[轉錄]【Clutch】10 Questions with Daryl Morey

看板Rockets (休士頓火箭)作者Goooooooog1e (孤狗)時間19年前 (2006/05/26 08:22)推噓0(0推 0噓 2→)

留言2則, 1人參與討論串1/1

10 Questions With Daryl Morey Future Rockets GM talks about the numbers, the draft and the future ahead MONDAY, MAY 22, 2006 3:01 AM CST By Clutch Copyright 2006 ClutchFans.net http://www.clutchfans.net/news/1316/10_questions_with_daryl_morey Translated by 手型不再@hoopchina http://bbs.hoopchina.com/read.php?tid=96432 --- 首先，歡迎來到休斯敦。這裡的人對你怎麼樣？他們對我真是棒極了。每個人似乎都是火箭的擁躉，我遇到的球迷都是見多識廣的人物。我們將每週舉行一次早餐會，邀請一些已經購買或者計劃購買的季票擁有者，他們對球隊的熱情支持讓人非常感動。如果您有意成為季票擁有者並參加我們的聚會，請與我們聯繫。在你進入NBA後，你的名字和對你的聘用似乎永遠都會和「商業籃球」（Moneyball）聯繫在一起，你覺得這是個公允的評價嗎？現在越來越多的球隊都聘請了數據分析專家，許多交易也是純粹為了「工資帽」問題，NBA越來越靠數據說話了？我注意到我的職業生涯和對我的僱傭是大環境變化的體現，團隊的決策更加依賴客觀憑據（數據，資料，信息……）的應用，以改進預測，預見檢驗假設，等等。客觀憑據的應用在許多產業都獲得了成功，在商業體育(Moneyball by the Oakland A's）一書中風光無限，在波士頓紅襪隊，新英格蘭愛國者隊等等球隊也獲得了成功。亞歷山大先生一段時間以來一直處在這股潮流的前沿，我的聘任剛好是他的改進措施中更廣為人知的一項而已。我們的決策過程所具有的這一優勢將增大我們贏得籃球比賽的機會。從商業運作到籃球管理的角色轉換中，什麼是你最大的挑戰？其實這不算真正的轉變。在波士頓我同時負責籃球和商業的運作。在火箭唯一的改變就是我將專注於籃球方面，這比我要遇到的挑戰更加令人興奮，越是集中精力，越有可能交出更好的答卷。你希望或者說期望下賽季從Carroll Dawson身邊學到些什麼？你和他處得怎麼樣了？我們的關係好極了。能有機會和他共事真的非常幸運。除了從他的經驗中汲取營養，我還盼著他幫我提高彈跳，他培養球員的能力可是被低估了。你認為火箭最大的弱點是什麼，對此你打算如何改善？你認為解決現在困擾火箭的問題需要一到兩年來調整來還是會花費更多的時間？有了翠喜兒和明明我們的目標就是每年都要有能挑戰冠軍的班底。那就是說，我們要建設一支穩定的常勝隊伍，這就需要時間去做出許多決定，會比一年的時間來的要長。我通常不會公開談論球員名單上的缺陷，這對我們沒有好處。 NBA選秀就在五周之後，在選秀時要評估大學球員和外籍球員，對他們經歷過的不同規則，聯盟和比賽強度的給出評判，你將如何運用數據分析在這些方面？將不同的規則，聯盟和比賽強度都考慮進去，並且對這些信息對最終決策的影響賦予適當的權重。無論在什麼情況下，收集客觀憑據總是好的，重要的是你會給你收集到的客觀憑據以多大的權重。哪種類型（位置，風格或者其他的）的球員是火箭這次選秀需要的？由於現在的勞資協議在四年的新秀合同中加入了主隊在第五年擁有限制權條款（即優先選擇），我們在第一輪選中的球員將是那個和火箭共渡職業生涯的人（交易除外）。因此，得到一個最好的球員的權重大於一個最合適的球員的權重。（跟老鷹的總經理一樣哦）許多分析家感覺今年選秀前列的球員不是很強，但是很多有潛力的新人可能會落到第二輪。在你初步看來，第32位選秀權（來自尼克斯）價值如何？我相信我們會在32位獲得一位能有重要貢獻的NBA水準的球員——即使不在他的第一年，那也是在不久的將來 Vassilis Spanoulis仍然在歐洲深造，球隊希望他下賽季能出現在火箭的名單上嗎？我們相信Vassilis是NBA級的球員。不過，所有對球員的選擇，都要以長遠的眼光來看，你得掂量是把錢花在他身上還是其他的選擇上，哪一個會最好。所以關於他的決定會在夏天結束時做出。最後一個問題：你有從MIT給我們帶來一個能在星期二抽到狀元簽的神奇方程嗎？是的，我從MIT帶來了最初的原型，Patrick Ewing幫助加工成了最終產品（尤因是第一屆狀元）。我們給CD打了招呼了，他已經準備好了。原文如下： 10 Questions With Daryl Morey Future Rockets GM talks about the numbers, the draft and the future ahead MONDAY, MAY 22, 2006 3:01 AM CST By Clutch Copyright 2006 ClutchFans.net First off, welcome to Houston. How have the city and fans treated you so far? The response has been really great. The Rockets are a team that everyone seems to get behind and the fans I have met are very knowledgeable. We are holding weekly breakfast meetings with current or prospective season ticket holders and the passion for the team is impressive. If you are interested in potentially becoming a season ticket holder and taking part in these meetings, please contact the Rockets. Your name and hiring will probably be forever linked to "Moneyball" arriving in the NBA. Do you feel that is a fair assessment? With more teams hiring statistical analysts and so many trades these days being made strictly for "cap purposes", has the NBA become much more numbers-oriented? I see my career and hiring as part of a larger trend of decision making in organizations being augmented by the use of objective evidence ("numbers", "data", "information", ...) to improve forecasting, to test assumptions before acting on them, etc... This use of objective evidence has been very successful in many industries and famously in the book Moneyball by the Oakland A's but has also been successful at the Boston Red Sox, New England Patriots, etc... Mr. Alexander has been on the leading edge of this trend for some time, my hiring just happens to be more public than the other improvements he has made. An edge in our decision making will increase our chance of winning basketball games. In switching from the operations side to the basketball side, what will be your biggest challenge? both basketball and business. The only change at the Rockets is I am focused exclusively on basketball, which is more exciting than challenging as greater focus will increase the chance of greater results. What do you hope/expect to learn working closely with Carroll Dawson next season and how has your relationship been with him thus far? The relationship has been tremendous, I am really lucky to have the opportunity to work with him. Besides tapping into and learning from his experience, I am expecting he will help me improve my jumper. His ability to develop players is under-appreciated. What is the biggest weakness you see in the Rockets and how do you plan on addressing it moving forward? Do you think what ails the Rockets is a 1 or 2 year fix or something that may take longer? While we have Tracy and Yao our goal is to each year develop a roster that is championship caliber. That said, we also are going to build a consistent winner which requires that the time horizon on many of our decisions be longer than just one year. I generally will avoid publicly discussing what I see as weaknesses in our roster as that info can put us at a competitive disadvantage. The NBA Draft is a little over 5 weeks away. How do you apply your statistical analysis to the draft when scouting college and foreign players, given the varying rules, conferences and levels of competition that these prospects have faced? You take those varying rules, conferences, and levels of competition into account and weight the use of that information into the final decision appropriately. It is always better to gather objective evidence than not, no matter what the situation. The important step is how much weight you give the objective evidence you have gathered. What type of player (position, style or otherwise) will the Rockets be looking for out of this draft? Because the current CBA includes four year rookie contracts with restriction rights in the 5th year, the player we draft in the 1st round will be one that will be with the Rockets his whole career (barring a trade). Because of this, going with the best player available is weighted higher and team fit (position, style, etc...) is weighted lower. Many analysts feel the top of this draft is not that strong, but there are many potential contributors that could extend to the second round. In your early look at the draft, how valuable does that 32nd pick in the draft (via the Knicks) look to be? at the NBA level -- if not in his first year then shortly after. Vassilis Spanoulis continues to improve in Europe. Is it the team's hope to have him on the Rocket roster next season? We believe Vassilis is a NBA player. As with all player decisions, however, you have to weigh the use of money on him vs. other options and go with what is best in the larger picture so a decision on him will play out over the summer. Last question: Did you bring us a magical stat formula from MIT that can get us the #1 pick Tuesday? Yes. After an initial prototype I brought from MIT, Patrick Ewing contributed to the final product and we have briefed Carroll so he is ready Tuesday. -- ClutchFans.net News Archives -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.118.224.17 ※ 編輯: Goooooooog1e 來自: 140.118.224.17 (05/26 08:25) ※ 編輯: Goooooooog1e 來自: 140.118.224.17 (05/26 08:27) ※ 編輯: Goooooooog1e 來自: 140.118.224.17 (05/26 08:29) ※ 編輯: Goooooooog1e 來自: 140.118.224.17 (05/26 08:30)