[農場] 2013 Prospects in Review: First Base

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間11年前 (2013/11/20 21:35)推噓4(4推 0噓 6→)

留言10則, 3人參與討論串1/1

Link：http://ppt.cc/AVOB First Base My last two reviews have also been corner positions, so I've gotten used to writing about players that are supposed to hit for power. The speed, defense and arm tools are almost irrelevant here, but when a player does have the defensive ability of James Loney, of course it's a plus. Not everyone fits the big hit and power tools mold, but with nowhere else to go on the defensive spectrum for many of these players, their bat better carry them. 接下來我要介紹的是邊角內野手，這些球員都被期待擁有長打火力，但如果他們有 James Loney等級的防守能力，那當然也會被視為水準之上的新秀。並不是每個人都有關鍵一擊和長打能力，但如果有限的防守能力限制了移防的可能性，那就只能期待他們的打擊帶他們到最高殿堂了。 Only one top 30 prospect entering the season played a plurality of games at first base, and he probably is capable of playing elsewhere on the diamond. I can't say for sure if anyone else is going to jump up to that list this off-season, but one may be close. 只有一位Top 30新秀出現在這個守位，而且他其實可以移防到別的位置。我不確定有沒有新秀的行情會在今年擠進Top 30，但有一位相當有機會。 ------ 28. Patrick Leonard (20 Y.O. at Class A) 493 PA, .225/.305/.345, 8.5 BB%, 23.9 K%, 9 HR Acquired in the James Shields trade as kind of the unknown guy in the four player haul, Leonard struggled for much of his first season in the Rays organization. He's a third baseman, but he played almost entirely first base this year with Tyler Goeddel holding down the hot corner. He hit 14 homers in 62 Appy League games last year, but he was down to nine in 123 this year. 在James Shields交易案獲得的包裹中，Leonard是相對默默無名的收穫，而他在光芒的第一個賽季也相當掙扎。其實他是三壘手，但因為A有Tyler Goeddel鎮守三壘的關係，本季守一壘的機會比較多。去年在Rk的62場比賽敲出14發全壘打，但本季在 A只有9轟。 Leonard clearly struggled making the transition to full-season ball, but he did improve in the second half. His first half slash line of .207/.291/.290 improved to .242/.315/.399. Although his walk rate fell from 9% to 8.1% and his strikeout rate rose from 22.9% to 25%, the Rays were probably encouraged by the uptick in power. He's playing in Australia this winter, and the extra reps down there could help him prepare to play for Charlotte as a 21 year old next year. Leonard 在面對完整球季的考驗上陷入掙扎，但在下半季慢慢有調整回來。上半季的打擊三圍是.207/.291/.290，下半季進步到.243/.315/.399。雖然保送率從9.0% 退步到8.1%，三振率也從22.9%進步到25.0%，但光芒依舊為他在長打上的進步感到振奮。今年冬天他會去澳洲打冬季聯賽，額外的出賽機會可以讓他為明年在A+的賽季做好更充足的準備。 ------ Cameron Seitzer (23 Y.O. at Double-A) 579 PA, .268/.380/.360, 14.0 BB%, 16.9 K% Despite winning the Southern League home run derby, Seitzer does not have the power to profile at first base. He did hit 16 home runs as a sophomore at Oklahoma, but that pop disappeared when the new BBCOR standards in college came into play. He then hit 11 home runs with Princeton in his first 64 professional games, but he only has 10 in the two seasons since. 雖然贏得所屬聯盟的全壘打大賽冠軍， Seitzer還是沒有展現太多一壘手需要的長打火力。大二曾敲出16發全壘打，但NCAA採用新版BBCOR（Bat-Ball Coefficient of Restitution，球棒反彈係數）標準後，長打能力就消失了*。他在Rk的前64場職業比賽，64場送出11轟，但接下來兩年只有10轟。註：幾個月前NCAA針對新制 BBCOR造成球員打擊表現下滑的問題進行討論，主要是因為在打擊率和長打率都下滑的情況下，會影響得分方式，所以NCAA官方已經決定後年改用縫線較平的球，希望能解決這項問題。 He does have a patient approach that allows him to get on base and complement his decent feel for gap to gap contact. He did hold his own with Montgomery despite skipping over Charlotte completely. He has the arm to play a position besides first base but not the athleticism. 打擊相當有耐心，有不錯的上壘能力，加上把球打到外野空隙的技巧不錯，讓他看起來沒有因為跳級而掙扎。他的臂力符合其他守位的標準，但運動能力還不夠。個人補充：光芒在選秀會選擇一壘手的次數本來就不高（通常是游擊手或投手連發XD），加上這幾年光芒選秀的一壘手在AA就被宣布被養死的還不少（近期的有 Mike Sheridan （'08 5rd）和Philip Wunderlich（'10 12rd）），因此 Seitzer算是相當少數的成功案例，雖然沒有足夠的長打火力，但火力輸出還算穩定，如果AA整體 OPS偏低和跳級，Seitzer明年應該會有更好的打擊表現。比較需要注意的是防守，今年在AA一共發生了11次失誤，如果想循 James Loney 路線升上大聯盟，這是他目前應該努力的方向。 Seitzer有個有名老爸，就是前皇家打擊教練，目前藍鳥打擊教練Kevin Seitzer 。過去Kevin就是高打擊率、高上壘率、低長打率的野手（生涯 .295/.375/.405），多少也影響了 Cameron的打擊型態。有趣的是，他們連生涯發展都很相似，同樣在第 11輪被選中，同樣只花三年就升上AA（Rk->A->A+，連年紀都一樣 XD），只是 Kevin 是三壘手，對長打能力的要求較低，這也是 Cameron在發展上最需要克服的問題。今年在全壘打大賽奪冠是不是說明其實他有足夠的原始力量，只要調整打擊型態就能破繭而出呢？就讓我們明年拭目以待吧！ ------ Vince Belnome (25 Y.O. at Triple-A) 533 PA, .300/.408/.446, 15.8 BB%, 20.5 K%, 46 XBH The Rays acquired Belnome over the off-season from San Diego for minor league pitcher Chris Rearick, and they got a player that should reach the majors at some point in his career. After battling injuries his last two seasons in the Padres system, he stayed healthy and posted a slash line, and he was able to do it outside of the hitter's paradises that were his A-Advanced, Double-A and Triple-A leagues with San Diego. His power comes in the form of mostly doubles, but he makes good contact, works the count and gets on base. 光芒去年休賽期用小聯盟左手後援投手Chris Rearick跟教士隊換來Belnome，他們認為他一定能在生涯的某個時刻在大聯盟找到自己的位子。過去兩年都在傷病中掙扎的Belnome今年保持不錯的健康狀態，同時在離開教士農場（A+, AA, AAA都是打者天堂）後交出不錯的打擊三圍。長打能力大多表現在二壘安打上，但他有很不錯的擊球能力、選球和上壘能力。 Belnome offers a little more flexibility in the field than Anderson which could be a huge separator between the two. It's difficult if not impossible to find a positive report about his play at second or third base, but if he can fake his way at those spots, maybe he could be a bat-first man off the bench. He typically has some big platoon splits (as a lefty) and doesn't have the look of the typical major leaguer at 5'11 and about 200 pounds, but if he keeps hitting, maybe he'll get a shot. Belnome 在場上的機動性很小，以二壘或三壘手來說，這樣的打擊成績幾乎是無可挑剔的，但如果他無法勝任這個守位，他最多就是板凳上的代打者。典型的左殺， 5'11" 200磅的身材也讓人很難將他和大聯盟選手聯想在一起，但如果能維持這樣的打擊成績，他還是有機會在大聯盟找到自己的位子。 ------ Alejandro Segovia (23 Y.O. at Class A-Advanced) 436 PA, .281/.376/.457, 10.1 BB%, 15.1 K%, 14 HR, 37 XBH An established member of the FreeZo All-Star team, Segovia had another very good season at the plate, although he hit one fewer home run than last year despite accumulating over 150 more plate appearances. He maintained his strong plate approach with a walk rate over 10% and putting the ball in play regularly. He suffered a concussion after being hit by a pitch during the season, but he hit just fine after coming off the DL for the last two months. Segovia再次交出不錯的成績單，雖然打席比去年多了150個，但全壘打比去年來得少。他保持穩定的保送率，也可以把球送進場內。季中因為觸身球腦震盪，但從傷兵名單回來的兩個月交出很不錯的表現。 While he continued to hit at a higher level, his value was still hurt by move from catcher to first base. The bar for his bat is now set much higher, but maybe he can regain some of his lost power getting out of the FSL next season. If I'm interpreting the rules correctly, he could be ticketed for minor league free agency this week. 僅管他在更高層級也有不錯的打擊表現，但他的價值還是因為從捕手移防一壘而下滑，對打擊要求也更高，但也許離開A+後可以重新展現他的長打火力。 ------ Jeff Malm (22 Y.O. at Class A-Advanced) 467 PA, .239/.308/.391, 7.7 BB%, 20.6 K%, 14 HR, 36 XBH Malm has been on the fringe of the organization's top 30 prospect list for a few seasons now, but his bat hasn't taken the necessary step forward to really break out. Coming out of high school, he was expected to be a high average player that can use all fields with questionable power, but the opposite has been true as a professional. 幾年前Malm曾經是Top 30邊緣的新秀，但他的打擊並沒有如預期的爆發。高中時期，球探對他的長打能力的意見不一，但都認為他會是一位高打擊率，可以把球送到每個角落的打者。但到了職業賽場卻完全相反。 14 home runs is a career high, but he's gotten pull happy and is a career .248 hitter. He has struck out in over 20% of his plate appearances for the last four years, and he doesn't seem to be the same player that tied the high school record for career hits as an amateur. He has the arm to play left field but not the athleticism. 14發全壘打是生涯新高，但太愛拉打，生涯打擊率也只有.248，過去四年三振率都超過 20%。和選秀前打出平高中安打紀錄的那個新秀不是同個人，他有臂力防守左外野，但運動能力不夠。 ------ John Alexander (20 Y.O. at Short-Season Class A) 248 PA, .215/.246/.292, 3.6 BB%, 19.4 K% Drafted in the eighth round in the big 2011 draft, Alexander still hasn't been able to translate his athleticism to on-field production. He had a .870 OPS getting his feet wet in the GCL in 12 games his first year, but he's gotten worse since. The strikeout rate isn't overwhelmingly poor, but the walk rate is. He seems to be swinging at a lot of pitches and not making good contact while doing it. With results like this, it's hard to imagine him being ready for a full-season league next year. He hasn't played a game anywhere besides first base in his career. 2011年第8輪選秀，Alexander仍然沒有把他的運動能力轉換到賽場上。第一年在 GCL的12場比賽交出OPS.870的成績，但接下來就每況愈下。三振率不算太糟，但保送率就不理想了。出棒積極但是與球的接觸卻不理想。這樣的表現很難想像他明年會準備好迎接完整賽季的考驗。生涯沒有守過其他守位。 ------ Travis Flores (20 Y.O. at Rookie/Princeton) 194 PA, .179/.284/.333, 10.8 BB%, 27.4 K%, 7 HR After being drafted by the Rays in the 11th round of the 2010 draft, Flores missed 2011 and 2012 with injuries. Missing two seasons certainly doesn't help his timing at the plate, especially for players with pitch recognition issues like Flores. He has impressive raw power and was tied for second on Princeton in home runs, but his strikeout rate shows he has a lot of work to do. Just staying on the field is probably a positive for him at this point. He's limited to first base defensively, so he'll need to start making better contact. 2010年第11輪被光芒選中後，Flores在'11年和'12年都因傷沒有上場。錯過兩個賽季明顯對養成一點幫助也沒有，特別是像Flores這種有球路判別問題的新秀。他有令人印象深刻的長打火力， 7發全壘打在所屬聯盟並列第二，但過高的三振率顯示他還有很多功課要做。就目前來說，能上場就是好消息。他的守位被限制在一壘，所以他需要在擊球上做得更好。個人補充：再不回來都快忘記他了……XD。 Travis Flores 是第四屆全國高中生全壘打大賽的冠軍得主（各州高中全壘打大賽冠軍齊聚的盛會，Flores前一屆的全國冠軍是BAL的Chris Walker，後一屆是CHC的 Dan Vogelbach。農場的Hunter Lockwood(TX Rep.)和Flores(AZ Rep.)曾同場(Trop. Field)較勁），長打火力絕對是貨真價實的，但當時球探報告就指出這是他唯一的能力。過長的揮棒軌跡、偏高的揮空率、球路辨識都需要進行修正。今年Flores的 BABIP是偏低的.198，換個角度想，目前的打擊表現應該有顯著的上升空間，另外他在球季初的K%其實只有20%左右，如果最後10場吞下12K的表現是因為太久沒參與正式比賽造成的疲軟，其實是有可能救回來的。另外他在保送率的部分表現得不錯，但攻擊速球本來就是他的強項，到了更高層級對多樣球種變化的適應也很值得觀察。拿下Power Showcase Champion的影片： http://vimeo.com/8870138 ------ Alexander Simon (20 Y.O. at Rookie/Gulf Coast League) 230 PA, .293/.354/.370, 8.3 BB%, 21.7 K% Simon came away with the Rays' Dominican Summer League MVP in 2012, but he found that hitting in the U.S. would be a bit more difficult. He did manage a .293 average (with a .384 BABIP), but he only had 11 extra base hits and no home runs through the entire season. In his three year career, Simon has actually played more games at third base, but all of them came in the DSL prior to 2013. His decent plate approach helped him post an OPS well above the GCL average, but unless he can find some power or prove he can sustain himself as a high BABIP player, I don't see him remaining above average for long. Simon是去年光芒在DSL的年度最佳新秀，但到了美國似乎又是另一回事。打擊率 .293（BABIP .384），但整季只有11支長打，沒有全壘打。三年的職業生涯裡鎮守三壘的機會居多，但這都是在 DSL的事情。不錯的進攻模式讓他的 OPS高於聯盟平均，除非他可以展現更多長打能力，或是證明自己是個高 BABIP類型的打者，我不認為他的成績可以一直維持在平均之上。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.6.244