[情報] 2009 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox

看板RedSox作者Belladonaa時間17年前 (2009/02/01 09:43)推噓2(2推 0噓 6→)

留言8則, 3人參與討論串1/1

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2009_zips_projections_boston_red_sox/ For my money, this is still the team to beat in baseball. While the Red Sox can't match Tampa's massive stable of young pitching, the team is probably the deepest in baseball overall. Some of the depth will be harder to keep around long-term as the players aren't young and a lot of the pitchers, like Smoltz and Penny, are fliers on pitchers with injury concerns, but there aren't many things that could happen that could really kill Boston's chances in 2009. Even Ortiz "going Hafner" is something the team could survive. Not much else to say; this team is a known commodity and there really aren't a lot of open questions. As an aside, I've started a ZiPS Facebook Group for those that want to get raw projections quicker before the reports are ready for prime time here. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CATCHERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H RBI BB K SB OPS+ THR AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- George Kottaras* c 26 .256 .336 .417 131 465 62 119 62 55 117 1 93 Fr Josh Bard# c 31 .263 .342 .385 88 262 27 69 34 31 48 0 88 Pr FAIR Jason Varitek# c 37 .231 .328 .382 123 411 44 95 52 54 114 1 82 Fr Dusty Brown c 26 .253 .317 .395 85 304 34 77 42 27 75 1 82 Fr POOR Mark Wagner c 25 .235 .297 .374 103 388 41 91 49 32 72 1 72 Vg Luis Exposito c 22 .234 .258 .384 117 479 46 112 57 14 129 1 63 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FIRST BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H RBI BB K SB OPS+ RNG EXCELLENT David Ortiz* dh 33 .286 .395 .562 135 507 96 145 109 91 98 2 143 Pr VERY GOOD Kevin Youkilis 1b 30 .288 .383 .476 146 534 88 154 89 74 111 3 120 Av FAIR Chris Carter* 1b 26 .288 .343 .472 142 545 72 157 86 45 85 3 107 Pr Jeff Bailey 1b 30 .269 .356 .448 131 458 68 123 65 54 106 4 106 Av POOR Mark Kotsay* cf 33 .275 .332 .394 94 360 47 99 50 30 39 3 86 Av Lars Anderson* 1b 21 .250 .319 .393 141 557 65 139 74 56 150 3 82 Fr Keith Ginter 2b 33 .251 .328 .372 113 411 45 103 55 40 76 3 80 Av Gil Velazquez ss 29 .253 .298 .348 73 233 33 59 26 13 46 2 66 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SECOND BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H RBI BB K SB OPS+ RNG EXCELLENT Dustin Pedroia 2b 25 .307 .367 .467 147 584 101 179 90 51 47 12 113 Vg FAIR Jed Lowrie# ss 25 .257 .337 .395 121 443 58 114 61 55 91 3 88 Av Julio Lugo ss 33 .266 .338 .391 111 399 54 106 42 41 79 21 84 Av POOR Keith Ginter 2b 33 .251 .328 .372 113 411 45 103 55 40 76 3 80 Fr Nick Green ss 30 .254 .299 .405 110 370 45 94 48 21 98 4 79 Fr Ivan Ochoa# ss 26 .262 .321 .346 100 324 45 85 26 23 68 11 72 Av Gil Velazquez ss 29 .253 .298 .348 73 233 33 59 26 13 46 2 66 Fr Angel Sanchez ss 25 .254 .300 .327 128 496 70 126 43 30 72 5 62 Vg Yamaico Navarro ss 21 .229 .267 .321 101 414 40 95 43 19 105 6 51 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- THIRD BASEMEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H RBI BB K SB OPS+ RNG VERY GOOD Kevin Youkilis 1b 30 .288 .383 .476 146 534 88 154 89 74 111 3 120 Av AVERAGE Mike Lowell 3b 35 .283 .345 .449 136 508 67 144 83 46 64 3 103 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAIR Jed Lowrie# ss 25 .257 .337 .395 121 443 58 114 61 55 91 3 88 Av POOR Julio Lugo ss 33 .266 .338 .391 111 399 54 106 42 41 79 21 84 Av Keith Ginter 2b 33 .251 .328 .372 113 411 45 103 55 40 76 3 80 Av Nick Green ss 30 .254 .299 .405 110 370 45 94 48 21 98 4 79 Fr Gil Velazquez ss 29 .253 .298 .348 73 233 33 59 26 13 46 2 66 Vg Yamaico Navarro ss 21 .229 .267 .321 101 414 40 95 43 19 105 6 51 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHORTSTOPS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H RBI BB K SB OPS+ RNG AVERAGE ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Jed Lowrie# ss 25 .257 .337 .395 121 443 58 114 61 55 91 3 88 Av FAIR Julio Lugo ss 33 .266 .338 .391 111 399 54 106 42 41 79 21 84 Av Keith Ginter 2b 33 .251 .328 .372 113 411 45 103 55 40 76 3 80 Pr Nick Green ss 30 .254 .299 .405 110 370 45 94 48 21 98 4 79 Fr POOR Ivan Ochoa# ss 26 .262 .321 .346 100 324 45 85 26 23 68 11 72 Av Gil Velazquez ss 29 .253 .298 .348 73 233 33 59 26 13 46 2 66 Fr Angel Sanchez ss 25 .254 .300 .327 128 496 70 126 43 30 72 5 62 Vg Yamaico Navarro ss 21 .229 .267 .321 101 414 40 95 43 19 105 6 51 Av Argenis Diaz ss 22 .226 .263 .290 104 403 38 91 32 20 98 3 43 Vg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORNER OUTFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H RBI BB K SB OPS+ LF RF VERY GOOD Jason Bay lf 30 .278 .375 .510 154 590 115 164 124 89 154 9 125 Pr J.D. Drew* rf 33 .277 .388 .474 102 346 65 96 57 62 72 2 121 Av AVERAGE ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Chris Carter* 1b 26 .288 .343 .472 142 545 72 157 86 45 85 3 107 Pr Jeff Bailey 1b 30 .269 .356 .448 131 458 68 123 65 54 106 4 106 Fr Fr Rocco Baldelli cf 27 .277 .338 .482 40 141 22 39 22 9 32 3 108 Av Av FAIR Ellsbury* cf 25 .287 .345 .403 139 541 88 155 53 43 75 45 92 Vg Vg POOR Jon Van Every* cf 29 .239 .319 .438 115 372 55 89 51 40 145 5 93 Av Av Mark Kotsay* cf 33 .275 .332 .394 94 360 47 99 50 30 39 3 86 Vg Nick Green ss 30 .254 .299 .405 110 370 45 94 48 21 98 4 79 Fr Fr Josh Reddick* rf 22 .248 .280 .397 118 471 54 117 63 21 92 10 72 Av Av Gil Velazquez ss 29 .253 .298 .348 73 233 33 59 26 13 46 2 66 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CENTERFIELDERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name P Age AVG OBP SLG G AB R H RBI BB K SB OPS+ RNG VERY GOOD Rocco Baldelli cf 27 .277 .338 .482 40 141 22 39 22 9 32 3 108 Av AVERAGE Jacoby Ellsbury* cf 25 .287 .345 .403 139 541 88 155 53 43 75 45 92 Av ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FAIR Jon Van Every* cf 29 .239 .319 .438 115 372 55 89 51 40 145 5 93 Fr Mark Kotsay* cf 33 .275 .332 .394 94 360 47 99 50 30 39 3 86 Fr POOR Nick Green ss 30 .254 .299 .405 110 370 45 94 48 21 98 4 79 Pr Josh Reddick* rf 22 .248 .280 .397 118 471 54 117 63 21 92 10 72 Fr * - Bats Left # - Switch Hitter ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ STARTERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ TOP THIRD John Smoltz 42 3.70 9 5 20 19 116.2 116 48 11 29 102 126 Daisuke Matsuzaka 28 3.79 14 9 30 30 178.0 157 75 17 87 176 124 Josh Beckett 29 3.97 14 10 29 29 183.2 178 81 22 45 171 118 Jon Lester* 25 4.09 10 7 27 27 156.1 159 71 13 63 109 114 Justin Masterson 24 4.15 10 8 39 22 138.2 138 64 13 55 85 113 MIDDLE THIRD Clay Buchholz 24 4.48 8 8 28 27 136.2 140 68 15 50 111 104 Michael Bowden 22 4.49 9 8 24 23 122.1 132 61 14 35 72 104 Brad Penny 31 4.81 9 10 26 25 144.0 161 77 14 55 81 97 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tim Wakefield 42 5.04 10 13 26 26 153.2 159 86 25 57 100 92 Devern Hansack 31 5.07 7 9 26 22 126.0 139 71 19 41 75 93 Enrique Gonzalez 26 5.11 7 8 33 20 130.1 145 74 14 58 74 92 BOTTOM THIRD Paul Byrd 38 5.30 9 13 28 28 169.2 206 100 31 31 74 88 Charlie Zink 29 5.55 7 11 25 23 136.1 157 84 17 67 56 84 Felix Doubront* 21 5.70 7 12 22 22 101.0 121 64 17 33 47 82 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RELIEVERS ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Name Age ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ TOP THIRD Jon Papelbon 28 2.51 6 1 64 0 64.2 52 18 5 12 68 190 Takashi Saito 39 2.63 6 1 54 0 54.2 44 16 3 17 61 175 Hideki Okajima* 33 3.25 4 1 63 0 61.0 53 22 6 21 59 144 Manny Delcarmen 27 3.43 3 1 61 0 65.2 57 25 4 25 62 137 MIDDLE THIRD Javier Lopez* 31 3.81 2 2 70 0 59.0 59 25 4 26 37 123 Ramon Ramirez 27 3.95 3 2 56 0 54.2 52 24 3 25 45 118 Daniel Bard 24 4.27 3 3 48 0 71.2 66 34 9 35 62 109 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wes Littleton 26 4.42 4 4 58 0 75.1 75 37 8 31 48 106 Hunter Jones* 25 4.48 5 4 38 1 70.1 75 35 7 23 42 105 Randor Bierd 25 4.67 2 2 35 2 52.0 55 27 5 24 35 99 BOTTOM THIRD Mike Timlin 43 5.01 3 4 55 0 55.2 62 31 8 18 30 94 Billy Traber* 29 5.08 4 4 38 9 78.0 89 44 10 24 42 93 Richard Lentz 24 5.60 3 4 40 0 62.2 62 39 9 52 52 84 Fernando Cabrera 27 5.74 2 2 37 0 47.0 48 30 10 29 48 81 Marcus McBeth 28 5.87 2 3 44 0 46.0 49 30 10 23 36 80 * - Throws Left --------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Jed Lowrie AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Projection .257 .337 .395 121 443 58 114 34 3 7 61 55 91 3 2 88 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Roy Smalley III, Kurt Stillwell, Mark Koenig ODDIBE Offense % Top Quintile 13 2nd Quintile 19 Mid Quintile 25 4th Quintile 24 Low Quintile 19 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % 160+ 1 .400+ 1 10+ 1 200+ 0 140+ 2 .375+ 8 5+ 26 150+ 0 130+ 3 .350+ 31 120+ 5 .325+ 67 2B % 110+ 13 .300+ 93 45+ 10 100+ 27 30+ 70 90+ 48 80+ 70 60+ 86 BA % SLG % HR % SB % .350+ 0 .550+ 2 50+ 0 70+ 0 .325+ 1 .500+ 3 40+ 1 50+ 0 .300+ 4 .450+ 9 30+ 1 30+ 0 .275+ 23 .400+ 45 20+ 3 10+ 9 .250+ 63 .350+ 89 10+ 21 (Based on Projected PA) --------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Jacoby Ellsbury AVG OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS OPS+ Projection .287 .345 .403 139 541 88 155 24 6 9 53 43 75 45 11 92 Top Near-Age Offensive Comps: Johnny Damon, Lance Johnson, Mel Almada ODDIBE Offense % Top Quintile 13 2nd Quintile 14 Mid Quintile 27 4th Quintile 26 Low Quintile 20 OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits % 160+ 0 .400+ 2 10+ 10 200+ 0 140+ 1 .375+ 11 5+ 58 150+ 66 130+ 3 .350+ 41 120+ 6 .325+ 80 2B % 110+ 15 .300+ 97 45+ 1 100+ 29 30+ 18 90+ 53 80+ 77 60+ 92 BA % SLG % HR % SB % .350+ 0 .550+ 1 50+ 0 70+ 4 .325+ 5 .500+ 4 40+ 0 50+ 36 .300+ 27 .450+ 12 30+ 1 30+ 89 .275+ 70 .400+ 42 20+ 5 10+ 100 .250+ 96 .350+ 91 10+ 34 (Based on Projected PA) --------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Jon Lester ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Projection 4.09 10 7 27 27 156.1 159 71 13 63 109 114 Top Near-Age Comps: Jerry Reuss, Randy Wolf, Britt Burns ODDIBE ERA % Top 1/3 30 Mid 1/3 63 Bot 1/3 7 ERA+ % BB % >150 5 >26 0 >140 11 >35 0 >130 20 >43 3 >120 41 >52 18 >110 64 >61 49 >100 85 >70 78 >90 97 >80 100 HR % >70 100 >12 50 >17 83 K/9 % >23 97 >156 1 >28 99 >139 5 >122 19 >104 570+ 100 .250+ 96 .350+ 91 10+ 34 (Based on Projected IP) --------------------------------------------- Player Spotlight - Josh Beckett ERA W L G GS INN H ER HR BB K ERA+ Projection 3.97 14 10 29 29 183.2 178 81 22 45 171 118 Top Near-Age Comps: Ben Sheets, Aaron Harang, Curt Schilling ODDIBE ERA % Top 1/3 39 Mid 1/3 56 Bot 1/3 5 ERA+ % BB % >150 7 >31 5 >140 15 >41 36 >130 29 >51 80 >120 49 >61 97 >110 74 >71 100 >100 90 >82 100 >90 98 >80 100 HR % >70 100 >14 11 >20 44 K/9 % >27 81 >184 26 >33 95 >163 62 >143 90 >123 99 (Based on Projected IP) --------------------------------------------- ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events) OPS+ 140+ Ortiz 56 Bay 31 Carter 23 OBP .400+ Ortiz 44 Drew 37 Pedroia 29 SLG .550+ Ortiz 54 Bay 26 Carter 10 BA .325+ Pedroia 45 Ortiz 10 Youkilis 7 2B 45+ Pedroia 52 Youkilis 26 Bay 22 3B 10+ Ellsbury 10 Lowrie 1 Drew 1 HR 30+ Ortiz 64 Bay 53 Carter 8 SB 50+ Ellsbury 36 ERA+ 140+ Papelbon 91 Saito 84 Okajima 56 K/9 9+ Saito 69 Papelbon 58 Okajima 38 BB/9 1.5- Papelbon 48 Byrd 42 Smoltz 6 HR/9 0.7- Lopez 83 Saito 82 Delcarmen 73 All figures in % based on projection playing time - Min. 300 PA/50 IP for inclusion Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors - many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn't what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Positional offense is ranked by RC/27 and divided into quintiles based on what the most frequent starting players at each position did in 2006-2008. Excellent is the top quintile, Very Good the 2nd quintile and so on. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.160.68.142