[農場] 2013 Prospects in Review: Catcher

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間11年前 (2013/11/19 23:57)推噓5(5推 0噓 11→)

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Link: http://ppt.cc/DbbL Catcher The catcher profile can be summed up in one word: defense. Since catching is the most demanding defensive position on the spectrum, defense at the catcher position is imperative. Top prospects rarely come in the catcher profile; many excellent hitters are moved off the position to protect their legs (Wil Myers, Bryce Harper) while many traditional athletes prefer a different defensive home. Catchers also have the lowest success rates of all prospects, and many of the best catchers in baseball right now were never top prospects. 對捕手的要求可以簡單用一個字說完：防守。自從捕手成為場上防守要求最高的守位，防守就成了一位好捕手最重要特質。頂尖新秀很少被當成捕手養，許多出色的攻擊型捕手新秀會為了保護他們的腿被換防到其他守位（Wil Myers, Bryce Harper）。和其他位置新秀相比，捕手新秀的養成率也是最低的，而歷史上出色的捕手有許多也從未被視為頂尖新秀。 ------ 24. Oscar Hernandez (19 Y.O. in Short Season Class-A and Class-A) 192 PAs, .227/.286/.364, 6.8 BB%, 13.0 K%, 6 HR, 12 XBH When Oscar Hernandez first came stateside, everyone was eager to see how his bat would perform. In 2012, he hit fairly well (110 wRC+) as an 18 year old in rookie ball. Promoted to Hudson Valley this year with a three game stint in Bowling Green, Hernandez didn't hit quite as well (96 wRC+ in Hudson Valley), but he showed why there is much enthusiasm for his future, as evidenced by his #2 ranking in the New York Penn League by Baseball America. 當Oscar Hernandez第一次來到美國，每個人都想見識他的火力。'12年在Rk的打擊成績（110 wRC+）以一位18歲的年輕新秀來說還不錯。今年升上A-，也在 A出賽了 3場，Hernandez打得不算相當好（96 wRC+），但他展現了值得對他未來抱持期待的理由，Baseball America在季末評選將他選為所屬聯盟第2號新秀。 Defensively, Oscar Hernandez has the makings of being an elite defender in his prime, possibly one of the best in baseball. His arm rates as plus to plus-plus currently, and he throws accurately as well. The arm shows in his caught stealing rates; he threw out 16 of the 28 runners with Hudson Valley and the sole runner with Bowling Green. A 59% caught stealing rate is terrific for a catcher. Hernandez is athletic behind the plate, blocking pitches well for his age, and he has shown a desire to become an excellent framer of pitches. His athleticism shows in his stolen bases as well, as he stole nine bases and was caught only once. While his season wasn't great offensively, he still showed his potential with the bat. His strikeout rate was low, he showed signs of power (six home runs this year, and a .163 ISO in 2012), and he walked at a modest rate (it was better in 2011-2012). 防守端，Oscar Hernandez 展現成為出色防守者的潛能，也許會是棒球史上最棒的防守者之一。目前臂力在60到70分之間（滿分80分，plus-plus 70分，plus 60分），準度也夠。這也展現在阻殺率上；整季對手28次嘗試盜壘，抓到16次， 59%的阻殺率對捕手來說近乎完美。 Hernandez在本壘板後的運動能力相當出色，以同齡新秀來說，擋球做得很棒，接捕也很出色。運動能力也展現在盜壘上，嘗試9次只被抓到1次。雖然整季打擊表現不算好，但依舊展現打擊上的潛力。低三振率，有點長打火力（今年6發全壘打，去年ISO.163），保送率也保持的不錯（前兩年更好。）個人補充： Hernandez應該是光芒近幾年自家農場出產最棒的捕手新秀。來到美國兩年BABIP 一直偏低，今年更只有.232，但整體OPS還是在所屬聯盟水準之上，K%和BB%的跳動也不大，是他比過去拉美新秀更值得期待的原因。期待明年他離開打者墳場A-進入攻守平衡的 A會有更出色的表現。我認為他的前景有機會比游騎兵的Jorge Alfaro更好。 ------ Curt Casali (24 Y.O. in Advanced Class-A and Double-A) 329 PA, .316/.404/.488, 11.9 BB%, 14.9 K%, 10 HR, 28 XBH Few prospects in the system raised their stock more dramatically than Casali. Acquired by the Rays from the Tigers for Kyle Lobstein (who also had a very good year), Casali carried the reputation of a glove-first catcher. In 2013, he dispelled that image. He had a 116 wRC+ in Port Charlotte, and a 216 (!) wRC+ in Montgomery. 很少有新秀上升的幅度像Casali這麼驚人。去年用Kyle Lobstein（今年也表現很好）從老虎換來的Casali是個以防守聞名的新秀，但今年他完全破除了人們對他過去的印象。他今年在A+的wRC+ 116，在AA的wRC+ 216。 The most remarkable aspect of Casali's season was how well rounded and complete it was. He hit for a high average, walked at a very good rate, struck out at a below average rate, and hit for above average power. His CS% was a little low, but his reputation is that of a good defender. About the only negative was his age; however, catchers tend to develop more slowly, so it is not much of a concern. This season wasn't out of nowhere, as he hit for a .792 OPS in 2012. If he continues to hit next year, he has the upside of an everyday catcher. Casali整季做得最出色的地方在於他表現得非常全面，高打擊率，高上壘率，低三振率，就連長打能力都在水準之上。阻殺率偏低，但他的防守評價還是相當高。最大的缺點在於他偏高的年齡；不過捕手的養成本來就會比較慢，所以這也不是什麼值得擔心的事情。他在本季的表現不是沒來由的，去年 OPS就高達.792。如果明年可以維持這樣的打擊表現，他有成為固定先發捕手的潛力。個人補充：從雙贏的角度，Lobstein換Casali可能是去年小聯盟最成功的交易之一。前者補強了老虎農場最缺的先發左投，今年的成績（FIP 3.06）更是老虎今年高階農場最出色的先發之一；Casali則無庸置疑成為光芒高階農場最被期待的捕手，今年交出的打擊成績在光芒高階農場更是無人能出其右。回到Casali，今年誇張打擊成績的背後是高達.354的BABIP（生涯.308），LD%也高於生涯平均，如果不是打擊型態有調整，其實運氣成分滿高的。但就算打擊率成績小幅下修，K%和 BB%就固定先發捕手的要求來說也夠了。球季結束後Casali本來被光芒安排去打AFL，但只打一場就因肘傷離隊，由Maile取代，如果傷勢不太嚴重，明年 Casali結束春訓後會從AA出發，季中視情況升上 AAA。當然如果春訓成績夠亮眼，直接從AAA也不無可能（目前AAA捕手真空…），除非明年打擊崩盤，不然明年球季結束肯定能進入40人名單（Rule V）。 ------ Nick Ciuffo (18 Y.O. in Rookie League) 169 PA, .258/.296/.308, 5.3 BB%, 23.7 K%, 0 HR, 7 XBH The top pick by the Rays in the 2013 draft, Nick Ciuffo got off to a rough start in professional ball. Ciuffo doesn't project as a top hitter, but scouting reports indicated he has above average to plus power. However, he didn't hit a single home run in pro ball and smacked only seven extra base hits. His strikeout and walk rates also need improvement. If his short stint with the GCL Rays was of any indication, Ciuffo has some work to do with the bat. However, catching prospects with good tools receive plenty of leeway in that regard. 今年光芒的選秀狀元— Nick Ciuffo在職業賽場的初體驗表現平平。他不會是頂尖打者，但球探報告認為他的長打能力有60分。但他在職業賽場還沒有出現全壘打， K/BB也需要加強。從小樣本來看，Ciuffo的打擊還要再加油。不過有天份的捕手新秀總是值得等待。 ------ Chris Gimenez (30 Y.O. in Triple-A) 375 PA, .224/.350/.305, 15.2 BB%, 16.8 K%, 3 HR, 19 XBH Partnered with Jesus Flores for much of the year was Chris Gimenez. While many fans clamored for Gimenez to make the Rays opening day roster over Jose Lobaton due to a solid late season stint with the Rays and a good season in Durham, the Rays wisely elected to send him to Triple-A. While he showed a very good K/BB rate, Gimenez hit for a low average and poor power, leading to a 93 wRC+. While he is a fine 3rd catcher to stash away in Triple-A, Gimenez's chance as a consistent major league player likely has passed. 因為去年季末和整年在AAA的好表現，今年開季前，許多球迷認為Chris Gimenez 比Jose Lobaton更有資格進入開季名單。但光芒睿智的選擇把他送回 AAA。雖然K/BB 表現得不錯，Gimenez的打擊率和長打率都不怎麼樣，整季wRC+ 93。雖然他還是一位可以丟在AAA的不錯三號捕手，但我想他站穩大聯盟的時機已經過了。 ------ Mayo Acosta (25 Y.O. in Double-A) 262 PA, .197/.259/.321, 8.0 BB%, 23.3 K%, 7 HR, 15 XBH After moving across three levels in 2013 to fill in holes with different teams, Acosta spend the entire 2013 season with Montgomery. Acosta is not a serious prospect; his 2012 stands out as an outlier. He wasn't terrible before 2012 though, and he isn't incredibly old, so if he can bounce back after a poor 2013, there is a chance he could catch on as a second or third catcher. 去年跑了三個層級補上各隊因為傷病造成的捕手空缺，Acosta今年都待在AA。他並非值得注意的新秀，但去年的成績相當不錯，去年之前的成績也沒到很糟，也不算大齡新人，如果他可以從今年的低潮反彈，有機會成為二號或三號捕手。 ------ Lucas Bailey (22 Y.O. in Advanced Class-A) 149 PA, .180/.221/.230, 4.1 BB%, 29.1 K%, 1 HR, 5 XBH Once a favorite of prospect followers, Bailey is quickly falling out of the picture. Repeating Port Charlotte, Bailey was limited to only 43 games courtesy of a shoulder injury. In the time he did play, he was a disaster. His peripherals went even further backwards, and his one saving grace in the past several years, his power, deserted him. Though he has a strong arm, Bailey needs to show that his bat has promise for him to stick around. 曾經是關注新秀的球迷眼中的寵兒，Bailey用很快的速度跌出大家的視線，再次從A+出發，Bailey因為肩傷只出賽43場。但就算上場比賽，他的表現也是一場災難。各項表現都在退步，連過去幾年曾經賴以為生的長打能力都沒了。雖然臂力還是很強壯，但Bailey需要證明自己的打擊。 ------ Jake DePew (21 Y.O. in Advanced Class-A) 230 PA, .223/.274/.261, 6.5 BB%, 17.0 K%, 1 HR, 6 XBH Drafted in the 9th round of the 2011 draft, DePew took an overslot deal to forgo his scholarship to Louisville. Since signing, he has failed to hit, and in 2013, the Rays sent him to Port Charlotte as a stop gap measure. His 2012 performance in Hudson Valley (.541 OPS) certainly didn't warrant the skip of a level, but Bailey's shoulder injury necessitated it. DePew unsurprisingly struggled, hitting for a meager .535 OPS. If the Rays decisions this past year are any indication, DePew is viewed more as an organizational player than a serious prospect. '11年第9輪，光芒用高於建議簽約金的價格把他從Louisville大學搶過來。簽約後他在打擊上陷入掙扎。今年光芒把他丟到A+暫時頂一下捕手的空缺。去年在A-的打擊表現（.541 OPS）不足以讓他跳級，但Bailey的肩傷讓他不得不提早升級。毫無意外的，DePew打得很掙扎，OPS是慘淡的.535。從今年的操作來看，光芒只是把他當作一位填補空缺的小聯盟球員，而不是一位值得認真栽培的新秀。 ------ Luke Maile (22 Y.O. in Class-A) 407 PA, .283/.351/.402, 10.1 BB%, 13.3 K%, 4 HR, 32 XBH While many of the Rays catching prospects are defense-first players, Maile is the opposite. In college, scouts questioned his defense, though it is worth noting that he was statistically excellent defensively this year. He threw out 51% of base runners and allowed only two passed balls. However, it was Maile's offense that caused him to be drafted by the Rays in the 8th round. He hit for a 114 wRC+ this year, showing a very good K/BB rate but not much power (.119 ISO). Maile was a 22 year old playing in the Midwest League, so he was old for a top prospect at the level. While Maile probably won't show up on any top 30 lists, he definitely is in the conversation for the top 50. 雖然光芒許多捕手新秀都強調防守第一，不過 Maile是少數的反例。大學時代，球探就質疑過他的防守，不過他在今年在防守數據上的表現讓這些質疑不值一提。整季51%的阻殺率，只發生2次捕逸。但真正讓光芒在第八輪選擇他的其實是打擊能力。今年wRC+ 114，出色的K/BB，不過沒什麼長打能力（ISO.119）。Maile已經22歲了，在所屬聯盟數於大齡新秀。雖然 Maile可能不會進入Top 30，但他值得在Top 50找到自己的位子。 ------ Justin O'Conner (21 Y.O. in Class-A) 439 PA, .233/.290/.381, 7.1 BB%, 25.3 K%, 14 HR, 31 XBH When Justin O'Conner was selected by the Rays in the 2010 draft, many fans were happy that the team managed to nab the top prep catcher in the draft. However, O'Conner has failed to live up to the hype, though the past two years may be signs that he is improving. His 25.3 K% was the lowest of his career, and the 14 home runs are the highest. Scouts also still are encouraged by his defensive tools, saying he has a plus arm (56 CS%) and is good at blocking pitches. At the same time, there is still plenty of work to be done. Though he posted the highest batting average of his career this year, a .233 mark is still very low. Additionally, his strikeouts prevents him from tapping into his plus power consistently. They have made him a bit of an all or nothing hitter, as nearly half of his extra base hits went for home runs. Still, O'Conner is young and is a catcher, so there is still time for him to regain his top prospect status. 當光芒在'10年選中Justin O'Conner時，許多球迷都認為他們選到了最棒的高中捕手。雖然過去兩年都在進步，但表現卻不符合當初的評價。三振率 25.3%是生涯新低，14轟是生涯新高。防守能力也提高不少球探的評價，60分的臂力（阻殺率 56%），擋球也做得很好（這邊我有點疑惑，事實上O'Conner今年蹲捕的62場比賽，發生22 次捕逸）。但他還有許多功課要做，打擊率來到生涯新高，但.233還是非常低，除此之外，偏高的三振率讓他無法穩定的釋放水準之上的長打能力，當半數長打變成全壘打的同時，他會有點像"all or nothing"的打擊者（簡單說，不是全壘打就是三振… 。）。O'Conner依舊是年輕的捕手，還有很多時間讓他重新回到頂尖新秀的討論裡。個人補充：如果要為目前的O'Conner找一個模板，我想沒有人比藍鳥隊的J.P. Arencibia更合適，出色的長打火力和臂力，但揮空率和防守同樣令人擔心，真要說有哪裡不同，那就是 Arencibia是大學打者，有更多比賽經驗，而O'Conner高中時是投打雙棲，在捕手之外還去守游擊，相對來說養成時間也會比較長，至少今年的成長讓他看起來還不算太令人失望。對O'Conner來說，另一個好消息是光芒新聘請的農場打擊指導就是前藍鳥的打擊教練Chad Mottola，除了他執教過Arencibia（'09年藍鳥農場打擊指導，'10年AAA打擊教練），另一個幫助是Mottola師承Dwayne Murphy，是當年把 Jose Bautista調整成全壘打王的重要推手，希望有他的幫助O'Conner可以在打擊上大躍進。附上一段O'Conner今年的打擊影片： https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJfM9iCbvpQ

------ Omar Narvaez (21 Y.O. in Short Season Class-A) 162 PA, .267/.311/.333, 4.9 BB%, 13.0 K%, 0 HR, 8 XBH Oscar Hernandez's catching partner in Hudson Valley, Omar Narvaez was excellent at throwing out base runners; he nabbed ten of the twenty who tried to steal. At the plate, Narvaez was above average at making contact and hitting for an average. However, he rarely walked and hit for little power. The Rays did get him a fair amount of playing time even with Hernandez on the team, so it may be an indication that they see something beyond the numbers in him (or they were just trying to keep Hernandez rested). Oscar Hernandez在A-的輪替夥伴， Omar Narvaez在阻殺跑者上做得很棒，對手20 次嘗試，他抓到10次。水準之上的擊球能力和打擊率，但不太選保送也缺乏長打能力。即使和Hernandez同隊，光芒也給了Narvaez可觀的上場時間，所以也許球團在他身上看到了發展的潛力（或者只是試著讓Hernandez得到更多的休息。） ------ Jesus Araiza (20 Y.O. in Rookie Ball and Class-A) 205 PA, .279/.363/.324, 9.8 BB%, 15.1 K%, 0 HR, 7 XBH While Araiza's name rarely pops up when discussing prospects, he performed solidly this year. As a 20 year old in Princeton, Araiza hit for a high average and showed a good walk rate. Unfortunately, he displayed very little power, hitting zero home runs and collecting only seven extra base hits. The low minors are crowded with catchers, so consistent playing time could be an issue. 雖然Araiza的名字很少被拿出來討論，但他今年的表現非常亮眼。這位今年在Rk 出賽的20歲新秀交出了不錯的打擊率，在選保送上也做得不錯。不幸的，他的長打能力不太理想，整季沒有全壘打，長打也只有 7支。低階農場捕手有很多，穩定的出賽時間會是他在養成上需要考慮的問題。 ------ Taylor Hawkins (19 Y.O. in Rookie League) 139 PA, .171/.259/.252, 7.9 BB%, 26.6 K%, 1 HR, 8 XBH Taylor Hawkins is another example of an above slot toolsy high school draft pick that has failed to pan out. His draft report indicated that he had plus power, which led to 74 home runs in high school, one short of the national record set by Jeff Clement. So far in pro ball, that power has been absent. He hit only one home run this year, his first in pro ball, and has has 10 career extra base hits. None of the other tools have stood out either. Hawkins is a catcher and he has good raw power, but he needs to start showing it in games. Taylor Hawkins是另一個高於簽約金的高中潛力新秀，但目前這筆投資還沒獲得回報。球探報告指出他有出色的長打能力，在高中時期以74發全壘打領先群雄，差點就可以追平Jeff Clement創下的全國紀錄。但到目前為止，他的長打能力遺失了。今年只有 1發全壘打，也是他職業生涯首轟，生涯的長打支數不過10支。同時他也沒展現其他部分的天分。Hawkins 是一位有長打能力的捕手，但需要將它展現在比賽中。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.235.118

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