[討論] LESTER TO BE IN A CLASS BY HIMSELF

看板RedSox作者Belladonaa時間17年前 (2009/03/10 02:53)推噓0(0推 0噓 1→)

留言1則, 1人參與討論串1/1

http://www.weei.com/Red-Sox-Jon-Lester-Report-Agree-Long-Term-Deal/3984153 By Alex Speier WEEI.com Presuming that the Yahoo! report accurately represents the terms of a potential deal, the Red Sox are paying Lester as if he is indeed a rare breed. Since 2005, there have been six pre-arbitration pitchers signed to long-term deals after two-plus seasons: Cliff Lee (4 years, $15 million), Adam Wainwright (4 years, $15 million), Jake Peavy (4 years, $14.5 million), Chris Young (4 years, $14.5 million), Scott Baker (4 years, $14.5 million) and Jeff Francis (4 years, $13.25 million). All of those pitchers except Wainwright have offered the club a one-year option that would buy out their first year of free agency for $7-9.25 million. Wainwright gave the Cardinals options on his first two free-agent years, valued at $9 million and $12 million. A five-year, $30 million guaranteed contract, then, would guarantee Lester $6 million more than any of those peers through his first free-agent year. The Sox would be placing more trust (as defined by guaranteed dollars) in Lester than any other club for any other pitcher who had not yet reached arbitration eligibility. So why would Lester get such a bump? Either he is viewed as a pitcher who has separated himself from other pitchers with two-plus years of service time (unlikely, given that both Lee and Peavy have won Cy Youngs) or that other contracts are influencing his. The latter scenario appears more likely. It would seem that a few contracts represent key markers for a long-term deal for Lester. Indians pitcher Fausto Carmona, after just more than a year of big-league service, signed a four-year, $15 million deal at the start of 2008. The deal could be worth up to $36 million for the guaranteed term of Lester’s contract (if the Indians exercise a pair of options to buy out one free-agent year), and up to $48 million total (as compared to $43 million for Lester) for a second year of free agency. Left-hander Cole Hamels, who won the World Series MVP for the Phillies this October, offers another point of comparison. Hamels, who has played just under three seasons in the majors, was arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter. The Phillies will pay the pitcher $20.5 million over the next three years. For a five-year, $30 million deal, the Sox would pay close to but slightly less than that amount for Lester’s arbitration years. Angels pitcher Ervin Santana, who went 16-7 with a 3.49 ERA last year and was arbitration-eligible this winter after reaching more than three years of service in the majors, signed a four-year, $30 million deal this offseason. The deal bought out one year of free agency, and also featured a $13 million club option that is identical to the one that Lester has reportedly offered. For all intents and purposes, Lester’s deal matches that of Santana. Long-term deals for pitchers with comparable service time usually offer a low salary (less than $1 million) in the first season, suggesting that Lester’s arbitration-eligible and free-agent seasons are valued almost identically with Santana’s. That in itself would represent a coup for the Red Sox pitcher, since the earlier a player signs a long-term deal, the less money he typically gets, since there is less data about his long-term performance. “I think it is quite a leap of faith, but could save (the Sox) money in the long run,” one executive of another club suggested. “The obviously believe in Lester.” -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 118.160.70.74