[翻譯] Did Jon Gray Deserve His Demotion?

看板Rockies作者ygjhsu (杰)時間6年前 (2018/07/16 02:19)推噓2(2推 0噓 0→)

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這篇文章出來大約兩週了覺得蠻有意思的剛好抓鬼大師Gray重返大聯盟簡單翻譯一下原文連結： Did Jon Gray Deserve His Demotion to the Minors? Jon Gray真的該被下放小聯盟？ by Craig Edwards July 2, 2018 : In one sense, Jon Gray’s 2018 season has been pretty successful. He’s struck : out 29% of the batters he’s faced this year, for example, which ranks 12th : among 90 qualified starters. His walk rate, at 7%, sits in the top third for : starters. His home-run rate of 1.1 per nine innings is right in the middle of : the pack among that sample, too, as are his 92 innings. 從K% 、BB%、HR/9這些數據看起來, Jon Gray 2018球季還算成功嘛 : That’s he’s done of his work at elevation in Colorado makes those numbers : even more impressive. His 3.07 FIP has produced a 2.5 WAR, one of the top 15 : figures in baseball. Unfortunately, the Rockies haven’t received the benefit : of that good pitching. In fact, Gray’s 5.77 ERA ranks 88th out 90 starters. : The massive difference between his ERA and FIP would represent the largest such : disparity in baseball history, and it was of sufficient concern to the Rockies : to send Gray to Triple-A. 考慮到這些數據有一半是在山上投出來的，是否看起來更猛呢？很不幸的是, Gray最終只繳出了5.77ERA的成績, 無法幫助球隊。巨大的FIP-ERA差距史上僅見, 也讓洛磯將Gray下放3A : Not too long ago, Jay Jaffe wrote a piece on Jon Lester, whose season was also : busting historical norms. Lester’s ERA was significantly lower than his FIP. : So far this season, Gray is Lester’s opposite. The graph below shows every : pitcher’s FIP and ERA this season. 另一篇文章說過Lester ERA遠低於FIP (Josh有翻譯過) Gray完全是他的相反. 看圖就知道囉 Josh 頻道: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZI2gTSt1CuA

https://i.imgur.com/q1vnkKc.png

: You can see Jon Lester over there on the left on his own. If you go to the : right, you can see Jon Gray with nobody even close to him. It should be : evident that, in the middle, most players are reasonably close when it comes : to ERA and FIP. The average differential per player 0.53. Of the 88 ERA and FIP : pairs in this sample, 77 are within one run. So far this season, Gray’s 2.69 : ERA-FIP is roughly double the player closest to him, as the table below shows. 一般來說FIP與ERA有明顯的正相關, 大部分投手落在虛線附近, 但Gray很明顯離群 Biggest ERA-FIP Gaps, 2018 Name Team ERA FIP E-F Jon Gray Rockies 5.77 3.08 2.69 Jason Hammel Royals 5.56 4.20 1.37 Lance Lynn Twins 5.49 4.37 1.12 Sonny Gray Yankees 5.44 4.39 1.05 Nick Pivetta Phillies 4.71 3.68 1.03 Luke Weaver Cardinals 5.16 4.22 0.93 Vince Velasquez Phillies 4.69 3.81 0.87 Luis Castillo Reds 5.85 5.03 0.82 Carlos Carrasco Indians 4.24 3.42 0.82 Zack Wheeler Mets 4.47 3.66 0.80 這些投手今年的ERA遠高於FIP : That isn’t just remarkable for this season. Since 1901, here are the biggest : differences among qualified pitchers. Largest ERA-FIP Since 1901 Name Team Season ERA FIP E-F Jon Gray Rockies 2018 5.77 3.08 2.69 Jack Knott Browns 1936 7.29 5.16 2.12 George Caster Athletics 1940 6.56 4.52 2.04 Hub Pruett Phillies 1927 6.05 4.11 1.94 Chris Bosio Brewers 1987 5.24 3.38 1.86 John Burkett Rangers 1998 5.68 3.89 1.78 Bert Blyleven Twins 1988 5.43 3.66 1.77 Joe Oeschger Braves 1923 5.68 3.91 1.77 Ernie Wingard Browns 1927 6.56 4.80 1.76 Bobo Newsom – – – 1942 4.73 2.99 1.74 Ricky Nolasco Marlins 2009 5.06 3.35 1.71 Early Wynn Senators 1942 5.12 3.42 1.70 Jack Lamabe Red Sox 1964 5.89 4.21 1.68 Rick Wise Phillies 1968 4.55 2.89 1.66 Pol Perritt Cardinals 1913 5.25 3.59 1.66 : There are a few Hall of Famers on that list in Blyleven and Wynn, but nobody : comes close to what Gray has done thus far. Just to get a few more familiar : names, here’s the same list since 1995. 放大到1901年以後來看, Gray 的ERA-FIP還是一樣史詩級的呢裡面甚至還有HoF等級的投手 Largest ERA-FIP Since 1995 Name Team Season ERA FIP E-F Jon Gray Rockies 2018 5.77 3.08 2.69 John Burkett Rangers 1998 5.68 3.89 1.78 Ricky Nolasco Marlins 2009 5.06 3.35 1.71 Jaime Navarro White Sox 1997 5.79 4.21 1.59 Jose Mercedes Orioles 2001 5.82 4.32 1.51 LaTroy Hawkins Twins 1999 6.66 5.16 1.50 Edinson Volquez – – – 2013 5.71 4.24 1.47 Nate Robertson Tigers 2008 6.35 4.99 1.36 Derek Lowe Braves 2011 5.05 3.70 1.35 Clay Buchholz Red Sox 2014 5.34 4.01 1.33 Jose Jimenez Cardinals 1999 5.85 4.53 1.32 Zack Greinke Royals 2005 5.80 4.49 1.31 Mike Oquist Athletics 1998 6.22 4.93 1.30 : There are some good pitchers on this list, too, including Zack Greinke. The odd : s are against Gray maintaining such a high difference. With half a season to go : Gray’s ERA is likely to be considerably closer to his FIP moving forward. If, : the rest of the way, Gray’s FIP is one run lower than his ERA like it was in : 2016, his ERA will end up right around Chris Bosio’s 1.86 number from 1988. If : Gray’s ERA is half a run higher than his FIP like it was last year, he’ll end : up with something close to Jaime Navarro’s 1.59 from 1997 and not even crack : the top-15 all-time. 看起來Gray應該是沒辦法繼續維持這麼高的ERA-FIP差距, 隨著球季進行, ERA會慢慢接近 FIP. 甚至可能排不進史上前15 : As we are getting close to the All-Star Break, it might be useful to take a : look at the biggest half-season differences from our splits leaderboards, which : go back to 2002. Here are the biggest first-half differences for pitchers with : at least 70 first-half innings. Largest ERA-FIP by Half Since 2002 Name Team Season 1st IP 1st ERA 1st FIP 1st ERA-FIP Glendon Rusch MIL 2003 82.1 8.09 4.38 3.71 Jon Gray COL 2018 92.0 5.77 3.08 2.69 Tim Lincecum SFG 2012 96.2 6.42 4.01 2.42 Ubaldo Jimenez BAL 2016 79.1 7.03 4.63 2.40 Zack Greinke MIL 2011 74.1 5.45 3.05 2.40 Colby Lewis TEX 2014 84.0 6.54 4.17 2.37 Ricky Nolasco FLA 2009 90.2 5.76 3.56 2.20 Jake Arrieta BAL 2012 101.1 6.13 4.04 2.09 Edwin Jackson TBD 2007 74.1 7.26 5.19 2.07 John Lackey BOS 2011 79.0 6.84 4.84 2.00 Manny Parra MIL 2009 71.2 6.78 4.80 1.98 Ryan Dempster CIN 2003 96.0 6.75 4.78 1.97 Sidney Ponson BAL 2004 113.0 6.29 4.35 1.94 Edinson Volquez SDP 2013 109.2 5.74 3.85 1.89 AVERAGE — — 89.0 6.54 4.28 2.26 就算只看上半季，Gray的ERA-FIP差距也是很驚人的 (from 2002) : That was quite a performance from Glendon Rusch. He would actually go on to : have a couple productive seasons as a Cubs swingman, but 2003 might have : soured the Brewers on his future. Scanning the list for similar performances to : Gray, another Brewer, Zach Greinke, sticks out with a near-identical FIP to : Gray this season. As the average indicates, we have roughly average to maybe : below-average pitchers by FIP accompanied by horrendous ERAs. The next table : shows how those players performed in the second half. 看起來2011年還在酒鬼的Greinke上半季有著跟2018 Gray類似的數據他們下半季表現又是如何? Second-Half Performance for Largest ERA-FIP Name Team Season 1st FIP ERA-FIP 2nd IP 2nd ERA 2nd FIP ERA-FIP Glendon Rusch MIL 2003 4.38 3.71 18.0 4.00 2.14 1.86 Tim Lincecum SFG 2012 4.01 2.42 89.1 3.83 4.36 -0.53 Ubaldo Jimenez BAL 2016 4.63 2.40 52.2 2.39 3.60 -1.21 Zack Greinke MIL 2011 3.05 2.40 97.1 2.59 2.92 -0.33 Colby Lewis TEX 2014 4.17 2.37 86.1 3.86 4.75 -0.89 Ricky Nolasco FLA 2009 3.56 2.20 94.1 4.39 3.15 1.24 Jake Arrieta BAL 2012 4.04 2.09 0.0 — — 0.00 Edwin Jackson TBD 2007 5.19 2.07 86.1 4.48 4.62 -0.14 John Lackey BOS 2011 4.84 2.00 81.0 6.00 4.58 1.42 Manny Parra MIL 2009 4.80 1.98 68.1 5.93 4.96 0.97 Ryan Dempster CIN 2003 4.78 1.97 16.2 6.48 6.63 -0.15 Sidney Ponson BAL 2004 4.35 1.94 102.2 4.21 4.54 -0.33 Edinson Volquez SDP 2013 3.85 1.89 59.2 5.73 4.98 0.75 AVERAGE — — 4.28 2.26 66.0 4.49 4.27 0.20 : As we might expect, the players’ first-half FIPs line up pretty well with : their second-half FIPs. What’s interesting is that the second-half ERAs also : line up pretty well with the FIPs from both the first and second halves. While : this is what we would expect to see, it’s nice to have it show up so neatly. 這些投手上下半季FIP沒有明顯差異, 而且下半季ERA也有回歸FIP的趨勢 : One problem the above doesn’t solve is why Gray’s FIP, specfically, is so : much lower than his ERA. A portion of the responsibility goes to his home park. : Pitchers routinely post higher ERAs than FIPs in Coors Field because BABIP is a : lot higher in Coors Field. Balls in play are not incorporated into FIP, so : larger swings, like the one we see at Coors Field, are going to drive up ERA a : bit. That only explains a very small portion of Gray’s differential, though. : For the rest, please see the graph below depicting BABIP and left-on-base : percentages for all qualified starting pitchers. BABIP高的話, ERA很容易高於FIP, 因為FIP沒考慮BABIP. 所以山上的投手很容易ERA就比 FIP高呢, 但Gray今年如此巨大差異, 無法完全用BABIP高來解釋, 還有其他原因 https://i.imgur.com/K3tmmcU.png

: Previous research indicates that a vast majority of the difference between FIP : and ERA is due to two factors, the two stats seen in the table above: BABIP and : LOB%. Gray is the worst in both, about 50 points clear in BABIP and with few : peers in LOB% this season. 原來ERA-FIP會受到BABIP跟LOB% (殘壘)的影響, Gray剛好是BABIP爆高(打出去的球容易形成安打)跟LOB%爆低(上壘跑者容易回來得分) 的雙重受害者 : A really poor BABIP might be an indicator that Gray is no longer an : MLB-caliber pitcher. The rest of his stats say otherwise, however. Per Baseball : Savant, his expected BABIP is about 50 points lower than his actual figure. As : league-wide expected BABIP is about 20 points higher than actual BABIP, even : once you factor in Coors Field, Gray’s BABIP is about 50 points too high : based on the quality of contact, leaving the rest to luck and defense. 過高的BABIP, 也許代表Gray真的只是大聯盟發球機? 其他數據卻不是呈現這樣的趨勢證明Gray不是不夠好, 可能只是受到守備的影響或單純運氣不好 : As for left-on-base percentage, if it were really high, we might think that : perhaps Gray has trouble pitching with runners on base and that Gray’s 1.91 : FIP with bases empty compared to 4.67 with runners on — and his .274 xwOBA : with bases empty compared to .334 with runners on — speaks to the same issue. : However, the latter number is roughly average for the league regarding xwOBA : and pretty close to average for FIP once Coors Field is factored in. Jeff : Zimmerman theorized that the issue might be pitching meatballs behind in the : count, but even Gray’s numbers behind in the count are similar to an average : pitcher in those situations. His velocity has been down in his last few starts. : Ben Lindbergh noted the absence of competitive pitches from Gray this season. : However, none of those theories explains a league-worst left-on-base rate or : the massively high BABIP. The Rockies would have to keep Gray in Triple-A the : rest of the season to game his service time, so that is an unlikely motivation, : although if he hits the disabled list in the minors he would not accrue MLB : service time like he would if he were DL’d now and something more serious was : discovered. 至於LOB%很低這部分說不定Gray壘上有人真的越投越不對勁？但仔細看數據都沒辦法看出Gray為何特別容易壘上有人時掉分. 這幾場球速降低、缺乏決勝球都可能是Jon Gray的問題, 但都無法解釋史詩級的BABIP或是 LOB%, 考慮到service time, 洛磯應該不會再拉上Gray了, 或是可能放到DL避免service time增加 : Jon Gray is performing historically so far, but not in the way he would like. : Now he’s pitching in a city he’d probably prefer not to. Based on the past : history of others, as well as himself, there seems to be a pretty good chance : — absent injury — that his ERA is going to be headed downward soon even if : the big-league Rockies won’t be seeing the benefit of that downturn at the : moment. Gray成績可以說是史詩級的...不是他希望的那樣. 但如果讓他回來, 有很高的機會ERA 能趕快消腫喔 -- ※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 123.195.192.223 ※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Rockies/M.1531678755.A.2C1.html ※ 編輯: ygjhsu (123.195.192.223), 07/16/2018 02:20:33 ※ 編輯: ygjhsu (123.195.192.223), 07/16/2018 02:20:39 ※ 編輯: ygjhsu (123.195.192.223), 07/16/2018 02:21:25