[閒聊] BABIP

看板Rockies作者lightring (請叫我機動男孩！)時間11年前 (2013/05/05 22:02)推噓2(2推 0噓 3→)

留言5則, 2人參與討論串1/1

小弟在Purple Row看到一篇寫BABIP的文章還蠻有意思的，試著翻看看，如果有錯誤請協助指 May 2013 Rockies xBABIP and associated thoughts. http://goo.gl/zX5zL xBABIP的一些聯想 So now that the calendar has turned over to May, I though it might be a good time to post the current xBABIP calculations for the Rockies as well as their related adjusted stats. If you have read any of my previous posts from last year or this, I'd encourage you to read my April post so you have an idea of how I arrive at these calculations. I'll spend more of this post discussing implications of the data. 五月了，是適合討論球員 "現今xBABIP計算值" 與 "統計值" 的時後了，如果你之前有看我的文章的話，我鼓勵你看我四月的文章，如此你會些概念我如何得到這些計算值，我會在這篇討論這些資料 To start it off here's the players BABIP chart. Name BABIP xBABIP cBABIP dBABIP Reid Brignac 0.333 0.300 0.290 0.033 Chris Nelson 0.333 0.314 0.342 0.019 Wilin Rosario 0.375 0.394 0.299 -0.019 Carlos Gonzalez 0.360 0.307 0.348 0.053 Eric Young 0.354 0.339 0.324 0.015 Todd Helton 0.294 0.316 0.332 -0.022 Dexter Fowler 0.338 0.341 0.352 -0.003 Troy Tulowitzki 0.303 0.297 0.313 0.006 Jordan Pacheco 0.392 0.359 0.343 0.033 Michael Cuddyer 0.346 0.382 0.306 -0.036 Josh Rutledge 0.250 0.331 0.297 -0.081 xBABIP = expected BABIP, cBABIP = Career BABIP, dBABIP =BABIP - xBABIP 我們從這個表開始，xBABIP是預期值、cBABIP是生涯值、dBABIP為BABIP減xBABIP So let's first look at a few players who are absolutely destroying the ball, Cuddyer and Rosario. These two Rockies are carrying the highest xBABIP. This generally means they are hitting the ball the hardest. Now, they are both carrying a negative dBABIP which would normally say they're being unlucky, however chances are better their xBABIP will normalize to their cBABIP as they cool off from a hot April, then they'll maintain an xBABIP that high long enough for a normalization of BABIP to xBABIP. So the verdict on these two is: expect a regression, not because of luck but just because they will cool off, however they'll still have respectable numbers. 先來看不停把球打進場內的Cuddyer and Rosario 這兩位的xBABIP值最高，說明他們球打的最結實但他兩位的dBABIP是負值，意味著他們也比較不幸運然而他們的xBABIP將會修正至它們的cBABIP，也就是四月後手感會較冷然後他們會維持xBABIP的高檔到BABIP修正至xBABIP 所以預期他們成績下修，但不是因為運氣是因為手感較冷但還是有打出該有的表現 Next is Tulowitzki and Fowler, two Rockies who are performing about as you'd expect, based on their dBABIP being very close to 0 while also performing near their career numbers. It is tough to predict much here for these two, they could stay steady or go on a hot streak or cold streak as baseball players are prone to do before normalizing again. 接著是Tulo與小花，兩為表現的符合你我預用他們的dBABIP接近零來說明，就是表現的和生涯成績相當所以他們可以會打出一波高潮，也可能陷入低潮 Carlos Gonzalez and Jordan Pacheco have the highest positive dBABIP's suggesting they're being the luckiest right now. For Pacheco, I'd expect a regression from because his BABIp is not just astronomically high but his xBABIP and cBABIP and both fairly close together suggesting that's about what to expect from him. Carlos, on the other hand, is a little more interesting of a case study. His xBABIP is a lot lower then his actual BABIP which suggests he's been pretty lucky so far this spring. However, Carlos' BABIP is pretty close to his cBABIP which is normally a very good predictive tool for season totals. I'd predict that we're going to see him starting to hit the ball harder and raising up his xBABIP but the results won't be a lot different then what we are seeing right now. 卡剛和波切口有最高正值的dBABIP，說明他們現在是運氣最好的兩位波切口，我預測他會下修是因為他的BABIP高於xBABIP與cBABIP，而x與c兩值又相近卡剛的狀況比較特別，他的xBABIP遠低於真實的BABAIP，說明他四月運氣很好但BABIP又和cBABIP相近，而cBABIP是一個預測整季成積的好工具所以我預測他會把球打的更接實，上修他的xBABIP，不過結果和目前看的會相去不遠~ This only leaves 1 player that I want to discuss today, Josh Rutledge. Rutledge is by far the unluckiest Rockies player carrying a -0.081 dBABIP, his cBABIP is low but with a young player it's not quite as useful of a tool, mostly because his low BABIP this spring has a big hit on that career total because of his low number of career late appearances. So instead let's look at some of his season totals to get an idea for what his cBABIP might be. 最後我只再討論羅莉，他是最不幸的球員，dBABIP只有-0.081 他的cBABIP低，不過年輕球員看這個並不是這麼準因為這個春天的低BABIP拉低了為數不多的生涯打席等這季打完再來看cBABIP也不遲 In 2011 Rutledge had a .414 in Modesto, 2012 .345 in Tulsa and .315 in his MLB debut season. Now minor league BABIP is inflated because of poorer pitching defense but still it gives us a picture that he should be a moderately high BABIP hitter at least. This also passes the eye test with his blazing speed to first base. Overall this paints a picture of Rutledge being my candidate for a breakout month of May. He's maintained good approach, hitting the ball well and increasing is BB rate dramatically. If he keeps this up while BABIP normalizes out expect a May similar to Fowler's May last year. 羅莉在2011於A+打出.411，在2012於AA打出.345且於MLB打出.315 在小聯盟誇張的BABIP是因為較少的打數，不過至少仍能看出他應該是個高BABIP的打者，而且他到一壘的速度飛快，所以我覺得他在五月會是個黑馬、亮點他維持好的打擊和增加保送，上修BABIP到小花去年五月的值(是多少呀!?) I've already been quite wordy in this post so I'm just going to leave you with one last table. This one show the players current splits and next to the splits they'd have if they were hitting their xBABIP number instead of their actual BABIP. 說的有點多，我最後秀一個表，是關於一些特定打擊數據，在球員現有的BABIP的數據，與打成xBABIP之後的數據 (不附上，請參考網頁 http://goo.gl/NZFcK ) -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) ◆ From: 61.228.59.156