[情報] Keith Law's top 100 prospects
30 Dexter Fowler CF Colorado Rockies
TOP '08 LEVEL: MLB UR 23
Fowler was one of the top players to just miss my list last year due to
concerns about his swing. He has always been a plus defender in center
with good speed. He showed patience as soon as he reached pro ball, but
he had swing issues from both sides of the plate; it's not surprising that
he had issues from the left side, since he's only been switch-hitting since
instructional league in 2004, but he was leaking badly as a right-handed
hitter as well.
The Rockies have done a great job cleaning up both swings -- he keeps his
weight back much better now than he did as recently as late 2007, and he
does a better job keeping his hands inside the ball when he's hitting
left-handed. He's still obviously more comfortable hitting right-handed,
but the improvement on both sides is a great sign, and he shows
above-average power from the left side when he gets his arms extended
on balls out over the plate.
Fowler's a plus runner -- albeit a below-average base stealer -- and
covers a lot of ground in center. He gets good marks for makeup and
work ethic, and given the strides he's already made, there's reason
to expect further improvement.
59 Christian Friedrich LHP Colorado Rockies
TOP '08 LEVEL: A (Asheville) IE 21
Friedrich was one of the top starters in the 2008 draft, sort of a poor
man's Brian Matusz, and made his bones with a strong showing in the Cape
Cod League in 2007. He has little projection right now, but his stuff is
major-league caliber: a solid-average fastball that might end up a 55, a
very tight curveball that's almost 12-6 with a last-second downward break,
a sharp cutter that he added his junior year and fringy changeup that he
often puts away in favor of the cutter. Friedrich's delivery is a little
rough, with long arm action and a high slot, which isn't great for command
or long-term health, although he made every start in three years at
Eastern Kentucky, fanning 327 in 245 innings in a poor conference.
Because he wasn't challenged much as an amateur, he hasn't had to refine
his command or work on mixing his pitches -- his curveball was too good
for that conference -- and he may not hit that wall until Double-A. Once
he passes that wall, he should be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter in the big
leagues.
72 Chris Nelson 2B Colorado Rockies
TOP '08 LEVEL: AA (Tulsa) 77 23
Nelson had a breakout 2007 season that seemed to reestablish him as a
prospect, only to follow it up with an awful 2008 that, it turns out, was
marred by a broken hamate bone. Nelson tried to play through it without
telling the Rockies that he was hurt, and only gave in and got it fixed
after hitting .229/.298/.349 over the first two months of the season. He
still wasn't right in the five weeks after his return, although he did
hit .321/.392/.595 in the Arizona Fall League, showing power and patience
and making more contact.
Nelson is a good athlete with very quick wrists and good bat speed, and
he has more power than you'd expect from a 5-foot-11, 175-pound hitter
(although I think that he's filled out since that weigh-in). Assuming
that the poor regular-season performance was largely a function of the
hamate injury, his main problem now is finding a position; he's a natural
shortstop, but because that's Troy Tulowitzki's job, he played second base
in the AFL and struggled even on routine plays.
He still has just 29 games of pro experience at second, so it's early.
Despite his tough 2008, I'm convinced that his bat will play at second or
even in center field.
74 Jhoulys Chacin RHP Colorado Rockies
TOP '08 LEVEL: A (Modesto) UR 21
Chacin will pitch this year at just 21 years old, but already has shown
excellent feel for pitching and average command. His fastball is
solid-average now and will occasionally flash plus, but he'll probably
settle in pitching at 90-92; it has good sink and generates a ton of
groundballs. His best pitch is his changeup, which he goes to against
both left- and right-handed hitters, although like all of his secondary
offerings it's inconsistent. His curveball projects as average, but right
now he doesn't use it often and it's only made small progress since he
signed.
His arm is quick and works well, but he's very long in the back and stiff
as he comes around his body. The feel, command, and presence of an out
pitch are all huge positives, but he has to stay healthy and make more
progress with the breaking ball.
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一次大意，便是永久的放棄
幸福的靈光，只一閃爍，便無聲跡....
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