up some of the balance. Garvin, a 6’6〃 lefty coming out of Vanderbilt (like one David Price) features a low-90′s fastball with sink (although his command hasn’t come back yet after Tommy John), a plus changeup that he throws to batters off both sides, and a slurvy breaking ball that he still hopes to refine. Garvin just needs some innings, and while progress on regaining his command and improving his slider would be optimal, all the Rays really want is for him to stay healthy and pitch his way to Double-A for next season. Garvin has the upside of a number three starter and maybe even a number two if his slider develops dramatically. In the AFL, it will be time for him to start proving that his potential is attainable. Grayson Garvin的類型在Arizona Fall League並不少見，23歲的 Garvin是光芒在2011年選秀會上的以第一輪補償選秀選中的球員，去年季中動了Tommy John手術，使他本季只出賽了24.1局。Garvin有機會在 Arizona補足缺少的投球局數。這位來自 Vanderbilt大學，6'6"的左投手具備90 mph出頭的速球且有不錯的下沉軌跡（雖然手術後控球還沒回來），水準之上的變速球可以攻擊打者的內外角，變化球則還有改進空間。Garvin只是需要更多出賽機會，重新找回控球，最好還能改善他的滑球，光芒對他的期待就是保持健康，明年在AA出賽。Garvin具備成為三號先發的潛力，如果滑球有顯著的進步，有機會成為二號先發。AFL就是他證明自己天分最好的機會。 ------ Merrill Kelly, RHP (Durham) If you had said before this year that Merrill Kelly would have a good enough season that the Rays would send him to the Arizona Fall League, people would look at you like you were crazy. Kelly was coming off a mediocre season even after moving from starting to relieving, and all the indications were that he was going nowhere. But following Kelly’s huge breakout season, a spot on the AFL roster has been given to him and a spot on the Rays’ roster at some point next season is not out of the question. Kelly, 24, has delivering a strong season between Double-A and Triple-A, going 13-10 with a 3.61 ERA, a 6.3 K/9, a 3.7 BB/9, and a 0.4 HR/9 in 26 starts, a relief appearances, and 152 innings pitched. His strikeout rate has jumped to 7.6 per 9 in 78.1 Triple-A innings. Kelly, a slim 6’1〃, 170 right-hander, throws his fastball primarily in the 88-90 MPH range with good late life and he is starting to get a better feel for commanding it. The pitch that gives him a chance at a big league future, though, is his changeup, which he sells with great action and also gets good fade on it when he’s going well. Kelly’s breaking ball is slurvy and still needs plenty of work. Kelly is unlikely to be a starter at the next level, but with a deceptive delivery, fastball velocity that will play up, and his great changeup, he could be a great right-on-right middle reliever who isn’t blown away by lefty hitters either. Especially with a strong Arizona Fall League, Kelly could make his way into the Rays’ bullpen by the end of 2014. 如果在球季開打前說Merrill Kelly今年的表現足以讓光芒送他到AFL去磨練，其他人八成認為你瘋了。 Kelly去年的表現很平庸，就算從先發移往牛棚仍舊沒有明顯進步。但隨著本季強勢的爆發，他為自己贏得了前往 Arizona的機票，甚至有機會在明年的某個時間點成為光芒球員名單上的一員。24歲的Kelly今年在AA和AAA都有出賽紀錄，在26場先發，1場後援出賽中，交出13勝10敗，每九局三振6.3人次，保送 3.7 位打者，每九局僅被擊出0.4發全壘打。在3A的78.1局中，每九局三振進步到7.6次。這位6'1"，170磅的纖細右投手，直球落在88-90 mph附近，進入本壘板有不錯的軌跡，控球也慢慢在進步。能支持他在大聯盟生存的則是他的變速球，不錯的出手動作，狀況好時這顆球種甚至會產生消失的錯覺。Kelly 的變化球還需要磨練，他不太可能在下個層級繼續扮演先發的角色，隱匿的出手、努力成長的球速和優異的變速球會幫助他成為優秀的中段後援。如果今年秋天的表現優異， Kelly有機會在明年年底為光芒牛棚注入活力。 ------ Matt Ramsey, RHP (Charlotte) Injured players can be very valuable commodities in the draft. If you can find one who showed promise before he got hurt and a good chance of coming back strong, you have a chance to turn a later-round pick into an absolute steal. Matt Ramsey, the Rays’ 19th round pick in 2011, is off to a great start as he tries to do just that. After undergoing Tommy John Surgery after he was drafted, Ramsey was able to make only a handful of appearances even in 2012. But in his full-season debut for the Low-A Bowling Green Hot Rods this year, Ramsey managed a 2.42 ERA, a 12.5 K/9, a 3.5 BB/9, and a 0.3 HR/9 in 20 appearances and 26 innings pitched. And while Charlotte has not treated him as well (3.13 ERA but just a 20-14 K-BB in 23 IP), his stuff speaks for itself. Ramsey, a 23 year old 5’11〃, 205 right-hander, features electric stuff, throwing a mid-90′s fastball with late life and a sharp 11-to-5 curveball. Now the question is whether he can locate his pitches enough to live up to his potential as a late-inning reliever and maybe even a closer. Ramsey got off to a late start because of his injury, but with type of stuff, he has the ability to get on the fast-track to the major leagues. Ramsey will labor immensely in the Arizona Fall League hoping to get a hold of his stuff, and if he does, he could be in the Rays’ bullpen before we know it. 對一位過去有著不錯表現的受傷球員來說，如果球團看好他在能夠從傷病中復出，那麼能在靠後的輪次選到他，就會被認為是選秀會上的一大搶劫。Matt Ramsey 是光芒在2011年第19輪選中的球員，在歷經Tommy John手術後，Ramsey只能在2012年獲得有限的出賽機會。但今年在1A的完整球季，20場出賽，26局的投球中交出ERA 2.42 ，每九局三振12.5人次，保送3.5位打者，每九局僅被擊出0.3支全壘打。雖然升上高階1A後表現有些下滑（ 23局，ERA 3.13，K/BB 1.47），但球質是貨真價實的。這位 23歲5'11"，205磅的右投手，出色的球質是他最大的特色，速球來到90 mph中段，進入本壘板後會產生位移，另外還有一顆11點鐘往 5點鐘銳利軌跡的曲球。現在的問題是他的控球是否足以支持他成為一位後段局數的後援投手，甚至是終結者。Ramsey因為傷病的關係起步較慢，但只要他能維持這樣的球質，要快速升上大聯盟並非難事。 Ramsey在 AFL必須努力證明自己的球質，如果做到了，他成為光芒牛棚一員的時間將會超乎我們預期。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.148.143