[情報] Sporting News 2009 Reds preview
Cincinnati Reds preview
Like several other teams, the Reds are making a concerted effort to move away
from the three-run homer (though those are still welcome) and toward a
small-ball approach. Sluggers Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. are long gone,
having been replaced by younger, faster players. Cincinnati is getting a lot of
attention as a dark horse, and for good reason.
THREE QUESTIONS
1. Are the young hitters ready to take charge?
At 27, cleanup hitter Brandon Phillips is the old man in the heart of the Reds'
batting order. He is sandwiched by 25-year-old Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, who
will turn 22 in early April. A bit further down the lineup is 26-year-old Edwin
Encarnacion. Votto is the most consistent of the bunch, hitting at least .280
with double-digit RBI totals in four of six months last season. Bruce's power
came on late (14 of his 21 homers came in August/September), while Phillips saw
an across-the-board drop in production. Though he hit a career-high 26 homers
in 2008, Encarnacion admitted that he was swinging for the fence too often --
and his average suffered. There will be a few more growing pains in 2009, but
each of these young hitters should be better after another year of experience.
2. How good is this rotation?
With a pair of dependable veterans and a pair of emerging youngsters, this
starting five has the potential to be very good. After floundering in Texas'
system, Edinson Volquez (17-6, 3.21 ERA) was an All-Star in his first season
with Cincinnati in 2008. Fellow Dominican Johnny Cueto showed signs of
dominance last season, though he was much more inconsistent. For the first time
since 2004, Aaron Harang failed to make 30 starts and pitch 200 innings. He
dropped 25 pounds this offseason in hopes of erasing a nightmare 2008 (16-game
winner in 2007; 17-game loser in '08). Workhorse Bronson Arroyo's 4.77 ERA was
his highest since 2001, and, like Harang, he must bounce back. Homer Bailey and
Micah Owings are the front-runners for the fifth spot, and both are pitching
very well this spring. One drawback: The unit lacks a lefty.
3. Who will start in left field?
There's no shortage of candidates, and many of them figure to see time
elsewhere in the field if they don't nail down the starting job. Jerry Hairston
Jr., Chris Dickerson, Jacque Jones, Jonny Gomes and Laynce Nix are in the mix.
Hairston is the favorite, but because he has durability issues and because he
will be called upon to spell Alex Gonzalez at shortstop, Dickerson also should
get plenty of playing time. Because of their speed, both Dickerson, a
lefthanded hitter, and Hairston, who hits righthanded, are perfect fits near
the top of the lineup. Dickerson played in 31 games after a late-season call-up
in 2008, scoring 20 runs and hitting .304. Given his experience and past
production, Jones should make the 25-man roster, despite hitting .147 with the
Tigers and Marlins last season.
PROJECTED LINEUP
1. CF Willy Taveras.
MLB-high 68 steals, but only a .308 OBP.
2. LF Jerry Hairston Jr.
Played in only 80 games, but has 30-steal potential.
3. 1B Joey Votto.
Led team with 84 RBIs, 32 doubles.
4. 2B Brandon Phillips.
Fell from 30-30 club to 20-20 club.
5. RF Jay Bruce.
Hit .287 at home, .221 on road.
6. 3B Edwin Encarnacion.
Despite 26 HRs, had only 68 RBIs last season.
7. C Ramon Hernandez.
Defense is questionable, but offense is a plus.
8. SS Alex Gonzalez.
Glove man missed 2008 season after knee surgery.
PROJECTED ROTATION
1. RHP Aaron Harang.
ERA jumped by more than a run to 4.78.
2. RHP Edinson Volquez.
Had 2.08 ERA through June; 4.38 ERA after.
3. RHP Bronson Arroyo.
ERA never dipped below 4.00 again after his first start.
4. RHP Johnny Cueto.
Allowed five or more earned runs in nine of 31 starts.
5. RHP Homer Bailey.
Finally seems to have turned corner this spring.
PROJECTED CLOSER
RHP Francisco Cordero.
Has battled an ankle injury this spring; must return to 2007
form (44 saves, 2.98 ERA).
GRADES
Offense: C. The Reds finished 23rd in the majors in runs scored and 24th in
on-base percentage in 2008. You can't score if you don't get on base, and
Cincy's plan to manufacture runs has to start at the top. There isn't a
40-homer hitter in the lineup -- and might not be a 30-homer hitter -- but five
guys could hit 20.
Pitching: B. Shocking as it sounds, the Reds' rotation could rank behind only
the Cubs' in the N.L. Central. The bullpen actually was a top-10 unit in terms
of ERA (3.81) last season, although Cordero struggled a bit. David Weathers and
Jared Burton form a solid setup duo, and Arthur Rhodes replaces lefthander
Jeremy Affeldt.
Bench: C. Dickerson can play anywhere in the outfield, Hairston can play middle
infield and outfield, and both Gomes and Jones are working at first base. Jeff
Keppinger is a solid utility infielder, and Daryle Ward has some pinch-hitting
pop. Plus, don't forget about Owings, a .319 career hitter who could serve as a
reliever/pinch hitter if he doesn't make the rotation.
Manager: C. The criticism that has followed Dusty Baker in recent years is that
he overuses young arms. As long as he keeps Volquez's and Cueto's workload
reasonable, he'll improve upon the team's 74-88 record from 2008. The bottom
line, however, is that Baker hasn't posted a winning record in his past three
seasons.
Sporting News prediction: This is a young, up-and-coming team -- but it's about
a year away from serious contention. A jump to third place in the N.L. Central
is within reach in 2009.
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