[牛棚] Red Sox bullpen now goes a full 7 deep
原文:http://0rz.tw/b5cKD from http://www.projo.com/
想像一下
把去年牛棚的 Mike Timlin(5.66 ERA) 和 David Aardsma(5.55 ERA)
兩位換成 Ramon Ramirez (2.64 ERA) 和 齋藤隆 (2.49 ERA)
今年的牛棚相當值得期待
Red Sox bullpen now goes a full 7 deep
01:00 AM EST on Friday, January 23, 2009
BY DANIEL BARBARISI (Journal Sports Writer)
Managers and front-office types love to repeat that a team can never, ever
have enough bullpen depth. This year, the Red Sox just might prove that old
adage wrong.
On paper, the Red Sox boast a bullpen top seven that matches up with any in
the American League, and talent waiting in the wings when the inevitable
injuries occur.
In fact, when comparing the ERAs of the seven projected Red Sox relievers
with the projected top sevens for the other American league teams, only Tampa
Bay’s projected bullpen stacks up better.
What makes this group special is how deep the talent goes. While some teams
may have two or perhaps four elite relievers, most are running out one or two
subpar arms at the back end of the bullpen. Based on 2008 statistics, the Red
Sox can expect excellence from each of their projected relievers, a statement
none of the other top teams can make.
In 2008, the Red Sox bullpen ranked seventh in the American League in ERA.
The top five bullpens were the Toronto Blue Jays, the Tampa Bay Rays, and the
Oakland Athletics, New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels.
Boston’s problem last year was bullpen depth. The Red Sox had an excellent
top four group of relievers –– Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Manny
Delcarmen, and Javier Lopez, with a strong half-year from Justin Masterson on
top of that. But the rest of the bullpen was poor. Mike Timlin, David Aardsma
and Craig Hansen all had ERAs well over 5.00 for the season.
Now depth is their greatest asset, and it may allow them to climb the ladder
of the league’s top pens. With Lopez and Papelbon having signed one-year
deals Tuesday, the team’s bullpen appears set, and it is shaping up to be
far superior to the 2008 edition. Replacing Aardsma with Ramon Ramirez (2.64
ERA) and Timlin with Takashi Saito (2.49 ERA), and adding a full season of
Masterson should yield excellent results.
Using the 2008 numbers for the seven projected Red Sox relievers yields a
staff with a combined a 2.75 ERA, which allowed only 1.17 walks and hits per
inning, and struck out 8.5 men per nine innings. All are totals that rank
among the best in the AL.
Those numbers factor in Masterson’s entire 2008 season, both his average
numbers as a starter, and his excellent numbers as a reliever. If only his
numbers as a reliever are used, and his 2.34 ERA, the pen would look even
better.
And the Red Sox have capable reinforcements ready to take over if injuries
strike. The team traded for Wes Littleton, who has a 3.69 ERA in 102
big-league innings, but will probably wait in reserve in Pawtucket.
Fireballing prospect Daniel Bard could also be ready for the majors by
midseason.
Red Sox assistant general manager Jed Hoyer said Tuesday that building depth
in the pitching staff has been a priority for the club.
“I don’t think we have had this much depth in the past,” Hoyer said. “I
think it’s something we’ve learned a little bit through trial and error. We
’ve had some seasons where we got a little bit thinner, and at certain times
it hurt us. Certainly, a priority of ours going into the offseason was to
make sure we had enough depth to get through a whole season.”
Boston’s chief adversaries don’t have that luxury.
The Yankees boast the greatest closer of all time in Mariano Rivera, and
players who have had success, such as Damaso Marte and Brian Bruney. But
their seventh pitcher is expected to be David Robertson, a second-year
pitcher who compiled a 5.34 ERA in 30 innings last year. The seven relievers
they expect to use had an ERA of 3.26, a 1.14 WHIP, and an impressive 9.85
strikeouts per nine innings.
The Rays have a stellar middle-relief crew in J.P. Howell, Grant Balfour, Joe
Nelson and Rhode Island’s Dan Wheeler, but they will fill their seventh spot
with converted third baseman Juan Salas, who had a 7.11 ERA in 6 innings last
year. The projected Rays bullpen had a 2.59 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and 8.3
strikeouts per nine innings.
Of course, both of those teams have aces in the hole who could return to the
bullpen if the situation demands. The Rays have David Price, who impressed
when holding back the Red Sox in the American League Championship Series. The
Yankees have Joba Chamberlain, who has been dominant during his bullpen
stints, but had health problems as a starter. If either pitcher returns to
their teams’ relief corps, they could make good bullpens great ones.
The Blue Jays, Athletics and Angels, the other good bullpens in 2008, have
some excellent pitchers, and some arms who might be better used against
Triple-A pitching. The Blue Jays’ top seven relievers had a 2.95 ERA, and
the Angels. It’s not clear who will take the Athletics’ seventh bullpen
spot.
As the season plays out, the truisms about bullpen depth will probably be
proven right, and circumstances may prove that the Red Sox should have
stockpiled even more pitching. But as it stands now, the Red Sox can expect
one-through-seven competence without having to make a move, a statement their
top competitors can’t make.
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