[農場] 2013 Prospects in Review: Second Base

看板Rays作者csy1911 (招財貓)時間11年前 (2013/11/23 13:05)推噓1(1推 0噓 9→)

留言10則, 2人參與討論串1/1

Link：http://ppt.cc/jgCh Second Base There was only one second base prospect in the pre-season top 30, and I'm inclined to believe that will be the case for 2014 too. In a way, it's a position for runts. Prospects rarely start out at the position. Maybe they don't have the arm strength for the left side of the infield or the bat to profile at a corner position. There are mold breakers that make it as a pure second baseman, but the odds are against those players. 只有一位二壘新秀進入季前Top 30，我有預感明年依舊是如此。某種程度上，這個守位的新秀都比較矮小。除非沒有足夠的臂力防守內野左側，或沒有足夠的打擊能力擔任邊角野手，大部分新秀很少從這個守位出發。他們之所以能成為純二壘手，是因為他們都有特別的才能，但同時也有部分是有缺陷的。 Power and arm strength aren't tools usually present at the position. Since it's an up the middle position, teams do value defense, but they're more willing to live with a bat-first player here than at shortstop. 長打和臂力不是他們所必備的能力。因為是中線防守者，球團會關注他們的守備能力，但對於打擊的期待會比游擊手來得高。 ------ 22. Ryan Brett (21 Y.O. at Class A-Advanced and Double-A) 311 PA, .305/.360/.460, 7.4 BB%, 13.2 K%, 29 XBH, 26 SB (78.8%) After finishing the balance of his PED suspension to start the season, Brett played more like the hitter people saw in 2011. His walk rate dipped a little more, but he cut back down on his strikeouts and found some of his missing power. He was effective stealing bases as usual, and impressive performance with Charlotte earned him a late season trip to Montgomery. His walk and strikeout rates were similar, as was his ISO. A huge difference was his BABIP; that dropped 130 points after the promotion, and his average fell with it. 結束禁賽後Brett開始了新賽季。今年他重現了'11年出色的打擊表現。保送率略為下滑，但三振率也降低了，並展現遺失的長打火力。像過去一樣，Brett 是個有效率的盜壘者。在A+出色的表現讓他贏得在季末晉升AA的機會。升級後保送率和三振率都維持得差不多，但 BABIP掉了.130，打擊率也下降了。 Brett finished a stint in the Arizona Fall League last week but didn't really perform well. He walked more than he struck out, but he finished with an OPS of just .582. AFL stats aren't indicative of anything in the future, but reports from the season pin him as a scrappy player with no tremendous tools (BA, $). Players like that can work, and his plate approach and base running will help him. Brett在AFL的表現不太理想。保送比三振多，不過 OPS只有.582。AFL的數據不代表未來的發展，但季末的球探報告說他只是一位鬥志旺盛的球員，卻沒有太多工具。這樣的球員有機會在大聯盟佔得一席之地，他的打擊型態和速度會為他帶來許多幫助。個人補充： Brett屬於High BABIP的打者，不過今年在A+高達的.377的BABIP真的不太正常，所以我對他今年的打擊表現持保留態度。值得注意的是，去年他也有季末下滑的問題，原本認為是他吸食Meth的副作用，但現在看起來也有可能是體力還不足以負荷漫長的完整賽季。速度很棒，有單季 40+盜壘的潛力，DRaysBay甚至認為他有機會成為光芒未來的第一棒，防守上不論是範圍或是控制失誤都做得很棒，他現在要做的就是保持穩定的成績，明年球季結束40人名單一定有他的位置。 ------ Robby Price (25 Y.O. at Double-A) 491 PA, .226/.318/.286, 9.8 BB%, 8.8 K% Price had been a solid performer throughout his entire minor league career, but his lack of tools finally caught up with him this year with Montgomery. He continued to walk more than he struck out, as he has his entire career, but with no power or speed, he loses all offensive value with a plummeting average. 15 extra base hits was a career low despite only being one home run shy of a career high. His approach and ability to play third base may keep him around a little longer. Price 的小聯盟生涯都表現得很穩定，但缺乏足夠能力的他終於在AA遇到了困難，一如過去的表現，他的保送依舊比三振來得多，但沒有足夠的長打能力和速度，一但失去穩定的打擊率，他在進攻端就完全失去價值了。打擊型態和可以鎮守三壘也許能讓他的生涯更長一點。個人補充： Price 是滿容易被忽略的新秀，一來是因為年紀，二來是他的上限介於板凳球員和小聯盟球員之間，定位上比較尷尬。在AAA有個打擊更好，K%更低的Figuera都沒受到青睞，即使Price防守更為出色，但前景其實不太樂觀。好消息是，今年他的BABIP 低於生涯平均不少，明年還是有機會反彈，另外今年除了二壘、三壘，也嘗試防守左外野，就功能性來說，他還是有機會升上大聯盟。 ------ Hector Guevara (21 Y.O. at Class A-Advanced and Double-A) 432 PA, .252/.296/.364, 4.6 BB%, 9.0 K%, 12 SB (80%) Repeating the Florida State League with Charlotte, Guevara showed a bit of pop for a middle infielder with six home runs in his first 60 games. It earned him a brief promotion to Montgomery where he walked at a higher rate than he ever has, but he made even less contact and saw the power disappear. He was sent back to Charlotte to finish the season, but he finished his time there with an on-base percentage under .300. 今年再次從A+出發，Guevara在60場比賽揮出6發全壘打，對二壘手而言，這是不錯的長打成績。升上AA後他的保送率來到生涯新高，但在擊球和長打上卻明顯下滑。季末他又回到A+，但最後他在A+的上壘率還是低於.300。 Guevara hit for some power in the VSL in 2009, but until this year with the Stone Crabs, it had been nowhere to be seen in the U.S. He could use some of it because despite low strikeout rates throughout his entire career, he hasn't even been a .250 hitter in his career and hardly walks. He doesn't add much in the base running department, and it seems like he'll have to rely on defensive flexibility to continue his professional career. 2009年Guevara在VSL展現過一些長打火力，但到今年為止，他來到美國還沒有什麼表現。生涯打擊率從未高於.250，也不太選保送，他還能留在農場體系主要還是因為低三振率。盜壘能力並不出色，看起來他必須透過增加守位多樣性才能延長他的職業生涯。 ------ Tommy Coyle (22 Y.O. at Class-A) 552 PA, .278/.399/.405, 16.5 BB%, 14.1 K%, 40 SB (83.3%) Tommy Coyle is not as highly regarded as a prospect as his brother Sean with the Red Sox, but it's hard to not notice his production in 2013. He didn't hit for power, but he pretty much did everything else, including play good defense at second base. His decent hit tool, patient approach and speed made him a great option for the top of the Bowling Green lineup. Tommy Coyle不像他在紅襪的弟弟 Sean Coyle的評價這麼高，但他今年的表現很難令人忽視。除了長打能力，他幾乎把每件事都做到了，包括出色的二壘防守。合格的打擊能力、耐心的打擊型態和速度，讓他成為球隊最適合的第一棒人選。 The usual caveats for older players performing in leagues apply to Coyle here. A player from an elite college conference should feel comfortable in the Midwest League, and he's going to have to prove himself at higher levels. Some defensive flexibility would help him, but he can only play second base. 需要注意的是，Coyle 在所屬聯盟屬於大齡新秀。這位來自頂尖大學聯賽的球員在這個聯盟表現的很棒，但更重要的是他必須在更高層級證明自己。增加守位多元性可能對他的發展有幫助，但他只能守二壘。個人補充： Tommy的弟弟，Sean Coyle是紅襪在'10年砸了1.3M簽下的高中生大物（當年紅襪是28順位，卻砸了10.66M在選秀會上…），僅管身材矮小，長打爆發力非常驚人，有單季25+全壘打的潛力。除了身材和守位，他們兄弟倆完全是不同類型的打者，Tommy 是打跑守三拍子球員，也許沒辦法把球不斷送出場外，但有穩定的中長程火力。比較麻煩的問題是他左殺傾向（生涯OPS R/L .845/.607），今年這個現象有好一點，如果能克服這個關卡，我想他未來會是先發打線的人選。 ------ Ariel Soriano (22 Y.O. at Short-Season Class A) 293 PA, .267/.310/.414, 4.1 BB%, 17.1 K%, 23 XBH, 18 SB (75%) In his third year in the U.S., Soriano had a career year since he arrived here from the Dominican Republic. He continued to be an effective base runner, but he also nearly doubled his career home run total with six, tied for the Hudson Valley lead with Oscar Hernandez. Overall, the slash line might not seem especially good, he slugged over 70 points higher than the league average in the offense-suppressed New York-Penn League. 第三年來到美國， Soriano打出了生涯代表作。依舊是有效率的盜壘者，但全壘打支數接近生涯的兩倍，追平 Oscar Hernandez今年在A-的全壘打數。整體來說，這樣的打擊三圍並不是十分出色，不過他的純長打率比聯盟平均（NYPL，打者墳場）高出了.070。 His plate approach could clearly be a concern moving forward though. His career high walk rate was 7.5% way back in the Dominican Summer League in 2010, and more experienced pitchers could take advantage of his aggressiveness. He'll also be 23 years old entering full-season ball next year. 打擊成績值得我們在未來的日子給他一些關注，不過保送率從生涯最高的7.5%一路下滑，遇到有經驗的投手肯定會吃虧。明年滿23歲的他將會迎接第一個完整賽季。 ------ Coty Blanchard (21 Y. O. at Rookie/Princeton) 196 PA, .213/.325/.287, 13.3 BB%, 16.3 K% Blanchard was a two sport athlete in college, so the Rays were hoping to get more upside from the typical 15th round pick. Of course, that came with more rawness too. His plate approach was probably a bit better than expected, and although his .611 OPS isn't impressive at all, it was actually only 10 points worse than his platform season at Jacksonville State. Maybe now focusing on baseball can get him on track. Blanchard 大學是雙棲運動員，光芒希望能在第15輪盡可能獲得更多的天分。當然，他也不夠成熟。打擊表現比預期中好多了，雖然.611的 OPS不是很亮眼，但這只比他在過去在大學兼職打棒球的時候低了.010，也許更專注在棒球上可以讓他回到軌道上。 A lot has to come together for him though. He's not going to hit for much power, so he needs to do a better job making hard contact to get singles and doubles. Despite solid athleticism, he doesn't really steal bases, but it does allow him to play the middle infield. Tools-wise, he could probably play shortstop, but in college as well as the Appy League, he was clumsy. He committed 10 errors in 50 games with the Princeton Rays. 有許多問題是他需要解決的，因為沒有足夠的長打能力，所以必須在擊球上做得更確實。雖然運動能力很棒，但沒有反應在盜壘次數上，不過站中線內野沒有太大問題，說不定還可以站游擊。但不管是在大學還是在小聯盟，他的防守表現都顯得有些笨拙。今年50場比賽發生10次失誤。 ------ Kean Wong (18 Y.O. at Rookie/Gulf Coast League) 194 PA, .328/.377/.390, 5.7 BB%, 11.3 K%, 7 SB (87.5%) Wong's .767 OPS was easily one of the Rays' top performing 2013 picks. His .767 OPS was over 100 points better than the league average. He'll have to become more patient at the plate, but that's not unusual for an 18 year old hitter. While his walk rate was a bit low, he's not a hacker and frequently put the ball in play. One weakness he has at the plate is the lack of power. He's already filled out at 5'11 and 190 pounds and probably won't ever end up as more of a gap hitter. Wong .767的OPS是光芒今年選秀球員中表現最好的，比聯盟平均還高了.100。他在打擊區還需要多點耐心，不過這對一個18歲的孩子來說並不容易。雖然保送率有點低，但可以頻繁的把球打進場內。最大的缺點是沒有長打能力。5'11" 190lbs的身材還有長肉空間，有機會養成具備中長程火力的打者。 He was billed as an advanced hitter in pre-draft scouting reports, and he lived up to that. He hit the ground running as a professional, and the Rays could send him straight to Bowling Green which they usually don't do with high school players. Wong could also play third base in the future, but he didn't at all in his pro debut. 選前的球探報告就指出他已經是個平均水準的打者，他也在職業賽場證明了自己的實力。將球打進場內後從打者轉換成跑壘的能力已經有職業水準，雖然並不常見，但光芒可以考慮把他直接送到A（最近一位是Josh Sale），Wong未來可以防守三壘，不過今年沒有嘗試紀錄。個人補充： Kean的哥哥，Kolten是目前所有球隊農場裡評價最高的二壘手。而許多球探報告都指出，Kolten在Kean這個年紀的表現並不如今年參選的Kean。這也是為什麼許多選秀專家認為光芒在這個順位偷到一位不錯的新秀。目前樣本數還沒多到可以肯定Kean 跟他哥一樣是屬於High-BABIP的打者，就算是，他今年BABIP .374也不在合理範圍內（Kolten小聯盟生涯.331），但如果考慮到他是在比較偏投手的 GCL，明年的成績可能有機會保持甚至更好。直接丟A是冒險了點，明年能站A二壘的新秀也不在少數，我想先經過延長春訓的考驗，再做下一步考量會是比較安全的作法。 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.235.118