[紅襪] Spring Preview (Rototimes.com)

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Spring Preview: Boston Red Sox By Ray Flowers January 28, 2009 5:30pm CST http://www.rototimes.com/article/2009/1/Spring-Preview-Boston-Red-Sox It's not often that a team wins 95 games and views their season as a bit of a failure. Given that the city, as well as the organization, thirsts for championships, the Red Sox have made a series of moves this offseason to improve the squad by signing names like John Smoltz, Brad Penny, Takashi Saito and Rocco Baldelli. A full season of health from David Ortiz, as well as a hassle-free season from the club's left fielder (Jason Bay draws about 10 percent of the attention of Manny Ramirez), could easily lead the Red Sox back to October baseball once again. Projected Lineup Projected Pitchers CF: Jacoby Ellsbury SP: Josh Beckett 2B: Dustin Pedroia SP: Daisuke Matsuzaka DH: David Ortiz SP: Jon Lester 1B: Kevin Youkilis SP: Tim Wakefield LF: Jason Bay SP: Brad Penny RF: J.D. Drew CL: Jonathan Papelbon 3B: Mike Lowell SU: Takashi Saito SS: Jed Lowrie C: Josh Bard Position Battles The Red Sox offer one of the most consistent day-to-day lineups in baseball if everyone is healthy. However, health was a big concern last season and constitutes a concern this season as well. To cover in case injury strikes again, the team signed Rocco Baldelli (.263-4-13 in 28 games), formerly of the Rays, to serve as their fourth outfielder in '09. Given the new diagnosis of his illness (channelopathy), everyone hopes that Baldelli will be able to operate at peak efficiency whenever he is called on. Baldelli could face a battle for playing time from the recently re-signed Mark Kotsay (.276-6-49 in 110 games), though Baldelli's talent would certainly present the higher upside for the club. Regardless, this really isn't much of a position battle to speak of, that is unless J.D. Drew suffers another one of his injury-plagued seasons (less than 500 AB in four-straight seasons). Another battle revolves around third base. Mike Lowell, the unquestioned starter when healthy, is continuing to work his way back from hip surgery. He has progressed to swinging off of a batting tee but that is a long ways from suiting up for game action. The team still hopes that he will be ready for opening day, but if he isn't, the most likely scenario would have Kevin Youkilis moving back to third base, leaving first base wide open. With the recent retirement of Sean Casey the battle for that spot, under this scenario, would be between the likes of Kotsay, Jeff Bailey and possibly Chris Carter ... not exactly a murder's row. On the hill, the battle is for the last two spots in the rotation. Tim Wakefield should have one of those spots locked up if his wonky back allows. He has won at least 10 games in six of the past seven seasons and is perfectly serviceable. That leaves a whole host of arms left to battle for the fifth spot. Ideally, Brad Penny (6-9, 6.27 ERA with the Dodgers) would take charge and toss 180+ solid innings, but after last season's abbreviated campaign of just 94.2 innings due to shoulder issues, he is a huge question mark. The Sox also signed another hurler coming off of surgery in veteran John Smoltz (2.57 ERA, 11.57 K/9 in 28 IP). He is hopeful of returning at some point in May, though the team really wants a healthy Smoltz for the playoffs so they will likely take it easy with him. The youngster involved in this battle for starts is Clay Buchholz, who has some filthy stuff, though you wouldn't really know it from looking at his numbers with the Sox (5.56 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 98.2 career innings). He has oodles of talent, but he has been short on execution so far. And don't forget about Justin Masterson (3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 88.1 IP). He will almost certainly work out of the 'pen, but he does have starting pitching aspirations. Breakout Players Being that they have a fairly established lineup of veterans, there are few options for a real breakout star in 2008. The one name that appears to head that list is shortstop Jed Lowrie, though his playing time situation bares a watchful eye given the presence of veteran speedster Julio Lugo. However, the club appears committed to giving Lowrie a shot at running with the starting shortstop role. Lowrie was responsible for some pretty wild swings in batting average last season (month-to-month: .323, .273, .222, .284 and .213), but a .258 average for a rookie isn't all that bad. He could certainly stand to bring some more pop, as he had only two home runs in 260 AB, but the kid can simply light up left-handed pitchers (.338/.409./525). Still, his ceiling is limited, both by his skill level and the presence of Lugo. On the hill the team boasts a series of power arms, each of which could step up to provide some substantial fantasy value in 2009, especially if something were to happen to closer Jonathan Papelbon. Consider each of the arms that follow potential fantasy forces, though again, just like Lowrie, their potential to really break out would appear to be limited, barring injury. Manny Delcarmen: 3.27 ERA< 1.12 WHIP, 8.72 K/9, 2.57 K/BB Hideki Okajima: 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.71 K/9, 2.61 K/BB Justin Masterson: 3.16 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.93 K/9, 1.70 K/BB Ramon Ramirez: 2.64 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 8.79 K/9, 2.26 K/BB Takashi Saito: 2.49 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 11.49 K/9, 3.75 K/BB We would assume at this point that Saito would step in as closer if Papelbon was hurt, but arms like those of Delcarmen and Masterson could certainly become tremendous options if their roles were to increase. Don't Overpay Obviously, you won't want to overpay for Lowell or Drew given their health questions, though Drew was on a pace last season that would have led to a line of roughly .280-26-87-107 over 500 AB. There might also be a tendency for some to overpay for the talent of Baldelli, but be honest when assessing talent and don't merely hone in on the good stories. The cold hard truth is that Baldelli has had only 217 AB the past two seasons and it's been four years since he played in more than 95 games. The big red flag here belongs to Daisuke Matsuzaka. Dice-K went 18-3 last season with a terrific 2.90 ERA, but those wonderful numbers hide a ton of uncertainty. First and foremost, Dice-K saw his BB/9 climb to an alarming 5.05, and there is no way a hurler can have long-term success with a number like that. As a result, his K/BB was a pitiful 1.64, which also includes the fact that his K/9 dropped from 8.84 in '07 to 8.27 last year. More walks and fewer punchouts certainly wouldn't lead anyone to post a 1.50 drop in ERA (his ERA was 4.40 in 2007), though that cause was greatly aided by a far too high LOB% of 81.0. If history is any guide, another effort like 2008 will likely lead to a drastic reduction in his overall performance. Rookie to Watch This club really doesn't have a rookie of note to discuss given the heavy veteran presence. We could list Buchholz here, but technically, he isn't a rookie. Plus, rumors are floating that he mind end up on another club, so even if he is an "of note" kind of guy, it may be in another uniform. Lars Anderson could possibly see some time at first if a series of events occur, but that would be a stretch. Junichi Tazawa, a 22-year-old pitcher from Japan, is another name to remember, though both he and Anderson are long shots - at best - to contribute heavily in 2009. The bottom line is that it will take an injury here or there for any youngster to play a significant role with the club this year. Injury Notes We've already listed the four major questions heading into spring training. 1) Is David Ortiz's wrist fully healed? The answer would appear to be yes. 2) Is Mike Lowell's hip injury one that will preclude him from playing every day? The answer is in serious doubt at the moment, though everyone is expressing optimism. 3) Can John Smoltz drag his weary body to the hill for 20+ starts this season? If he does, look for him to be an extremely effective hurler, though one that requires constant micro-managing. 4) Is Brad Penny healthy, and if he is, can he rebound from the worst season of his career? This call, on both counts, certainly is up in the air. -- ξ 所以我說 ●▃ 這 ╔═╮═╦╮ ∫BJ╯ 就是人生啊 ╠═╮╮║ █》 ╚═╯╰╯ -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 218.166.48.70