[情報] Athlon Baseball 2009 Reds Preview
Athlon Baseball 2009 Cincinnati Reds Preview
When the Reds traded veteran sluggers Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn last
season, it signaled a change in the team’s direction. Now, the headliners are
Jay Bruce, Brandon Phillips, Edinson Volquez and Joey Votto. That’s an
impressive core, and the Reds might contend for a wild card spot if their
pitching comes together. But after eight consecutive losing seasons, their fans
have reason to be skeptical. The Reds have not truly contended in a decade, and
they still seem closer to last place than first.
Rotation
The rotation seems promising at first glance, but a deeper look is troubling.
They know they can count on Bronson Arroyo for 200 mostly quality innings. But
Aaron Harang, who had been one of baseball’s most underrated starters, had a
devastating fall last season and finished 6–17. Volquez starred early on and
pitched in the All-Star game — going 12–3 with a 2.29 ERA and 126 strikeouts
in 117.2 innings pitched before the break. But his ERA more than doubled in the
second half, when he allowed at least four earned runs seven times in 13 starts
— with a 5–3 record and 4.60 ERA after the Midsummer Classic. Still, he’s a
solid building block; so is Johnny Cueto, who actually pitched better at tiny
Great American Ballpark (6–4, 4.71) than he did on the road (3–10, 4.92). The
fifth spot goes to Micah Owings, a savvy late-season pickup from Arizona in the
Dunn trade. Owings slid back last season after a solid rookie year for the
Diamondbacks, but at 26, he’s talented enough to warrant a long look in Cincy,
unless Daryl Thompson or perennial prospect Homer Bailey win the fifth starter’
s spot in spring training.
Bullpen
The Reds had the third-best bullpen ERA in the National League last season, at
3.81, and the same cast returns, with one veteran lefty (Arthur Rhodes)
replacing another (Jeremy Affeldt). Francisco Cordero is an upper-echelon
closer, and as the team’s highest-paid player at $12 million per season, he
should be. The well-traveled Rhodes — who held lefties to a .157 average last
season — complements Bill Bray from the left side, giving Dusty Baker a pair
of dependable weapons to deploy. Jared Burton, Mike Lincoln and Dave Weathers,
closing in on 900 career appearances, hold things down from the right side.
Corners
The progression of Votto has been one of the Reds’ proudest achievements over
the last few seasons. After a steady and successful climb through the farm
system, Votto enjoyed his first full season in Cincinnati and had 24 homers and
84 runs batted in — totals unmatched by a Reds rookie in more than 50 years.
Only 25, Votto is a professional hitter who uses the whole field and absolutely
hammers fastballs, with a .382 average on the pitch, according to the Inside
Edge scouting service. Over at third base, Edwin Encarnacion set a career high
in homers, with 26 — but also in strikeouts, with 102. His average tumbled to
.251, and against righthanders it was only .235. Encarnacion has improved
defensively but is still considered below average at the position. With the
farm system rich in prospects on the left side of the infield, Encarnacion
needs a breakout season to prove his long-term value to the Reds. First-round
first baseman Yonder Alonso, who trains with A-Rod, could make a splash in the
bigs sooner than expected.
Middle infield
It’s hard to find a second baseman as well-rounded as Phillips. In each of the
last three seasons, Phillips has had at least 17 homers, 75 runs batted in and
23 steals. No other second baseman in baseball has matched those totals even
once in that span. And Phillips can field, too; he has led NL second basemen in
fielding percentage in each of the last two seasons. At full strength, his
counterpart at shortstop, Alex Gonzalez, is also outstanding in the field. But
Gonzalez missed all of last season (spring training, too) with a fractured left
knee, and he has not played more than 111 games in a season since 2005. At age
32, he’ll be looking to reestablish himself as a viable starter, and when he’
s healthy, he’s reasonably productive for a shortstop, usually good for
roughly 15 homers a season. The Reds re-signed utilityman Jerry Hairston in
January. He could play everyday at short if Gonzalez isn’t healthy.
Outfield
When the Rockies did not tender a contract to Willy Taveras, it got the Reds’
attention, with good reason. At the time, Cincinnati had only three
outfielders on its 40-man roster, and only one player with more than seven
stolen bases last year. Taveras, who led baseball with 68 steals last season,
jumped aboard for two years and $6.25 million and instantly changed the look of
the offense in a big way. Taveras had the second-lowest OPS in baseball last
season (.604, ahead of only Houston’s Michael Bourn), but he was the starting
center fielder on two of the last four NL champions — the 2005 Astros and the
2007 Rockies. Taveras will cover a lot of ground in the outfield, where he’ll
be flanked by Bruce in right and Chris Dickerson or Norris Hopper in left.
Bruce was Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year in 2007 for his
power potential, strong defense and leadership qualities. He ended the season
in a slump (.176 over his last 14 games), but at age 22 on Opening Day, Bruce
justifiably excites the Reds for the future. Hopper can hit (.316 in almost 400
big league at-bats), but health is a question. Dickerson can run — like his
cousin, the NFL Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson — but he needs to cut down on his
strikeouts.
Catching
Ramon Hernandez couldn’t do much to lift a young Orioles pitching staff in the
rigorous AL East, but before that he guided strong staffs in Oakland and San
Diego. Now there’s a new challenge for Hernandez, who was acquired in a deal
for Ryan Freel in December. He’s already familiar with Harang, a former
teammate with the A’s, and he will provide a veteran’s know-how to young
starters Volquez and Cueto.
Bench
Hairston, assuming he isn’t playing full time at short, can fill in just about
everywhere on the diamond. He played 10 games or more in four different
positions last year. Jeff Keppinger is another solid utilityman. Ryan Hanigan
does seem to have promise as a backup to Hernandez who will not be a drop-off
defensively. Jacque Jones and Daryle Ward signed minor league deals and are
likely to make the roster coming out of spring training. Jones will be nice
insurance if the youngsters in the outfield struggle. Ward is a proven bat off
the bench, but doesn’t offer much help in the field.
Management
Owner Bob Castellini wasted no time in firing general manager Wayne Krivsky
last season, handing the job over to Walt Jocketty on April 23 after the Reds
had started 9–12. Jocketty was the architect of the St. Louis Cardinals — the
dominant team in the National League Central for most of this decade — and
before that had helped build a winner in Oakland. Likewise, Baker had success
with the Giants and the Cubs before coming to Cincinnati. Their first season
together was a letdown, but with Baker signed through 2010 and Jocketty through
2011, they should have time to build a winner around the Reds’ young core.
Final analysis
The Reds are coming together, but at this point, their talent level is still
not close to that of the division-rival Cubs. The rotation, particularly the
formerly reliable Harang, must pitch to its potential for the Reds to take a
step forward. Even if the starters improve and combine with the strong bullpen
to form a stingy staff, the Reds still must get more offense from a team that
hit just .247 last season, the lowest average in the league. The Reds could
sneak into the wild card race, but that will only happen if every best-case
scenario comes through — and that’s probably asking too much.
Beyond the Boxscore
Benz rolls into Dayton Former first baseman Todd Benzinger, who caught the
final pop out of Cincinnati’s last World Series title in 1990, was named
manager of the Reds’ Class A team in Dayton. Benzinger, who said in 2005 that
he keeps the final-out ball in an old equipment bag, has been coaching girls’
high school basketball in the Cincinnati area since 1999.
Read all about it If Reds fans want to relive the glory days — and if the team
keeps struggling, that might be a good idea — there’s a new book coming out
just for them. Joe Posnanski, the award-winning columnist for the Kansas City
Star who also writes for Sports Illustrated, has written The Machine, the
definitive story of the Big Red Machine team that won the World Series in 1975
and ’76. It will be published by William Morrow and released sometime in 2009.
Steal of a deal Former general manager Wayne Krivsky didn’t make it through
April last season before Walt Jocketty replaced him. But the Reds can thank
Krivsky every time Bronson Arroyo takes the mound. While the Red Sox get lots
of praise for shrewd deals, the Reds stole Arroyo from them in March 2006 for
overrated slugger Wily Mo Pena. While Pena is long gone from Boston, Arroyo has
led the majors in starts since the deal, with 103, while going 38–37 for
sub-.500 teams.
First impression Jay Bruce looked quite comfortable as soon as he was called up
last May, with 15 hits and three home runs in his first week in the majors.
Only one other player in the last 80 years had as many hits and homers after a
week in The Show: Mitchell Page of the 1977 Oakland A’s.
Movin’ up Francisco Cordero did not record a save until 2002, and did not
become a full-time closer until 2004. But if Cordero repeats last year’s
34-save effort, he will have 245 for his career — more than such standouts as
Dan Quisenberry, Sparky Lyle and Hoyt Wilhelm.
This stuff’s easy Last June 21 at Yankee Stadium, the Reds’ Daryl Thompson
opposed the Yankees’ Dan Giese, with both holding the other team scoreless
through five innings. It was the first time since 1972 that two pitchers making
their first major league starts had done that in the same game. Thompson got a
no-decision in an eventual 6–0 Reds win, and he lost his other two starts in
2008.
Farm System
2008 Top Draft Pick — If the Reds’ first pick last year is anything like his
mentor, he will be a tremendous success. First baseman Yonder Alonso out of the
University of Miami spent the winter before last season working out with Alex
Rodriguez. “I was willing to work and willing to go all-out and not willing to
quit,” Alonso told the Miami Herald. “I was a workaholic. I’m like him.”
After hitting .370 with 24 homers in 64 games as a junior, Alonso was the
seventh overall choice by the Reds. He played six games at high-A ball in the
Florida State League, going 6-for-19 for Sarasota. The lefty-swinging Alonso
seems to be on the fast track to the majors.
2007 Top Pick — Devin Mesoraco, C, Punxsutawney (Pa.) High School
Only 20 years old, he held his own in Midwest League, hitting .261 with nine
HRs.
2006 Top Pick — Drew Stubbs, OF, University of Texas
Made strides in ’08, jumping two levels and showing great speed (33 steals)
for a big guy (6-foot-4).
2005 Top Pick — Jay Bruce, OF, Westbrook (Texas) High School
Centerpiece of Reds’ lineup and an integral part of team’s future.
2004 Top Pick — Homer Bailey, RHP, La Grange (Texas) High School
Beloved by scouts, he bombed last season and has 45 walks to only 46 strikeouts
in majors.
2003 Top Pick — Ryan Wagner, RHP, University of Houston
Traded to Nationals in eight-player deal in 2006; tore labrum in ’07.
Other Prospects (age on Opening Day)
Chris Valaika, SS (23)
Led all Reds’ minor leaguers with .317 average, jumped to Class AA and earned
spot in Futures Game.
Juan Francisco, 3B (21)
With 48 homers over last two seasons, Francisco is the third baseman of the
future for Reds.
Todd Frazier, SS (23)
Rutgers product made smooth transition to high-A last summer and might profile
better as a third baseman.
Josh Roenicke, RHP (26)
Son of former Orioles outfielder Gary Roenicke, he throws 98 mph and had 166
strikeouts in 134 pro innings.
Matt Maloney, LHP (25)
Acquired from Phils in ’07 for Kyle Lohse, he went 11–5 at Class AAA last
season.
Statistician
8 >> Consecutive losing seasons for the Reds, the club’s longest streak
since 1945-55.
2.29 >> First-half ERA for Edinson Volquez.
4.60 >> Second-half ERA for Volquez.
.261 >> Winning percentage by Aaron Harang — who went 6–17 in 29 starts last
year — worst in a single season in MLB since 2005.
2 >> Major leaguers in the last 60 years named Homer
(the Reds’ Bailey, and former MLB infielder Bush).
.319 >> Career average for right-handed pitcher Micah Owings, in 116 at-bats.
0 >> Games pitched for Cleveland by Jeff Stevens, whom the Reds traded
even-up for Brandon Phillips in 2006. Stevens was dealt to the Cubs
in the offseason.
282 >> Appearances by David Weathers since joining Reds in 2005, ninth among
MLB righties.
55 >> Years since a Reds rookie had 84 RBIs in a season, as Joey Votto did
in ’08.
Difference Maker
Rarely do players fall as quickly as Aaron Harang did last season. Harang was
the only pitcher in baseball to win 16 games and record 200 strikeouts in both
2006 and 2007. But he fell apart in 2008. Harang missed almost four weeks with
a strained right forearm in July and August, and his ERA rose after he
returned. If Harang can return to form, the Reds have a solid trio atop their
rotation with Edinson Volquez and Bronson Arroyo. If not, it could be another
long season in Cincy.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 118.160.70.19
Reds 近期熱門文章
PTT體育區 即時熱門文章
