[外電] Getting to know Ryan Hanigan

看板Rays作者ajburnett (The go-to guy)時間11年前 (2013/12/08 12:48)推噓10(10推 0噓 32→)

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Getting to know Ryan Hanigan Ryan Hanigan 是誰？ by Chad Dotson December 06, 2013 At any given moment, there are somewhere around 1,200 players on 40-man rosters around Major League Baseball. That means (a) my math skills are impeccable, and (b) there are a lot of stories of how professional baseball dreams became reality. 在任何時候，大聯盟30支球隊的40人名單都填滿了差不多1200個名字，這代表著(a)我數學很棒，(b)夢想成真的背後都有著一大堆的故事。 One of the best of those stories belongs to Ryan Hanigan. Hanigan, of course, was traded this week from the Cincinnati Reds to the Tampa Bay Rays (in a three-team deal also involving Arizona), whereupon he signed a three-year, $10.75 million dollar contract. If you are what we might term sabermetrically-inclined, you’ve probably been aware of him for a while. For the rest of you, here’s what you need to know: Ryan Hanigan is the best .198-hitting, 33-year-old catcher on planet earth. Ryan Hanigan的故事要算是當中最棒的一個了。當然，Hanigan在這週稍早才從紅人被交易到了光芒(在一場包括響尾蛇在內的三方交易)，光芒跟他簽下了3年、10.75M的合約。如果你屬於那些所謂數據派的人的話，大概早留意他好一段時間了。至於這些人以外的人呢，有件事你們需要知道：Ryan Hanigan是地表上最棒的打擊率.198的33歲捕手。 Before I get into the reasons that I think he is likely to earn every dollar of that contract, let’s talk about how Hanigan got here. He made his major league debut in 2007, at the ripe old age of 27. The fact that he made it to the big leagues at all is amazing given that Hanigan wasn’t drafted out of college. 在我告訴你為何我認為他值這份合約中的每一塊錢之前，咱們先來談談Hanigan是怎麼走到現在的。他在2007年首次來到了大聯盟，年齡是已經有點熟過頭的27歲。他能進入大聯盟這件事之所以驚人是因為他在大學時並沒有被選中。 Hanigan played collegiately at tiny Rollins College in Florida. Rollins is an excellent school, known for being the alma mater of Anthony Perkins, Buddy Ebsen, and Mr. Rogers (you’ve probably been to his neighborhood), but it’s not exactly renowned for being a professional baseball factory. Rollins “Tars ” (don’t ask me) to have played in the majors are pretty much limited to 1979 AL Rookie of the Year John Castino and noted former New York Yankee Clay Bellinger. Hanigan大學時期在佛羅里達一間小學院Rollins College打球。Rollins是間傑出的學校，因Anthony Perkins(註一)、Buddy Ebsen(註二)和Mr. Rogers(註三)這幾名校友而出名，但並不特別以出產大聯盟球員而享有名聲。過去Rollins出過的球員差不多就是1979年美聯新人王John Castino和著明前洋基球員Clay Bellinger。 Hanigan played mostly in the outfield for the NCAA Division II school, posting a .359 career average that ranks seventh in the school’s history. It wasn’t enough for big league scouts, however. After going undrafted and performing well in the Cape Cod League, the Reds offered him a free agent contract. Hanigan jumped at the opportunity, and promptly reported to Dayton, Ohio, to begin his career. Hanigan在NCAA第二分區的比賽中多半守外野，生涯.359的打擊率在校史能排上第7名，不過這對球探來說不值一提。落選之後，Hanigan在Cape Cod聯盟(註四)表現得不錯，於是紅人隊提供了他一紙自由球員合約，Hanigan把握住機會，馬上到俄亥俄州的Dayton報到，展開他的職業生涯。 Immediately, he began to display one of the traits that would eventually endear him to Reds fans: the guy just has a knack for getting on base. In his first full minor-league season, mostly spent at Single-A Dayton, Hanigan got on base at a .365 clip, and earned a spot in the Midwest League All-Star game. Two years later, at Double-A Chattanooga, Hanigan hit .321/.418/.405, walking 50 times in 100 games and finishing second in the Southern League in average. He was moving slowly through the system, as most non-drafted free agents usually do, but starting to open eyes. 他立刻開始展現他那討紅人迷喜歡的能力：這傢伙就是有辦法上壘(註5)。在小聯盟的第一個完整球季，Hanigan多數時間都待在A級的Dayton Dragons，繳出了.365的上壘率，還在西南聯盟的明星賽搶下一席。兩年後，Hanigan在AA級的Chattanooga Lookouts打出 .321/.418/.405的三圍，在100場初賽中拿到50次保送，打擊率在南方聯盟排名第二。就像多數非選秀的自由球員一樣，他在農場體系裡爬升得相當緩慢，不過已經逐漸開竅。 (As a sidenote, I first saw him play at Chattanooga. I got a kick out of watching him play, mostly because he didn’t really look like an athlete, but I didn’t think we’d see the day that he’d sign a three-year, multi-million dollar contract in the big leagues. In related news, I’m clearly not a prognosticator.) (這段略翻) He finally got a cup of coffee in 2007, but wouldn’t collect more than 100 plate appearances in a season until his third year in the big leagues. He’s only had more than 300 plate appearances in a season twice in his career, but before 2013, he had developed into one of the most dependable catchers in the league. Hanigan’s reputation, of course, has largely been made on the strength of his defensive prowess. Hanigan在2007年總算有機會一嘗大聯盟滋味，但直到第三個球季前他每季PA都沒辦法破百。打到現在，能突破300PA的球季不過兩次，但在2013球季開始前，他就已經發展成了聯盟最可靠的捕手之一。 Obviously, the defensive metrics for catchers leave much to be desired, but Hanigan grades out well. He’s one of the best in the league at framing pitches, he blocks balls well, and he has led the National League each of the last two years in throwing out baserunners. For what it’s worth, Hanigan scores well on the eye test, as well. There is no one in or around baseball who doesn’t believe that Ryan Hanigan is outstanding behind the plate. 捕手守備數據在評量上顯然還不太能讓人滿意，但Hanigan展現出了很棒的數字。他是手套移位功夫的佼佼者(註6)，擋球能力優秀，而且阻殺能力在過去兩年都是國聯之冠(註7) 。此外，他在視力測驗上也拿到高分。沒有任何棒球人會懷疑Ryan Hanigan在本壘板後方的出色能力。 Hanigan continues to be underrated offensively, and that’s something the Rays haven’t failed to notice. His value at the plate, of course, is almost entirely dependent on his ability to handle the bat intelligently, as he has almost no power (career ISO of .081). What he does, however, he does very well. Hanigan’s OBP over seven big league seasons is .343, and his career walk percentage is a robust 12%. He also makes contact, posting an excellent career strikeout rate of just 10%. Hanigan在進攻方面的能力持續被低估，不過光芒隊沒有看走眼。他在本壘板旁的價值幾乎完全倚賴於他明智的揮棒，而且他幾乎與砲瓦無緣(生涯ISO僅.081)。然而，他在能做到的事情上都表現得非常好。Hanigan生涯七季的上壘率來到.359(註8)，保送率則是相當不錯的12%，也不會打不到球，三振率不過是10%。 On the flip side of that coin, if you are looking for reasons to be skeptical about his future, you don’t have to look far. Hanigan suffered through a nightmare 2013 season, hitting .198/.306/.261, with a 53 wRC+ and a .252 wOBA. The year was marked by two stints on the disabled list (with a strained oblique and a sprained wrist), and Hanigan was never really able to get anything going. A 32-year-old catcher with numbers in decline, and a recent history of injuries? We’ve seen that story before. It doesn’t usually end well. 反過來說，如果你要找理由質疑他的未來，也不用繞太大圈。他在2013球季的表現就是個噩夢，.198/.306/.261的三圍加上53的wRC+和.252的wOBA。球季間他兩度出入傷兵名單( 腹斜肌拉傷和手腕扭傷)，也沒能有些實質上的進步。誰要一名數據下滑的32歲捕手，而且近年還有傷痛史？這已經有前車之鑑，通常下場不會太好。 So why does an analytics-friendly organization like the Rays think Hanigan’s a good enough bet to commit three years to him? Well, first of all, we aren’ t talking about a ton of money, really. Hanigan will earn $2,750,000 next season, and just $3.75 million in the final year of the deal. Even if he’s simply a good defensive backup catcher, Hanigan won’t be breaking the bank. 所以像光芒這種親數據頭的球團為什麼還會認為Hanigan好到值得他們再承諾他三年呢？首先，這不過是點小錢，Hanigan下個球季不過拿2.75M，第三年也才3.75M，就算他只當個板凳守備組，這份合約也不會讓你破產。(註9) There’s reason to hope that 2013 was a bit of an aberration, as well. The injuries, one in April and the other in July, were disruptive, and the wrist injury in particular sapped even further what little power Hanigan possesses. In addition, his BABIP was just .216, well below his career mark of .283, but his walk rate remained high, and his OBP remained serviceable despite the bad luck. If his BABIP reverts to the norm, Hanigan begins to look much more like the player he was in 2012. When you combine that with the great defense, you have a guy who should be a 1-2 win player. In other words, he’ll earn the contract. 此外，也有理由希望2013不過是有點狀況外而已。兩次受傷分別發生在4月和7月，都是突發傷勢，手腕的傷勢還鋸掉了Hanigan那可憐的小砲管。BABIP只有.216，遠低於生涯的 .283，但保送率維持高檔，雖然運氣差但OBP也還過得去。如果BABIP反彈回平均值， Hanigan看起來就比較像那個2012的他，再加上出色的防守，就會是個值1-2勝的球員。簡單來說，就是他值得這份約啦。 The Rays are known for taking chances, but this is more of a low-risk gamble than most people realize. Hanigan’s walk rate will probably drop a bit, since he won’t be hitting in front of pitchers any longer, but he does a lot of things that smart teams value. As Jeff Sullivan noted, Hanigan is “more of a disciplined, contact sort, and he adds value by being strong in the field. He blocks, he throws, and he frames, giving him some of that hidden value that Tampa Bay clearly appreciates.” 光芒隊以把握機會聞名，但這筆投資的風險比多數人所理解的要低不少。Hanigan的保送率大概會掉一點，因為排在他後面打擊的已經不是投手了，但他能做到很多聰明球隊認為是有價值的事情。如Jeff Sullivan所說，「Hanigan是選球和contact好的那一型，加上強大的守備能力。能擋球能阻殺，還可以把壞球移成好球，光芒隊顯然喜歡他這些隱藏的價值。」 Everyone loves the stories of the kids who were underestimated, yet turned out to be stars. Think about Mike Piazza, drafted in the 62nd round as a favor to his father. Or Stephen Curry, who didn’t receive a scholarship offer from a single major-conference school before going on to stardom in the NBA. 大家都愛聽那些醜小鴨變成天鵝的故事。想想Piazza，在第62輪才因為老爸面子被選上；或是Stephen Curry，從沒有分區名校願意提供他獎學金，到躍升為NBA的明星。 Hanigan’s story is even better. He didn’t have a father who was friends with a Hall of Fame manager, or a father who had a sixteen-year career as a professional athlete. He made it by doing a few important things very well. It ’s easy to root for a guy like Ryan Hanigan, as Rays fans are about to discover. Hanigan的故事可能更棒些。他沒有一個跟名人堂總教練是好朋友的老爸，也沒有一個當了16年職業運動員的老爸。藉著把幾件重要的事情做的非常優秀，他才能走到這一步。光芒迷很快就會發現，很難不幫像Ryan Hanigan這種傢伙加油啦。註1：Anthony Perkins，1932-1992，美國演員。註2：Buddy Ebsen，1908-2003，美國演員暨舞者。註3：Fred Rogers，電視節目主持人，節目就叫做Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood。註4：Cape Cod Baseball League(CCBL)，校際夏季棒球聯盟，位在麻州，不少大聯盟球員都來自於此，大聯盟則已提供此聯盟超過40年的金援。註5：Ryan Hanigan的生涯三圍：.262/.359/.343。註6：參考此篇：http://tinyurl.com/mtasgdu 註7：2012：48.5%；2013：45.5%；career：40%。註8：作者看成長打率了。註9：合約內容：14:$2.75M, 15:$3.5M, 16:$3.7M, 17:$3.75M club option -- 短評： Jeremy Hellickson: 學長，救我！ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 114.42.200.108

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