[情報] Looking Forward to 2008: Colorado Rockies
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同樣交給勞苦功高的rahim03大大幫忙翻譯 XD
這樣你的部落格就可以馬上多兩篇專業分析文了
http://tinyurl.com/4q3s2h
As thrilling as the 2007 season was for the Rockies and their fans, it was
still in a sense unsatisfying, even though it was by far the most successful
year in the team’s history. Most surprise winners give their fans an entire
summer’s worth of fun, jockeying for the lead in an unexpected pennant race.
Think of how exciting the summer of 2006 was in Detroit, or 1984 in Chicago.
But as late as the middle of September, the Rockies were still in fourth place
in the NL West. They weren’t even getting listed in the daily paper’s Wild
Card standings. Then came the famous hot streak, culminating in the
exhilarating victory over the Padres in Game No. 163, the sweeps of the
Phillies and Diamondbacks in the NL playoffs, and the franchise’s first-ever
trip to the World Series. But really, the whole time that any of this even
seemed possible lasted just over a month.
So the 2008 season opens with the Rockies bearing high expectations of fans who
still haven’t seen their team spend a season in contention. The NL West is
expected to be a tough division once again this year, but there’s no one there
who stands out as a world beater. Ninety wins may well be enough again in 2008.
Here’s how the Rockies hope to get there:
Catcher: Yorvit Torrealba was adequate last season, both offensively and
defensively. He did prove to be very popular with the pitching staff (and the
fans), and after some timely playoff hitting, Rockies brass re-signed him as a
free agent (once his flirtation with the Mets fell apart).
But Torrealba is not the best catcher on the team; that distinction belongs to
Chris Iannetta. Highly touted as a rookie last year, Iannetta struggled both at
the bat and behind the plate before being sent back to AAA in August once his
average had dribbled all the way down to .179. But he came back up on fire,
hitting .348/.434/.565 over his final 16 games of the season, and has been
red-hot through spring training (so has Torrealba, for that matter). With his
walks and power, Iannetta is a better offensive player than Yorvit even if he
hits .240, although .179 is clearly out of the question. He’s still young,
turning 25 a week into the season. If Clint Hurdle lets Iannetta play more than
once a week, he’ll probably be the starting catcher by the break.
First Base: Todd Helton has settled in as a .320/.440/.500 kind of hitter – a
far cry from where he used to be, but with his still-excellent defense, he
remains a very valuable player. In the National League last year, only Barry
Bonds got on base more frequently than Helton. Hurdle has moved him up to third
in the lineup (he batted cleanup last year), but he really ought to bat second.
Or even lead off, except he is godawful slow.
Second Base: Among the position players, Kazuo Matsui is the only loss from
last year’s NL champs. Since either he or Torrealba was the worst of the
starting eight, it’s not a major blow, although it would be better if the Rox
had a viable option waiting in the wings. Minor league defensive whiz Jayson
Nix opens the season as the starting second baseman, but he’s not going to
hit. If enough singles fall in for him that he’s hitting .280 by June, he’ll
probably keep the job for the year. More likely, he’ll hit .200 with no power
or walks, and the Rockies will turn to Plan B or C or D: Jeff Baker, failed
former prospect Omar Quintanilla, failed former shortstop Clint Barmes.
Onetime top third-base prospect Ian Stewart is learning to play second; he
would hit a ton there, but give most of it back on the glove side of things.
The Rockies may yet regret giving away Jamey Carroll.
Shortstop: The hope is that Troy Tulowitzki’s career will demonstrate what
Cal Ripken Jr. would have done had he played 155 games a year rather than 162.
But even if he doesn’t improve from where he was as a 22-year-old rookie, the
Rockies appear set at the shortstop position for a long, long time.
Third Base: Garrett Atkins got off to a horrendous start last year, coming to
the end of May hitting .223/.297/.335 with just three homers, after hitting 29
the year before. For the rest of the year, he hit .338/.400/.559, or almost
exactly what he had done in his breakthrough 2006. If he can avoid the slow
start this year, he’ll make the All-Star team.
Left Field: Matt Holliday’s near-MVP season was probably his career year, but
it wasn’t all that much better than his 2006 All-Star campaign, when he hit
.326/.387/.586. With his defense and durability, he’s likely to be the best
leftfielder in the NL again in 2008.
Center Field: Willy Taveras did exactly what the Rockies wanted him to last
year, except bad hammies limited him to 97 games. His .320 average was fueled
by a whopping 37 bunt hits, almost double anyone else in the league. With no
power and only 21 walks, his OPS+ was just 89, but he just turned 26; a batting
title could be in his future.
Right Field: Brad Hawpe is just slightly too good to be platooned, or else the
Rockies would partner him with Ryan Spilborghs and have the best rightfielder
in the league. Hawpe hit .315/.418/.585 against righties; Spilborghs hit
.356/.426/.586 against lefties. Hawpe’s arm doesn’t make up for his other
defensive deficiencies, but with 29 homers and 81 walks, it’s hard to get him
out of the lineup. World Series DH Spilborghs will probably have to settle for
being an excellent fourth outfielder.
Starting Rotation: Jeff Francis is sort of the Rockies’ version of Andy
Pettitte: A consistent, durable lefty who’d be a great No. 2 starter, but is
a bit stretched as a staff ace. The good news is, the Rockies have two kids who
may eventually be that staff ace. Ubaldo Jimenez, 24, is the more polished
product at the moment, while Franklin Morales, 22, a lefty who throws in the
upper 90s, is rawer but with more upside. The bad news is, both struggled in
spring training, and neither is opening the season looking strong. If they
somehow each pitch well as they did in their late season callups last year
(Jimenez made 15 starts with a 112 ERA+, while Morales made eight starts with a
140 ERA+), the Rockies would be ecstatic, but that’s probably be too much to
ask for.
As those two go, the Rockies’ season will probably go, since there are
question marks along the rest of the rotation. A strained oblique limited Aaron
Cook to 25 starts last year; he always pitches well when he pitches, but he’s
29 and has made it through a full year in the rotation only once in his career.
Jason Hirsh showed promise as a rookie last year, when two non-pitching
injuries held him to 19 starts. (One was a line drive that broke his leg and
ended his season. The other came during a 6-0 game when Paul Lo Duca tried to
pick him off third base; Hirsh stepped awkwardly on the bag and sprained his
ankle. Thanks, Paulie!) But he strained his shoulder this spring and hasn’t
pitched since March 1st. The backups are longtime fifth starters Mark Redman
and Kip Wells; Wells replaced Josh Fogg, who signed as a free agent with the
Reds. If Wells fails, expect the Rockies to bring in Sean Lowe.
Bullpen: Manny Corpas took over the closer’s job after the All-Star break and
was brilliant, with a 2.08 ERA and 19 saves. Brian Fuentes, just half a season
removed from being an All-Star closer, is now the setup man. The Rockies had an
excellent journeyman bullpen last year with the likes of LaTroy Hawkins, Jorge
Julio and Jeremy Affeldt, all of whom have departed. Matt Herges is the
holdover, alongside newcomer Micah Bowie, and Taylor Buchholz, last year’s
swingman. The Rockies have very high hopes for Buchholz, who put up a 2.70 ERA
in 33 relief appearance in 2007.
Bench: Last year the Rockies brought in Steve Finley to be the fifth outfielder
, but he had nothing left, hitting .181/.245/.245 before getting cut in early
June. This year it’s Scott Podsednik in that role, and Pods has even less of a
resume than Finley had. If Taveras needs to be spelled for any length of time,
expect to see defensive whiz Cory Sullivan brought back from Colorado Springs.
Erstwhile starting shortstop Clint Barmes takes over Jamey Carroll’s role as
supersub, and late-season heroes Jeff Baker and Seth Smith are the primary
pinch-hitters.
The Skinny: This team was no fluke last year. Their 91 Pythagorean wins led the
league, as did their 90 real wins, and that was without any key contributors
playing way over their heads. The starting eight was mostly healthy, but three
fifths of the rotation and the closer all spent time on the DL. This is a
legitimately good club.
The Rockies stood pat, as surprise winners tend to do, but there’s some logic
to that. Among the key players, only Helton and Fuentes are over 30, and there
are plenty of kids still being folded into the fabric of the team: Iannetta,
Nix, Jimenez, Morales.
For the position players, I don’t expect a whole lot different from last
year’s team: Steps back at leftfield and second base, steps forward at catcher
and centerfield. The bullpen appears solid again, despite the defections. The
starting rotation will tell the tale. If Redman and Wells rack up less than 25
starts between them, the Rockies will probably be in contention all year.
And we’ll take that. No matter how it turns out, a seasonlong pennant race
would be awfully nice – and we haven’t had one of those yet.
--
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