Colorado Rockies Top-15 Prospects of 2009: No's 1 - 5

看板Rockies作者abc12812時間17年前 (2008/11/05 21:45)推噓0(0推 0噓 0→)

留言0則, 0人參與討論串1/1

http://tinyurl.com/5ab2zl For an overview of the process I use to grade players, the factors I use in determining where a player ranks, and other frequently asked questions, please click here. All grades are subject to change based on any new information I receive before the season starts. If you disagree, you can make your case by contacting me. You can find a full listing of each team's top prospect list in the Top Prospects of 2009 Archive Page. Also, each team will have their Team Page published when their top prospect list becomes available. Team pages include team rosters, stats, payroll and front office information, past Baseball-Intellect articles related to that team, and links to some of the team's best fan sites. We now turn our attention to the Colorado Rockies... =============================================================================== 1. Dexter Fowler | CF | B - B | AA Tulsa | Age - 23 (in March) | Drafted - Round 14, 2004 Contact - 50 Now | 55 Future Power - 45 | 55 Discipline - 50 | 55 Speed - 60 | 60 Defense - 60 | 65 Arm - 55 | 55 Instincts - 55 | 60 Final Grade - A- Body Type - Very wiry and long, a thin frame but with room for growth...an excellent athlete Hitting True breakout year for Fowler...combines excellent plate discipline with above average power and the ability to make hard contact evidenced by the high BABIP rates over the course of his career. Excellent hand-eye coordination allows Fowler to consistently square up on the ball. Still has a problem with striking out, but was able to make strides this past year...sometimes he is too patient at the plate, waiting for the perfect pitch that may or may not come. A true 5-tool player...plus speed with an above average arm out in center field...terrific range as he's able to get great reads on balls coming off the bat and cover a ton of ground with his long strides and speed For more information on Fowler, see this scouting report from earlier in the year. The Swing Has a line drive stroke from both sides of the plate...he's a natural right hander, which is where most of his power comes from...swing does look a little awkward, but you can see the tremendous bat speed and quick wrists...his loading process is a bit long, especially from the left side, but in reality-- at the point in which his bat begins it's first aggressive movement forward-- the bat is connected with the body and really not all that long...also see how he let's the ball travel deep into his hitting zone--a quality seen in most high level hitters From the left side, Fowler doesn't let the ball travel as deep and is a bit more handsy. One More Thing - Fowler is an extremely intelligent player who had an opportunity to play at numerous Ivy League schools and his intelligence should serve him well as he adjusts to new levels of competition Best Case Outcome - stud center fielder with plus defense and a combination of power, speed, and patience at the plate More Likely Outcome - plus defensive center fielder but not quite good enough offensively to be considered an elite player at the position =============================================================================== 2. Jhoulys Chacin | RHP | A+ Modesto | Age - 21 | Signed - 2004 from Venezuela Fastball - 50 Now | 55 Future Change-Up - 55 | 60 Curveball - 40 | 45 Control - 55 | 60 Command - 50 | 55 Pitchability - 45 | 55 Final Grade - B+ Very young for his level, Chacin continued to improve as the season wore on... Stuff Fastball - heavy, heavy sink causes opposing hitters to pound the pitch into the ground...doesn't always have plus velocity, but it has improved over the course of the year and is now more consistently in the 92 or 93 range instead of the 90 and 91 range...can touch 94....commands pitch to both sides of the plate...occasionally leaves the pitch up which can result in hard hit line drives It's not fun to face Chacin as hitters routinely foul off pitches on their foot or shin, which you can see below: Change-Up - could be his best pitch as he maintains his arm speed and often gets hitters out in front...the bottom falls out as it approaches home plate... acts as a swing and miss pitch Curveball - the pitch has a somewhat slurvy action, but is pretty late break and is thrown between 78 and 81 mph...he can throw it for strikes to both sides of the plate...the pitch improved over the course of the year as he was able to keep it tight on a more consistent basis Mechanics - fairly slow to the plate, but picks up the pace late, which is where it matters the most...arm action looks a bit loopy, but I would like to see a better view to confirm...has an ability to consistently repeat his mechanics time and time again and much of that is based on Chacin's athletic ability.... Strengths - throws strikes with all his pitches...excellent feel for his age... excellent GB% combined with a respectable K% Weaknesses - no major weakness, but he doesn't scream dominance...doesn't have a pitch that can be his go-to out pitch...has to mix his pitches well...can start nibbling at times...K% could be higher. Best Case Outcome - given his age, there is a lot of time left in his development, but at this point his upside seems to be around a borderline No. 2 starter though you could bump that projection up to a quality No. 2 if the defense behind him is good enough More Likely Outcome - something along the lines of a No. 3/4 starter =============================================================================== 3. Christian Friedrich | LHP | Single-A Ashville | Age - 21 | Drafted - Round 1 (25), 2008 Fastball - 50 Now | 55 Future Change-Up - 40 | 45 Curveball - 60 | 60 Cutter - 45 | 50 Control - 45 | 50 Command - 40 | 45 Pitchability - 45 | 50 Final Grade - B You can see my profile on Christian Friedrich from earlier this year for more information. Since that profile was made, Friedrich has accumulated some professional playing experience under his belt. We found out basically what we already know. He often times baffled hitters with his deep repertoir of pitches and plus breaking ball. He was much too advanced for hitters in the Northwest League and was promoted to Single-A Ashville for 12 innings, where he was roughed up a bit, but still managed to strike out a very healthy percentage of the batters he faced. When contact was made, he was pretty hittable--a combined .344 BABIP against. However, take note the small sample size here. Best Case Outcome - I stand by my original projection of Friedrich, which was an upside of a No. 3 starter More Likely Outcome - perhaps a No. 4 starter, but there really isn't too much difference between his upside and downside. At worst, he's a quality left handed reliever out of the bullpen. =============================================================================== 4. Hector Gomez | SS | A+ Modesto | Age - 21 (3/09) | Signed - 2004 from Dominican Republic Contact - 35 Now | 45 Future Power - 35 | 50 Discipline - 30 | 40 Speed - 55 | 50 Defense - 50 | 55 Arm - 60 | 60 Instincts - 35 | 45 Final Grade - B- Body Type - tall and lanky, but projectable Notes Missed all but one game of the 2008 season because of an injury to his shin and then an injury to his arm, which forced him to undergo Tommy John Surgery. Gomez is mostly upside and projection at this point...he lost a year in development but will still be young for his league. His prospect rating does take a dip but he comes up at No. 4 because of a drop in production from some of Colorado's better prospects and a graduation of other top prospects to the MLB level. Hitting Gomez possesses poor plate discipline and has a tendency to get too anxious at the plate where he becomes too swing happy...discipline problems can lead to him falling behind in the count and his undeveloped pitch recognition skills lead him to a high number of strikeouts. Interestingly enough, his K% was very low (11%) in the Pioneer League (Rookie ball) in 2006. Much of this was due to Gomez's good hand-eye coordination skills and his ability to make contact with pitches he shouldn't have been swinging at...Gomez possesses great bat speed and shows the ability to make hard contact Going back to Gomez's 2007 season, at first glance his numbers don't look all that impressive, but dig a bit deeper and you'll notice the improvements he made over the course of the season before hitting in a wall in August: April - .227 BA, .175 ISO, 6.6 BB%, 28.3 K% May - .289 BA, .202 ISO, 4.1 BB%, 24 K% June - .326 BA, .127 ISO, 3.9 BB%, 20.6 K% July - .333 BA, .172 ISO, 7.4 BB%, 10.7 K% August - .193 BA, .076 ISO, 3.6 BB%, 19.6 K% His power probably isn't as good as the numbers indicate because the home park Gomez played in was more conducive for hitters. Defense - regarded as Gomez's strength...as I always mention, given the fact Gomez is a shortstop, his bat does not have to be all that special to succeed. Gomez is praised for his excellent range and rocket-like arm. It will be interesting to see where his arm strength is once he fully recovers from his Tommy John Surgery. He should continue to fill out and put on weight and while it probably will make him a bit slower as a runner, he is athletic enough to stay at shortstop and remain a perfectly viable defender at the position. Best Case Outcome - Gomez puts everything together and becomes a top-15 player at his position. I'm not confident in him reaching his upside and his floor is lower than some of the names that appear below him, but his upside is undeniably higher More Likely Outcome - Gomez struggles offensively but his defense is good enough to make him an acceptable, but below average starting shortstop... could also become a super utility guy who can play every position but catcher. =============================================================================== 5. Mike McKenry | C | B - R | A+ Modest | Age - 24 (in March) | Drafted - Round 7, 2006 Contact - 35 Now | 35 Future Power - 55 | 55 Discipline - 50 | 50 Speed - 30 | 25 Defense - 55 | 55 Arm - 60 | 60 Instincts - 60 | 60 Final Grade - B- Body Type - stocky, short, and well built...no projection left...heavy lower half Hitting Put up a .928 OPS in Single-A Asheville and an .825 OPS in A+ Modesto. When you factor in park effects, McKenry's adjusted OPS comes out to somewhere between .860 and an .870 OPS. Close to plus power...displays strong plate discipline with a high BB% in each of the last couple of years...K% increased by 4% last year, but it is not at a level where we should be hugely concerned. Was somewhat of an extreme fly ball hitter last year. Close to 30% of his fly balls were of the infield variety, which is one way to kill your batting average. About 12% of his fly ball became homeruns. Combine the high infield fly percentages, the low line drive percentages, the low BABIP rates (career .294), and the moderately high K% and there are concerns over whether McKenry will hit for a high enough average at the big league level. The Swing - has a small loading of the hands though there is some length to his swing, but plants and turns firmly on a front leg...generates solid bat speed Defense - strong defense behind the plate, known as a good receiver with strong leadership skills and a plus arm...McKenry threw out almost of half of opposing base stealers last year. One red flag is that he has been old for his level over the course of his career. He'll be 24 to start the year in AA. Best Case Outcome - An average everyday catcher with strong defense and plus power More Likely Outcome - A below average everyday catcher that lacks the contact ability to hit for a respectable average. At worst, he's a back-up. His defensive ability should find him a spot somewhere on an MLB roster. -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 140.112.5.3