[情報] Sporting News 2009 Rockies preview
Colorado Rockies preview
After a nearly perfect ending to a memorable 2007 season, the Rockies fell on
their collective face in 2008, winning just 74 games and finishing 10 games
behind the worst division winner (in terms of winning percentage) in the
majors. They traded superstar outfielder Matt Holliday to the A's early in the
offseason and have plenty of issues to address.
THREE QUESTIONS
1. Who will close?
Unlike some of the questions facing the Rockies this season, there potentially
are a couple of very good answers to this one. Manny Corpas and Huston Street
(acquired in the Holliday trade) both have closer experience, both have
excelled during the pressure of a pennant race and both have thrown well this
spring. Corpas allowed one run in his first six Cactus League innings, and
Street has been lights-out after a rough start in his new surroundings. However
it pans out, one will work the eighth inning and one will work the ninth. If
both are throwing well, it will be a huge plus for a team with which runs
likely will be at a premium.
2. How will Colorado replace Holliday's offensive production?
The slugger's spot in left field will be filled by Seth Smith, a career .313
hitter in the minors, but it will take a team effort to replace Holliday's
production. It won't be easy. First baseman Todd Helton's power has been zapped
by injuries, and third baseman Garrett Atkins' stats have declined each of the
past two seasons. The key for the lineup is the continued development of
catcher Chris Iannetta (18 homers for Colorado last season) and the healthy
return of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. Tulowitzki hit .291 with 24 homers and 99
RBIs in 2007 and was a catalyst in the team's World Series run, but he
struggled mightily to start 2008, then played in only 101 games because of
quad/hand injuries. If Tulowitzki is healthy and producing at his 2007 levels,
it will provide a major lift to the offense.
3. What about the youngsters?
The Rockies have a solid group of young players who are either ready to
contribute or will be in the near future. Ian Stewart has been the jewel of
Colorado's system for some time, but his path has been blocked at third by
Atkins and at first by Helton. He has learned to play second base in order to
get playing time in the majors, and his bat is ready for an everyday job.
Helton (and the $35.7 million remaining on his contract) also is blocking Joe
Koshansky, who hit .300 with 31 homers and 121 RBIs at Class AAA last season.
Leading the not-blocked, but-not-quite-ready category is Dexter Fowler, the
team's talented and future center fielder. He hit .335 with 9 homers and 20
stolen bases in Class AA last year. Righthander Jhoulys Chacin, who was
dominant (combined 18-3, 2.03 ERA at two Class A levels) in his first full
season. He is at least a full season away.
PROJECTED LINEUP
1. CF Ryan Spilborghs.
Limited leadoff experience, but career .374 OBP.
2. SS Troy Tulowitzki.
Must bounce back after injury-plagued '08.
3. 1B Todd Helton.
Club would be thrilled with .280 BA, 15 HRs.
4. 3B Garrett Atkins.
Could be traded if team stumbles early.
5. RF Brad Hawpe.
Three consecutive seasons with at least 22 HRs, .381 OBP.
6. C Chris Iannetta.
Crushed the ball (.462 BA) in the World Baseball Classic.
7. LF Seth Smith.
No one expects Matt Holliday-like production.
8. 2B Clint Barmes.
Good rebound season (.290 BA, 11 HR) after two horrible seasons.
PROJECTED ROTATION
1. RHP Aaron Cook.
Throws strikes, eats innings, keeps his team in games.
2. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez.
Struck out 10 in his four-inning WBC start.
3. RHP Jason Marquis.
Is 3-0 with 2.51 ERA in five career games at Coors Field.
4. LHP Jorge De La Rosa.
Talented, but inconsistent; had 2.61 ERA in final eight starts.
5. LHP Greg Smith.
Newcomer is battling Franklin Morales for job.
PROJECTED CLOSER
RHP Manny Corpas.
Rockies' former closer appears to have a slight edge over Street.
GRADES
Offense: C. Colorado, a middle-of-the-pack offensive squad last year, dealt
Holliday and opted to fill his position internally. If Tulowitzki and Helton
return to previous levels, this grade will go up. At leadoff, Spilborghs
doesn't have anywhere near the speed of Willy Taveras, but he is much better at
getting on base.
Pitching: C. The staff was dealt an early blow this spring when lefty Jeff
Francis opted to have surgery that should cost him the entire season. Cook and
Jimenez couldn't be much different in terms of style, but they should make a
solid 1-2 rotation punch. If Corpas and Street rebound, the late innings should
be OK.
Bench: C. At some point, Stewart has to win a full-time job, right? Until then,
he is a sub who can fill in at third, second and first base and provide power
off the bench. Jeff Baker can play multiple infield and outfield positions.
Fourth outfielder Matt Murton struggled in 2008 with the Cubs and A's.
Manager: B. It is funny how winning changes things. After the memorable 2007
season, Clint Hurdle could do no wrong. After the debacle that was 2008, Hurdle
could do nothing right. The reality lies somewhere in the middle, probably more
toward 2007 than 2008.
Sporting News prediction: There is potential in Denver, but there are too many
questions to predict anything better than a fourth-place finish in the N.L.
West. The Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Giants have better rotations, and they'll
all finish ahead of Colorado.
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